Bemærk at Pareto anser QEC for en oplagt købskandidat fra 2011, hvor der forhåbentlig er mindre usikkerhed i kraft af de boreresultater vi venter på nu i løbet af efteråret startende med den første af dem måske i den kommende uge.
De har nedsat kursmålet til 45 kr. fra 60 kr. men med en kurs p.t. på 17 er der stadig fine perspektiver i dette. :)
Analysen er fra den 9.9.2010.
Risk/reward remains attractive
With evidence of higher break even gas prices for several
shale plays, we adopt a more cautious approach to the Utica
shale, and consequently adjust our QEC Target Price to NOK
45/share, from NOK 60/share. However, QEC remains one of
our top picks in our E&P coverage and we reiterate BUY
Industry shale gas break even price higher than earlier expected
Increasing data on shale gas show greater variability in well
performance. Our analysis of data from IEA as well as some of the
largest shale companies in the US show that average break even
prices for shale is closer to USD 6/mcf, well above the companies'
guidance at around USD 4-5/mcf. We believe a consequence of
this is that North American natural gas markets will become tighter,
leading a more significant price recovery than what the market at
present seems to expect.
Applying a higher break even assumption to Utica modeling
Based on the data available to date, we have in our modeling of
Utica used assumptions implying a break even realized price of just
over USD 4/mcf. With the evidence of greater variability in
recoverable reserves of shale wells, leading to higher than
expected average break even gas price for several shale plays, we
believe it is prudent to assume a higher break even price also for
Utica. With this, our valuation of Questerre is reduced to NOK
45/share, from NOK 60/share.
Questerre remains one of our top picks
Although we now take a more cautious view on the valuation
potential, we still view the upside potential of the QEC share as
very attractive. The company holds a significant land position in the
fairway of the Utica shale in Quebec, in the parts of Utica which are
likely to be the most commercial. Further, gas in this area
commands a premium of over USD 0.5/mcf compared to Henry
Hub, making Utica more robust in periods of low gas prices. With
QEC's pure play focus on Utica, it also the most obvious takeover
candidate when M&A attention picks up in Utica (this activity is
expected to start in 2011, when further derisking has taken place).
Finally, we think the flip side of higher break even prices of shale is
higher natural gas prices, which QEC should benefit from.
Target Price adjusted to NOK 45 (old NOK 60) - BUY reiterated
Following the more conservative assumptions on average well
performance, we adjust our Target Price to NOK 45. With the share
price currently at NOK 17, the risk/reward remains exciting, and we
reiterate our BUY recommendation.
The recommendation was not presented to the issuer before dissemination.
De har nedsat kursmålet til 45 kr. fra 60 kr. men med en kurs p.t. på 17 er der stadig fine perspektiver i dette. :)
Analysen er fra den 9.9.2010.
Risk/reward remains attractive
With evidence of higher break even gas prices for several
shale plays, we adopt a more cautious approach to the Utica
shale, and consequently adjust our QEC Target Price to NOK
45/share, from NOK 60/share. However, QEC remains one of
our top picks in our E&P coverage and we reiterate BUY
Industry shale gas break even price higher than earlier expected
Increasing data on shale gas show greater variability in well
performance. Our analysis of data from IEA as well as some of the
largest shale companies in the US show that average break even
prices for shale is closer to USD 6/mcf, well above the companies'
guidance at around USD 4-5/mcf. We believe a consequence of
this is that North American natural gas markets will become tighter,
leading a more significant price recovery than what the market at
present seems to expect.
Applying a higher break even assumption to Utica modeling
Based on the data available to date, we have in our modeling of
Utica used assumptions implying a break even realized price of just
over USD 4/mcf. With the evidence of greater variability in
recoverable reserves of shale wells, leading to higher than
expected average break even gas price for several shale plays, we
believe it is prudent to assume a higher break even price also for
Utica. With this, our valuation of Questerre is reduced to NOK
45/share, from NOK 60/share.
Questerre remains one of our top picks
Although we now take a more cautious view on the valuation
potential, we still view the upside potential of the QEC share as
very attractive. The company holds a significant land position in the
fairway of the Utica shale in Quebec, in the parts of Utica which are
likely to be the most commercial. Further, gas in this area
commands a premium of over USD 0.5/mcf compared to Henry
Hub, making Utica more robust in periods of low gas prices. With
QEC's pure play focus on Utica, it also the most obvious takeover
candidate when M&A attention picks up in Utica (this activity is
expected to start in 2011, when further derisking has taken place).
Finally, we think the flip side of higher break even prices of shale is
higher natural gas prices, which QEC should benefit from.
Target Price adjusted to NOK 45 (old NOK 60) - BUY reiterated
Following the more conservative assumptions on average well
performance, we adjust our Target Price to NOK 45. With the share
price currently at NOK 17, the risk/reward remains exciting, and we
reiterate our BUY recommendation.
The recommendation was not presented to the issuer before dissemination.
Og til Jer der måske er nye og gerne vil vide mere om Questerre - se her:
http://www.questerre.com/
QEC er noteret i Canada og Norge.
http://www.questerre.com/
QEC er noteret i Canada og Norge.
13/9 2010 13:11 Hegu 0
33346 Jeg vil nu godt se lidt flere PI-venner her:
http://www.facebook.com/profile.php?id=1112502684&v=wall&story_fbid=144009645640182&ref=notif¬if_t=feed_comment_reply#!/pages/Calgary-AB/Questerre-Energy-Corporation/139149832779894?ref=sgm
Med venlig hilsen
Hegu
http://www.facebook.com/profile.php?id=1112502684&v=wall&story_fbid=144009645640182&ref=notif¬if_t=feed_comment_reply#!/pages/Calgary-AB/Questerre-Energy-Corporation/139149832779894?ref=sgm
Med venlig hilsen
Hegu14/9 2010 20:54 Gjern 033451 Vedr. QEC:
http://watch.bnn.ca/market-call-tonight/september-2010/market-call-tonight-september-13-2010/#clip347672
Om naturgaspriser ca. 2.43 og QEC ved 5.10 :)
http://watch.bnn.ca/market-call-tonight/september-2010/market-call-tonight-september-13-2010/#clip347672
Om naturgaspriser ca. 2.43 og QEC ved 5.10 :)
