Market update July.2015.
Some pressure is coming to the US economy.
First: higher US-Dollar hurts Export.
http://www.alhambrapartners.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/04/ABOOK-March-2015-ExIm-Exports-Recent.jpg
Second: higher Long Term Bond Yields hurts Construction & Real Estate.
US Building Material s Fixtures Index we have a Divergence on RSI vs. Price and the index is losing steam.
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=%24DJUSBD&p=M&b=5&g=0&id=p20533198928&a=368522782&r=1433532880360&cmd=print
Dynamic Building Construction Intellidex about to roll over too ??
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=%24DWC&p=W&b=5&g=0&id=p40847002755&a=368656723&r=1433533271791&cmd=print
US Real Estate has been weak since early 2015.
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=VNQ&p=D&yr=2&mn=0&dy=0&id=p43145866091&a=251824803&r=1433534208017&cmd=print
US real Estate vs. 30 other countries.
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=VNQ&p=D&yr=2&mn=0&dy=0&id=p43145866091&a=251824803&r=1437298612469&cmd=print
Latest on Employment:
http://econsnapshot.com/2015/06/05/employment-gains-long-duration-unemployment-remains/#comments
Retail (daily) is in Down-trend.
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=XRT&p=D&b=5&g=0&id=p93553207925&a=252394011&r=1433533436961&cmd=print
Retail (Monthly) is quite extended.
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=RTH&p=M&b=5&g=0&id=p77441393661&a=254303027&r=1433533551806&cmd=print
Global Auto Index find it hard to make new highs.
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=CARZ&p=W&b=5&g=0&id=p80418821097&a=370336516&r=1433534353931&cmd=print
Railroad and Transportation Index has been weak since start of 2015.
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=%24DJUSRR&p=D&b=5&g=0&id=p48340548768&a=228774040&r=1433532446982&cmd=print
NYSE Composite Index (monthly) . RSI, MACD and Stochastics indicates that the Index is in a topping process.
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=%24NYA&p=M&b=5&g=0&id=p49521858960&a=228555128&r=1433533708901&cmd=print
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=%24NYAD&p=D&yr=3&mn=2&dy=0&id=p87768943780&a=214810757&r=1433534028086&cmd=print
German DAX (daily) tested support at 200 MA and is now above 50 MA again.
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=%24DAX&p=D&b=5&g=0&id=p09866691438&a=211163269&r=1433534707156&cmd=print
Nasdaq Composite (monthly) Divergence on RSI vs. Price.
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=%24COMPQ&p=M&b=5&g=0&id=p75934912218&a=263062341&r=1433534917186&cmd=print
Guggenheim S&P 500 Equal Weight ETF (RSP) Equal weight has previously broken down in advance of corrections in SP-500.
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=RSP&p=D&yr=3&mn=6&dy=0&id=p67675830772&a=299356839&r=1437298373768&cmd=print
Wilshire 5000 (weekly).
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=%24WLSH&p=W&b=5&g=0&id=p17178908563&a=217859758&r=1433535205262&cmd=print
Some of the indicators signals a possible correction in SP-500.
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=%24SPX&p=M&b=5&g=0&id=p09411275573&a=243698081&r=1433535386805&cmd=print
Higher Bond Yields puts pressure on Dividend Stocks.
18 is a crucial number when you look at cycles in US-Dollar.
On the weekly chart I have added the 18 Month cycle which is at a top at the moment.
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=%24USD&p=W&st=2004-10-02&en=today&id=p58590645760&a=209968877&r=1430651492085&cmd=print
On the monthly chart I have added the 18 Year cycle which will have the next top at approximately Year 2020. ( It seems that 17 Years is the exact number.)
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=%24USD&p=M&st=1980-02-22&en=today&id=p45218146526&a=390966643&r=1430652203580&cmd=print
Short term (daily) the Dollar is in Down-trend and will be towards the end of 2015.
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=%24USD&p=D&b=5&g=0&id=p91924918603&a=225033797&r=1433530874796&cmd=print
On the Bond side we have an interesting setup in Yield Curve. Yield on Long Term Bonds rice faster than Short Term Bonds.
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=%24UST30Y&p=D&yr=3&mn=0&dy=0&id=p38215461435&a=334964783&r=1433706441747&cmd=print
The Yield Curve on 5 vs. 30 year Bond Yield tells us we might face weak economy again. Used the slope indicator as leading Indicator of the Yield Curve.
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=%24FVX%3A%24TYX&p=W&st=2000-05-15&en=today&id=p32897108122&a=408381414&r=1431720689814&cmd=print
Same chart with SP-500 added.
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=%24FVX%3A%24TYX&p=W&st=2000-05-15&en=today&id=p89659688584&a=408381414&r=1437297844254&cmd=print
Martin Prings inflation Index.
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=!PRII&p=M&yr=20&mn=0&dy=0&id=p10606342747&a=369860779&r=1437298680267&cmd=print
Larry Edelson on Deflation.
http://www.moneyandmarkets.com/deflation-picking-even-momentum-71568#.VXg8r0YYnR8
MARTIN ARMSTRONG, once a US based trillion dollar financial adviser, used the number pi to predict economic turning points with precision. When some big New York bankers asked him to join the club to help them to take over Russia, he refused to join the manipulation. A few days later the FBI stormed his offices accusing him of a 3 billion dollar Ponzi Scheme - an attempt to stop him talking about the real Ponzi Scheme of debts that the US has built up over the years and which he thinks starts to collapse after October 1, 2015, a major pi turning point he is predicting.
http://www.zdf.de/ZDFmediathek/kanaluebersicht/500#/beitrag/video/2391132/M-Armstrong-%C3%BCber-die-%22g%C3%B6ttliche-Formel%22
http://forecaster-movie.com/en/the-forecaster/
http://theforecaster-interactive.com/
Economic Conference
http://armstrongeconomics.com/conferences-dvds/world-economic-conference-october-2015/
Herbert Hoover's memoir.
http://www.amazon.co.uk/Memoirs-Herbert-Hoover-Depression-1929-1941/dp/1447402472/ref=sr_1_1?ie=UTF8&qid=1430979560&sr=8-1&keywords=The+Memoirs+of+Herbert+Hoover
Have a nice summer.
Niels.
https://www.facebook.com/pages/Teknisk-Analyse-TA-Business-cycles/168152833231786
Some pressure is coming to the US economy.
First: higher US-Dollar hurts Export.
http://www.alhambrapartners.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/04/ABOOK-March-2015-ExIm-Exports-Recent.jpg
Second: higher Long Term Bond Yields hurts Construction & Real Estate.
US Building Material s Fixtures Index we have a Divergence on RSI vs. Price and the index is losing steam.
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=%24DJUSBD&p=M&b=5&g=0&id=p20533198928&a=368522782&r=1433532880360&cmd=print
Dynamic Building Construction Intellidex about to roll over too ??
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=%24DWC&p=W&b=5&g=0&id=p40847002755&a=368656723&r=1433533271791&cmd=print
US Real Estate has been weak since early 2015.
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=VNQ&p=D&yr=2&mn=0&dy=0&id=p43145866091&a=251824803&r=1433534208017&cmd=print
US real Estate vs. 30 other countries.
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=VNQ&p=D&yr=2&mn=0&dy=0&id=p43145866091&a=251824803&r=1437298612469&cmd=print
Latest on Employment:
http://econsnapshot.com/2015/06/05/employment-gains-long-duration-unemployment-remains/#comments
Retail (daily) is in Down-trend.
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=XRT&p=D&b=5&g=0&id=p93553207925&a=252394011&r=1433533436961&cmd=print
Retail (Monthly) is quite extended.
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=RTH&p=M&b=5&g=0&id=p77441393661&a=254303027&r=1433533551806&cmd=print
Global Auto Index find it hard to make new highs.
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=CARZ&p=W&b=5&g=0&id=p80418821097&a=370336516&r=1433534353931&cmd=print
Railroad and Transportation Index has been weak since start of 2015.
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=%24DJUSRR&p=D&b=5&g=0&id=p48340548768&a=228774040&r=1433532446982&cmd=print
NYSE Composite Index (monthly) . RSI, MACD and Stochastics indicates that the Index is in a topping process.
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=%24NYA&p=M&b=5&g=0&id=p49521858960&a=228555128&r=1433533708901&cmd=print
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=%24NYAD&p=D&yr=3&mn=2&dy=0&id=p87768943780&a=214810757&r=1433534028086&cmd=print
German DAX (daily) tested support at 200 MA and is now above 50 MA again.
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=%24DAX&p=D&b=5&g=0&id=p09866691438&a=211163269&r=1433534707156&cmd=print
Nasdaq Composite (monthly) Divergence on RSI vs. Price.
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=%24COMPQ&p=M&b=5&g=0&id=p75934912218&a=263062341&r=1433534917186&cmd=print
Guggenheim S&P 500 Equal Weight ETF (RSP) Equal weight has previously broken down in advance of corrections in SP-500.
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=RSP&p=D&yr=3&mn=6&dy=0&id=p67675830772&a=299356839&r=1437298373768&cmd=print
Wilshire 5000 (weekly).
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=%24WLSH&p=W&b=5&g=0&id=p17178908563&a=217859758&r=1433535205262&cmd=print
Some of the indicators signals a possible correction in SP-500.
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=%24SPX&p=M&b=5&g=0&id=p09411275573&a=243698081&r=1433535386805&cmd=print
Higher Bond Yields puts pressure on Dividend Stocks.
18 is a crucial number when you look at cycles in US-Dollar.
On the weekly chart I have added the 18 Month cycle which is at a top at the moment.
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=%24USD&p=W&st=2004-10-02&en=today&id=p58590645760&a=209968877&r=1430651492085&cmd=print
On the monthly chart I have added the 18 Year cycle which will have the next top at approximately Year 2020. ( It seems that 17 Years is the exact number.)
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=%24USD&p=M&st=1980-02-22&en=today&id=p45218146526&a=390966643&r=1430652203580&cmd=print
Short term (daily) the Dollar is in Down-trend and will be towards the end of 2015.
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=%24USD&p=D&b=5&g=0&id=p91924918603&a=225033797&r=1433530874796&cmd=print
On the Bond side we have an interesting setup in Yield Curve. Yield on Long Term Bonds rice faster than Short Term Bonds.
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=%24UST30Y&p=D&yr=3&mn=0&dy=0&id=p38215461435&a=334964783&r=1433706441747&cmd=print
The Yield Curve on 5 vs. 30 year Bond Yield tells us we might face weak economy again. Used the slope indicator as leading Indicator of the Yield Curve.
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=%24FVX%3A%24TYX&p=W&st=2000-05-15&en=today&id=p32897108122&a=408381414&r=1431720689814&cmd=print
Same chart with SP-500 added.
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=%24FVX%3A%24TYX&p=W&st=2000-05-15&en=today&id=p89659688584&a=408381414&r=1437297844254&cmd=print
Martin Prings inflation Index.
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=!PRII&p=M&yr=20&mn=0&dy=0&id=p10606342747&a=369860779&r=1437298680267&cmd=print
Larry Edelson on Deflation.
http://www.moneyandmarkets.com/deflation-picking-even-momentum-71568#.VXg8r0YYnR8
MARTIN ARMSTRONG, once a US based trillion dollar financial adviser, used the number pi to predict economic turning points with precision. When some big New York bankers asked him to join the club to help them to take over Russia, he refused to join the manipulation. A few days later the FBI stormed his offices accusing him of a 3 billion dollar Ponzi Scheme - an attempt to stop him talking about the real Ponzi Scheme of debts that the US has built up over the years and which he thinks starts to collapse after October 1, 2015, a major pi turning point he is predicting.
http://www.zdf.de/ZDFmediathek/kanaluebersicht/500#/beitrag/video/2391132/M-Armstrong-%C3%BCber-die-%22g%C3%B6ttliche-Formel%22
http://forecaster-movie.com/en/the-forecaster/
http://theforecaster-interactive.com/
Economic Conference
http://armstrongeconomics.com/conferences-dvds/world-economic-conference-october-2015/
Herbert Hoover's memoir.
http://www.amazon.co.uk/Memoirs-Herbert-Hoover-Depression-1929-1941/dp/1447402472/ref=sr_1_1?ie=UTF8&qid=1430979560&sr=8-1&keywords=The+Memoirs+of+Herbert+Hoover
Have a nice summer.
Niels.
https://www.facebook.com/pages/Teknisk-Analyse-TA-Business-cycles/168152833231786
