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GENMAB - THE BLACK SWAN !


74824 ROI - David Mygind 9/6 2016 03:28
Oversigt

Dear Genmab investors

NOT ANOTHER WOLF SERIES PUBLICATION - BUT MIGHT STILL BE WORTH READING
This is NOT another publication in the "wolf series". It is instead a short intermediary update that there was an urgent need for publishing given that the market lacks understanding and appreciation for the events that has unfolded lately.

Genmab is slowly gaining increasing international recognition and it is therefore more relevant than ever to communicate in English. Our fellow American investors are in denial about the relentless pace with which value creation happens at Genmab currently. So, this publication is in English to target the broader scope of an international audience and increase awareness of the ugly duckling from Denmark that has turned into a beautiful swan. It is a swan that will soon enter the realms of such extreme territory that one can fairly start to speculate that it will turn black. Genmab is in other words starting to represent a "black swan event" in the corporate history of Denmark.

ASCO
I would like to mainly focus on the content of the webcast from the 37th annual Goldman Sachs healthcare conference held yesterday. However, let's not forget to first pay some attention to how Darzalex completely dominated ASCO and literally seemed to prevail as the hottest thing to have ever hit the multiple myeloma community.

ASCO offered a few glimpse of future prospects that are so bullish that they could surpass even the wildest blue-sky scenarios. I personally articulated one such outrageous prediction more than a year ago when stating that Daratumumab would reach 10-double blockbuster status meanwhile all others were dragging their feet considering top sales of no more than 5 billion USD at the most.

TIME FOR A BOLD PREDICTION
My dear fellow investors, tonight I'm making an even bolder prediction than I did one year ago. Tonight is the night that I will allow myself to publically make the most outrageous call that I will possibly ever have the chance of making. Sit down my friend and hold on to your hat and then please count to three as you take a deep breath before you start to read the next paragraphs which will send your pulse into overdrive if you are a devoted Genmab investor.

Darzalex is going to decimate all previous records and become the best selling drug ever in the entire medical history. I posit that we will see top sales going far beyond what anyone had imagined just a few months ago. So you might be thinking how high will we go? Well, that is hard to pinpoint exactly. But, I'm confident that we will break the record for the highest ever sales and I'm also sure that we will hang onto our record for at least for a couple of years before another innovative breakthrough will surpass our wonder drug.

Darzalex, my friends, is no longer Darzalex as we know it. Darzalex is quite simply going to be known as the universal wonder drug that will contribute to saving an unbelievable number of lives and ease so much human suffering. You may already now feel very proud about being a shareholder in the most ethical investment opportunity on the Danish stock exchange. But, I promise you that this feeling will only grow stronger later on. That is of course assuming that our black swan biotech adventure isn't stolen by an acquiring organization.

Most of you did not really believe me when I was calling for doubling the peak sales estimates more than a year ago. I realize that I'm now sticking my neck out even more with the current prediction about Darzalex becoming the world record holder for highest drug-sale in year. I further realize that the established community of the financial industry will have a hard time to fully fathom or quite simply acknowledge that I might be right. But, my dear friend and proud Genmab shareholder, I frankly don't care since history will eventually prove me right! Okay, this was a heavy stuff. So let me leave you hanging there for a moment to think about the prospects of these hefty claims before I will attempt to justify them after we had some "takeover talk".

TAKEOVER TALK
The talk about the impending takeover of Genmab has reached new highs. It seems that an ever increasing number of investors are now buying into the basic idea and it has thus become almost daily that the matter is being discussed either online on social media or via the more traditional media outlets.


It is not the aim to explain the lack of action in this article. Efforts of doing so will instead be presented in a future article under the title "The little red riding hood and the big bad wolf". The publication of "The Little red riding hood" of course requires that the acquisition doesn't actually materialize before the article has been finished.

I'm sorry if I disappoint some readers. But, we must await "The little red riding hood" to have the final closure in our trilogy about the takeover of Genmab. However, having said this we can still talk a little bit about the coming takeover now. Certain aspects of the present situation have recently evolved in such profound directions that they require our immediate attention if we want to stay up-to-date.

Let me first make clear that the most likely scenario still remains to have Genmab devoured this year. The new mega bullish and record-breaking peak-sales estimate that I issued as the jaw dropping opening statement of this article although changes things a bit as it of course plays a role by fuelling an even greater takeover determination among several large pharmaceutical companies.

However, let's leave the obvious argument of higher top-sales as motivation for a takeover behind us and discuss the validity later. Now, instead I ask you to take a few steep back and elevate your mind to reach an objective viewpoint that allows you to encompass the breadth of the entire pharmaceutical industry. Looking at things from this helicopter perspective enables you to marvel at a large and slightly clumsy pharmaceutical industry that is under increasing pressure.

The patent cliff continues to move dangerously close and threaten several big pharmaceutical giants. These giants are going to suffer from the stark consequences of poor innovation and lacking timely pipeline investments as they fall off the cliff. They will see their toplines start to erode as previous blockbusters suddenly face generic competition due to patent expirations that hasn't been followed up by investments in new key drugs. Previously great companies like Gilead or Pfizer are excellent examples for which the suffering has just begun.

It will get much worse! We are essentially approaching a ferocious double whammy and we have already witnessed the first effect so excellently illustrated by the impact of a few tweets from the first female presidential candidate. The tweets instigated a global pharma-meltdown when investors who fearing the impact of a legislative horror scenario started to unload shares. Yes, the effect was of course only temporary and Hillary Clinton will never fully succeed in a crusade against the mighty and powerful lobby organizations of the huge pharmaceutical industry. But, the effect of her presidency will still be enough to devalue pharmaceutical companies in the wake of her inauguration as the first female president. It might again be a temporary correction, but it is not going to be pretty and it will most certainly increase the stress level which is already very high in parts of an industry where many incumbents have their future prospects constrained due to the patent cliff and a lack of timely R&D investments.

Gilead, for instance, was propelled into the position as a powerhouse by the means of an ingenious and relentless M&A strategy wisely engineered by the former CEO. Everyone thought that the company had unlimited growth potential. But, the good times have ended and Gilead has lost approximately a third of its market capitalization seeing 60 billion vanishing into thin air. This immense destruction of shareholder value has happened meanwhile the CEO has been sleeping in the bed of "procrustes". The CEO of Gilead has failed to strike meaningful deals to fend of the inevitable decline from top-selling drugs that has saturated the hepatitis market. So why did Gilead's CEO sleep in a procrustean bed? He has clearly been biased by performance anxiety that stems from the legacy of the former CEO who was a true M&A wizard. The current CEO must have been stunned by the perception of an obligation to strike a golden acquisition. Inertia has circumvented his organization as the golden deal was seen as the only way he could possibly hope to fill the shoes of his predecessor.

We are now dealing with information that is absolutely essential for understanding why Genmab won't survive 2016 as an independent company. Gilead lost the 60 billions meanwhile the company spent a couple of years fooling around doing research sniffing in the role as the mysterious "secret partner" of Genmab. It simply isn't possible to sniff for that long without smelling something that seems to have the right odor. Gilead knew all along that Janssen immediately smelled the potential and they also witnessed Janssen as they rushed to ink a historically large commercial deal for 20 Duobody progams carrying unbelievably big milestone packages. Milestones that, by the way, will soon start to drop like torrential rainfall on our beloved Genmab and poor right down to our bottom line.

Gilead was surely already planning to sign a major commercial deal when the secret collaboration was officially revealed in the beginning of this year. Let's now quickly leave Gilead and return to them in a bit.

Gilead, Novartis and JnJ are in my humble (and speculative opinion) the three most likely acquires of Genmab. All three companies are (along with the rest of the industry) historically loaded with cash. The pharmaceutical industry is preparing to embark upon the biggest wave of acquisition that we have ever seen and we are now very close to the onset. There is simply no denying this as we have the patent cliff and generally favorably low biotech valuations to match with the insane amount of cash ammunition that is being pilled up in the war chest of the pharmaceutical giants.

We have almost seen a kind of strategic posturing with press coverage of both Gilead, Novartis and JnJ focusing on their M&A readiness. Each company has from the level of the CEO or CFO underlined how big their muscles are in the media lately. Gilead has announced that they are cancelling a share buyback program. Novartis has announced that they are executing a fire sale of their 6% stake in Roche due to imminent corporate action. JnJ has continuously been criticized for their huge overseas cash balance and the have despite of holding on to this only made a minor acquisition. It basically drags down the company's financial performance to an extend that would make any CEO unload the cash rapidly.

All of the three companies must have extremely good reasons to hoard cash like they have been doing. The behavior and the posturing is beyond the norm for the pharmaceutical industry and their actions are simply stunning. Why does Gilead cancel a share buyback program when it would create so much value for the shareholders to execute this program right now? Why does the CEO of Gilead, when being interviewed roughly a little month ago, frantically underline that a deal is imminent? He was under heavy attack for sleeping in his procrustean bed and yet another month has now passed without actions despite his promise? Why does Novartis first announce that they want to sell their stake in Roche only then to announce roughly a week later that they are willing to sell with very attractive conditions as long as the a deal can be swiftly reached?

Listen up, it isn't normal behavior and I would be outraged if I was a shareholder of Novartis that had to see my CEO wave goodbye to billions just to secure cash slightly faster than otherwise possible. I would be outraged by the share buyback cancellation if I was a Gilead shareholder and I would finally be raising stark criticism of Janssen for hoarding of cash if I were a shareholder.

Let's continue to focus on Gilead now. It is clear that Gilead was ready to sign a deal with Genmab a while ago. I personally have no doubt about this. Jan van der Winkel has previously taken good care to explain how prolonged research sniffing is positive as the price of commercial deal keeps rising proportionally with the amount of sniffing being done. The more you look at the goods, the more you have to pay. Now, the clever thing is that Genmab retains the intellectual property rights to any discoveries made during a research-collaboration.

Gilead needs a deal and they need it very badly right now! Jan van der Winkel holds the key to this deal and he sets the price for it. Genmab doesn't need the deal thanks to the immense success of Darzalex and the rapid progress of Duobody, the advance of Ofatumumab in RRMS and an industry leading pipeline. Gilead has been aware of the steep standard terms for a long while as Jan van der Winkel has publically stated this many times. Everyone knows the terms, it is 50% ownership or the possibility to opt-in taking 50% ownership along the way. The thing is that Genmab remains the winner no matter what happens and Jan van der Winkel is therefore stalling the negotiations and very deliberately putting forward completely unreasonable terms. I can almost guarantee you that it isn't just the dislike of an opt-in option that is keeping Gilead away from signing a deal. This requirement has been crystal clear almost since the beginning and it was most certainly known when the collaboration was publicly confirmed in January.

Jan van der Winkel knows that both Novartis and Janssen are potential buyers of Genmab and that both companies have hoarded cash with the intention of making their move. But, he is cleverly pushing Gilead into a corner by refusing to sign a deal. The CEO of Gilead is now under almost inhumane pressure as he has no deal, sits with his company that just lost 60 billion in market capitalization and now also faces the prospects of loosing two years of research. Even worse, this research will be lost to Janssen once they take ownership of Genmab. Gilead has thus been pushed into a corner that leaves the company with no other options than to make the first move. Jan van der Winkel personally prefers to be owned by his primary partner Janssen and he knows very well that if he pushes Gilead into firing first then there will be immediate counter actions by Janssen. One should really feel sorry for the CEO of Gillead who right now is in a very dark place and this is also his reason for cancelling the share buyback program in a last desperate attempt to fill his war chest sufficiently to be able to successfully outbid the other contenders.

Enough talk about the looming takeover for now. We are very close to an epic acquisition party and all Genmab shareholders are invited as VIP guests. Safely concluding that you have secured you VIP acquisition party invitation by simply being a shareholder, we now turn our attention to understanding why we are so damn close. You will understand why we are close ones you understand why it sure to bet on the Darzalex sales going through the stratosphere.


GOLDMAN SACHS HEALTHCARE CONFERENCE AND THE NEW TOP SALES ESTIMATE
Listen to the webcast from the GS conference and then listen to it again. Jan van der Winkel talks about the possibility of an early interim read-out for one or several of the three phase 3 trials in first line treatment. He very clearly states that he believes that the interim event will become pivotal for at least one of the trials during 2017. None of the analysts are sufficiently modeling the likelihood of interim readout in 2017 and subsequent first-line access by late 2017 or early 2018. We were in exactly the same situation for both Pollux and Castor which were also being modeled for much later completion thereby drastically lowering the anticipated uptake speed in the key scenario which prevailed as the consensus until the most recent adjustments and target upgrades from the analysts.

Remember how the primary investigator of the Castor study talked about conditional approval in the first line treatment regiment. This is unprecedented that someone, like him, decides to actually promote such an idea. It is a slippery slope for the FDA, but we all know that rules are there to be broken by exceptions. We thus have two routes that could take us into a first line treatment way faster than currently anticipated. Now, this does obviously not affect the peak sales very much as it "only" has an impact on the uptake speed. What although does impact the peak sales is how Jan van der Winkel sees amble opportunities for Darzalex across all lines of treatment even when considering that it will also be the backbone of all first line regiments. He sounds very confident that Darzalex won't exhaust its potential although the front line cocktail might wind up being used for a very long time before patients eventually progress to second line (if ever). This really confirms the true backbone therapy potential. Put let's use a direct quote from Jan van der Winkel to illustrate this in his own words:

"...It is inevitable to do MM trials without Darzalex in the future...".

Amazing my fellow investors, this statement alone warrants a rather aggressive upgrade of peak sales estimates. However, it is also even more important that Jan van der Winkel at one point mentions (on his own initiative) that there is hope for Darzalex in other types of blood cancer. The interviewer doesn't immediately recognize this and moves ahead with his scheduled questions. The interviewer then returns later and asks Jan van der Winkel where he is most excited about the prospects outside the scope of Multiple Myeloma. It is here that we get an absolutely mind blowing insight when Jan van der Winkel the replies:

"...we have stunning data in AML, ALL, NHL, CLL, VLL... .... ... so we have STUNNING pre-clinical data there (referring literally to all blood cancer indications).. ".

Doesn't people listen to what Jan van der Winkel is saying. He is literally confirming that we are close to being able to say with good certainty that Darzalex will be the best selling drug ever and will remain so for many years to come. Yes, I know, now some will say that there is a long way from pre-clinical settings and then to the market. But no, not in this case, the situation is different as we are dealing with a tried and tested compound as this implicitly lowers the chances of negative clinical surprises. Yes, okay then some will state that the blood cancer arena is awfully crowded with competitors. This is correct, but it is also a huge market and Darzalex will by then be heralded as one of the biggest cancer brands, so there is nearly certainty that a healthy market share can be obtained.

As if this wasn't enough, Jan van der Winkel advances and talks about CD 38 cells being highly expressed on the immune-suppressive cells in solid tumors. He says that the CD 38 mechanism might therefore hold promise in solid tumors by facilitation of the core mechanism itself and thus way beyond the hope of the market which is currently only pegged to the immuno-modulatory effect. This literally gives Darzalex a two-fronted way to attack solid solid tumors and that significantly increases the chances of the drug being effective (maybe even in mono-settings).

My dear fellow Genmab investors, please understand that we now have two avenues which can be used for leveraging our total probability of Darzalex becoming the most successful drug ever. We can either secure the most selling drug via "all-around blood cancer action" or otherwise via modest success in solid tumors (considering the two potential pathways that we now know exist).

Our chances in blood cancer are rather good due to the stunning pre-clinical data and the relevance of the inherent CD38 mechanism. We also have immensely good odds in solid tumors due to the two effects delivered via independent pathways. If you doubt about this then please listen once more to the webcast and hear specifically how bullish Jan van der Winkel is on this matter.

This is unprecedented territory for any biotech company. Nothing before has ever held the promise that Darzalex currently does. We thus have very good chances of experiencing a level of value creation that lies far, far beyond even the wildest blue-sky scenario that anyone could dream up only a few months ago.

Okay so you aren't convinced yet. Then consider this final statement from Jan van der Winkel. He makes the statement shortly after he confirms that the collaboration with Genentech in solid tumors will advance soon. He continues by underlining that the Genentech/Roche setup is non-exclusive and that we will very soon see other trials starting up. He freaking then says

"..We believe that Daratumumab holds promise to become backbone treatment across (all) cancer..".

What, what.... !!!!

Is the world not listening, is the world not understanding what he is saying. Of course, Jan van der Winkel has always been a notorious optimist and you should sometimes only listen to what he says with half an ear. But, Jan van der Winkel must have earned some credibility by now. So, why didn't the stock price explode after statements like this? We are either facing a scenario where the market simply doesn't understand what Jan van der Winkel is saying or we are facing a scenario where the market absolutely refuses to believe (even parts) of what he is saying.

Now, we shouldn't care about "the market". But, don't forget that Janssen sits in the driver seat when it comes to Darzalex and they are surely hearing and approving every word that Jan van der Winkel utters. They would therefore stop him if he becomes too disconnected from reality. However, more importantly, as you should also realize now, they have no other option than to acquire Genmab almost immediately.

Remember we have two shots and mega success as it looks now. That was one shot in blood cancer and one in solid tumors. Genmab only needs to hit one of the two shots (not even with a "bulls-eye" just within the frame) and we are then looking at 15-20 billion in peak sales and possibly even much more. I have trust in Jan van der Winkel and I most certainly believe that Janssen has trust in our CEO.

The acquisition price of Genmab will skyrocket over the next quarters and it is time to act now. Here was the best proof that I could offer in hurry. Yes forgive me as this was written in a bit of a hurry. However, listen to the webcast and you will hear the key points yourself as they are articulated word per word by Jan van der Winkel at nowhere less than in the devils own dent. Yet the market doesn't budge.

Having said the above. Nothing can surprise me about the movement of the market although. It is not and will never be rational. Be thankful for this and it is your ticket to riches!

And yes, I know that there will still be people who are doubting. They will come forward with their usual key arguments typically started with a reference to the lack of previous action. For that you must wait for the next article in the wolf series. However, I can say for now that the US based companies are truly having troubles accepting that a European biotech was the one to "make it big" and outcompete the whole range of bi-specific technologies even leaving the huge CART-T based investments in the dust with a superior drug that literally demolishes all competition. Give them a bit more time and they will accept this.

Disclaimer: The author owns Genmab shares and has significant interest in the company. The author doesn't seek to advise anyone about buying or selling shares and cannot be held reliable for any loss arising from decisions to do so. Arguments presented are based partly on facts but some conclusions are also very much relying on speculation.



9/6 2016 05:07 MUFC Oberanven 774825



Thanks for this excellent research David. I had exactly the same thoughts after the GS webcast. Not so much in the context of takeover. But very much more with regards to Darzalex, and its possibilities in all kind of cancers. You ain't seen nothing yet!



9/6 2016 07:15 transalp 274827



Agree, just Hope to stay clear of take over..



9/6 2016 08:09 Farfar1952 274828



Wise words. Ty



9/6 2016 18:01 Stroka 674831



Genmab - Google-oversættelse af Roi´s indlæg:

"Kære Genmab investorer

IKKE EN ANDEN WOLF SERIES OFFENTLIGGØRELSE - MEN KAN STADIG være værd at læse
Dette er ikke en anden publikation i "ulven serien". Det er i stedet en kort mellemmand opdatering, der var et presserende behov for at offentliggøre givet, at markedet mangler forståelse og værdsættelse for de begivenheder, der har udfoldet sig sidst.

Genmab langsomt vinder stigende international anerkendelse, og det er derfor mere relevant end nogensinde at kommunikere på engelsk. Vores kollega amerikanske investorer er i benægtelse om den ubarmhjertige tempo, som værdiskabelse sker på Genmab i øjeblikket. Så denne publikation er på engelsk for at målrette bredere anvendelsesområde for et internationalt publikum og øge bevidstheden om den grimme ælling fra Danmark, der har udviklet sig til en smuk svane. Det er en svane, der snart vil komme ind i en verden med en sådan ekstrem område, at man nogenlunde kan begynde at spekulere i, at det vil blive sort. Genmab er med andre ord begyndt at repræsentere en "sort svane begivenhed" i virksomhedernes historie Danmark.

ASCO
Jeg vil gerne først og fremmest fokusere på indholdet af webcast fra den 37. årlige Goldman Sachs healthcare konference afholdt i går. Men lad os ikke glemme at først betale nogle opmærksom på, hvordan Darzalex fuldstændig domineret ASCO og bogstaveligt talt syntes at sejre som den hotteste ting at have nogensinde ramt myelomatose samfund.

ASCO tilbudt et par glimt af fremtidsudsigter, der er så bullish, at de kunne overgå selv de vildeste blå-himmel scenarier. Jeg personligt formuleret en sådan uhyrlig forudsigelse mere end et år siden, da om, at Daratumumab ville nå 10-dobbelt blockbuster status i mellemtiden alle andre var at trække deres fødder overvejer top salg af ikke mere end 5 milliarder USD på det mest.

TID TIL BOLD FORUDSIGELSE
Mine kære kolleger investorer, i aften jeg gør en endnu modigere forudsigelse end jeg gjorde for et år siden. I aften er den nat, at jeg vil tillade mig at offentligt gøre mest uhyrlige opkald, jeg muligvis nogensinde vil have chance for at gøre. Sæt dig ned min ven og hold på din hat og derefter skal du tælle til tre, som du tager en dyb indånding, før du begynder at læse de næste afsnit, som vil sende din puls i overdrive, hvis du er en hengiven Genmab investor.

Darzalex kommer til at decimere alle tidligere rekorder og blive den bedst sælgende lægemiddel nogensinde på hele sygehistorie. Jeg postulere, at vi vil se top salg går langt ud over, hvad nogen havde forestillet sig blot et par måneder siden. Så du kan tænke, hvor højt vil vi gå? Tja, det er svært at udpege præcist. Men, jeg er sikker på, at vi vil slå rekorden for det højeste nogensinde salg, og jeg er også sikker på, at vi vil hænge på vores rekord i mindst et par år, før en anden innovativ gennembrud vil overgå vores vidundermiddel.

Darzalex, mine venner, er ikke længere Darzalex som vi kender det. Darzalex er ganske enkelt vil være kendt som den universelle vidundermiddel, der vil bidrage til at spare en utrolig antal menneskeliv og lethed så megen menneskelig lidelse. Du kan allerede nu føler meget stolt over at være aktionær i den mest etiske investeringsmulighed på den danske fondsbørs. Men jeg lover dig, at denne følelse kun vil vokse sig stærkere senere. Det er naturligvis under forudsætning af, at vores sorte svane biotek eventyr ikke er stjålet af en overtagende organisation.

De fleste af jer ikke rigtig tro mig, når jeg kaldte for fordobling peak salgsestimater mere end et år siden. Jeg er klar over, at jeg nu stikker min hals ud endnu mere med den aktuelle forudsigelse om Darzalex blive verdensrekord holder til højeste lægemiddel-salg i år. Jeg endvidere klar over, at det etablerede samfund af den finansielle sektor vil have en hård tid til fuldt ud at forstå eller simpelthen erkende, at jeg måske har ret. Men, min kære ven og stolt Genmab aktionær, jeg helt ærligt ligeglad da historien i sidste ende vil vise sig mig lige! Okay, det var en tunge ting. Så lad mig forlade dig hængende der for et øjeblik at tænke om udsigterne for disse velvoksen krav, før jeg vil forsøge at retfærdiggøre dem, efter vi havde nogle "overtagelse talk".

OVERTAGELSE TALK
Den snak om den forestående overtagelse af Genmab har nået nye højder. Det ser ud til, at et stadigt stigende antal investorer nu køber ind den grundlæggende idé, og det er således blevet næsten dagligt, at sagen drøftes enten online på sociale medier eller via de mere traditionelle medier.


Det er ikke formålet at forklare den manglende handling i denne artikel. vil i stedet blive præsenteret indsats for at gøre det i en kommende artikel under titlen "Den lille rødhætte og den store stygge ulv". Udgivelsen af ​​"Den lille rødhætte" selvfølgelig kræver, at overtagelsen ikke faktisk realiseres, før artiklen er afsluttet.

Jeg er ked af, hvis jeg skuffe nogle læsere. Men vi må afvente "Den lille rødhætte" for at få den endelige afslutning i vores trilogi om overtagelsen af ​​Genmab. Men efter at have sagt dette, kan vi stadig snakke lidt om den kommende overtagelse nu. Visse aspekter af den nuværende situation har for nylig udviklet sig i sådanne dybe retninger, de kræver vores umiddelbare opmærksomhed, hvis vi ønsker at holde up-to-date.

Lad mig først gøre det klart, at det mest sandsynlige scenario stadig at have Genmab åd i år. Den nye mega bullish og rekord peak-sales anslår, at jeg udsendt som kæben slippe åbne opgørelse af denne artikel, selv om ændringer tingene lidt, da det jo spiller en rolle ved brændstofpåfyldning en endnu større overtagelse beslutsomhed blandt flere store medicinalvirksomheder.

Men lad os lade den indlysende argument af højere Top-salg som motivation for en overtagelse bag os og diskutere validiteten senere. Nu, i stedet jeg bede dig om at tage et par stejle tilbage og ophøje dit sind til at nå frem til en objektiv synsvinkel, der gør det muligt at omfatte bredden af ​​hele den farmaceutiske industri. Ser man på tingene fra denne helikopter perspektiv gør det muligt at beundre en stor og lidt klodset farmaceutiske industri, der er under stigende pres.

Patentet klint fortsætter med at bevæge faretruende tæt og truer flere store farmaceutiske giganter. Disse giganter vil lide under de barske konsekvenser af dårlig innovation og mangler rettidige investeringer pipeline som de falder ud over klippen. De vil se deres overlinjer begynder at erodere som tidligere blockbustere pludselig står generisk konkurrence på grund af patentudløb, der ikke er fulgt op af investeringer i nye vigtige lægemidler. Tidligere store virksomheder som Gilead eller Pfizer er glimrende eksempler, for hvilke de lidelser netop har begyndt.

Det vil blive meget værre! Vi er i det væsentlige nærmer en glubsk dobbelt whammy og vi har allerede været vidne den første effekt, så glimrende illustreret ved virkningen af ​​et par tweets fra den første kvindelige præsidentkandidat. De tweets iværksat en global pharma-nedsmeltning, når investorer, der frygter konsekvenserne af en lovgivningsmæssig horror scenario begyndte at losse aktier. Ja, effekten var selvfølgelig kun midlertidig og Hillary Clinton vil aldrig helt lykkes i et korstog mod de mægtige og magtfulde lobbyorganisationer af den enorme medicinalindustri. Men, vil effekten af ​​hendes formandskab stadig være nok til at devaluere medicinalvirksomheder i kølvandet på hendes indsættelse som den første kvindelige præsident. Det kan igen være en midlertidig korrektion, men det kommer ikke til at være temmelig og det vil helt sikkert øge stressniveauet, som allerede er meget høj i dele af en branche, hvor mange etablerede har deres fremtidsudsigter begrænset på grund af patentet klippen og en manglende rettidige FoU-investeringer.

Gilead, for eksempel, blev drevet ind i position som et kraftcenter ved hjælp af en sindrig og ubarmhjertige M & A strategi klogt manipuleret af den tidligere administrerende direktør. Alle troede, at selskabet havde ubegrænset vækstpotentiale. Men har de gode tider sluttede og Gilead har mistet cirka en tredjedel af sin børsværdi se 60 mia forsvinder i den blå luft. Denne enorme ødelæggelse af shareholder value, der er sket i mellemtiden den administrerende direktør har sovet i sengen af ​​"Procrustes". Den administrerende direktør for Gilead har undladt at strejke meningsfulde tilbud at klare den uundgåelige fald fra top sælgende lægemidler, har mættet hepatitis markedet. Så hvorfor Gilead CEO sove i en Prokrustesseng? Han har klart været forudindtaget af præstationsangst, der stammer fra arven fra den tidligere administrerende direktør, der var en sand M & A guiden. Den nuværende administrerende direktør skal være bedøvet af opfattelsen af ​​en forpligtelse til at finde en gylden erhvervelse. Inerti har omgået sin organisation som den gyldne aftale blev set som den eneste måde, han eventuelt kunne håbe på at fylde skoene af hans forgænger.

Vi er nu beskæftiger sig med oplysninger, der er helt afgørende for at forstå, hvorfor Genmab ikke vil overleve 2016 som et selvstændigt selskab. Gilead mistede de 60 milliarder i mellemtiden virksomheden brugt et par år fjoller rundt gør forskning snuse i rollen som den mystiske "hemmelige partner" i Genmab. Det er simpelthen ikke muligt at sniffe at længe uden lugte noget, der synes at have den rigtige lugt. Gilead vidste hele tiden, at Janssen straks lugtede det potentiale og de også vidne Janssen, som de skyndte sig at blæk en historisk stor kommerciel aftale for 20 DuoBody progams bærer utroligt store milestone pakker. Milepæle, der, ved den måde, vil snart begynde at falde som voldsomme regnskyl på vores elskede Genmab og dårlig helt ned til vores bundlinje.

Gilead blev sikkert allerede planer om at underskrive en stor kommerciel aftale, når den hemmelige samarbejde blev officielt afsløret i begyndelsen af ​​dette år. Lad os nu hurtigt forlade Gilead og vende tilbage til dem i en smule.

Gilead, Novartis og JnJ er i min ydmyge (og spekulative mening) de tre mest sandsynlige erhverver i Genmab. Alle tre selskaber er (sammen med resten af ​​branchen) historisk fyldt med kontanter. Den farmaceutiske industri er klar til at gå i gang med den største bølge af erhvervelsen, som vi nogensinde har set, og vi er nu meget tæt på debut. Der er simpelthen ikke benægte dette, som vi har patentet klippen og generelt positivt lave bioteknologiske værdiansættelser til at matche med det vanvittige beløb af kontanter ammunition, der bliver pilled op i krigen brystet af de farmaceutiske giganter.

Vi har næsten set en form for strategisk poseren med pressedækning af både Gilead, Novartis og JnJ fokusere på deres M & A parathed. Hvert selskab har fra niveauet for den administrerende direktør eller CFO understreget, hvor stor deres muskler er i medierne sidst. Gilead har bebudet, at de er ved at annullere et aktietilbagekøbsprogram. Novartis har meddelt, at de er udførelse af en brand salg af deres aktiepost 6% i Roche grundet forestående corporate action. JnJ har løbende blevet kritiseret for deres enorme oversøiske kassebeholdning og har på trods af at holde fast i dette kun foretaget en mindre opkøb. Det dybest set trækker ned selskabets økonomiske resultater i et omfang, der ville gøre enhver CEO losse kontanter hurtigt.

Alle de tre selskaber skal have særdeles gode grunde til at hamstre kontanter som de har gjort. Den adfærd og poseren er ud over normen for den farmaceutiske industri og deres handlinger er simpelthen fantastisk. Hvorfor Gilead annullere et aktietilbagekøbsprogram, når det ville skabe så meget værdi for aktionærerne til at udføre dette program lige nu? Hvorfor administrerende direktør for Gilead, når bliver interviewet omkring en lille måned siden, febrilsk understrege, at en aftale er nært forestående? Han var under kraftig angreb til at sove i sin Prokrustesseng og endnu en måned er nu gået uden handlinger trods sit løfte? Hvorfor Novartis først meddele, at de ønsker at sælge deres aktiepost i Roche først derefter at annoncere omtrent en uge senere, at de er villige til at sælge med meget attraktive vilkår, så længe en aftale hurtigt kan nås?

Hør op, er det ikke normal adfærd, og jeg ville blive forargede, hvis jeg var aktionær i Novartis, der skulle se min CEO bølge farvel til milliarder bare for at sikre kontanter lidt hurtigere end ellers muligt. Jeg ville blive forargede ved aktietilbagekøbet aflysning, hvis jeg var en Gilead aktionær, og jeg ville endelig hæve skarp kritik af Janssen til hamstring af kontanter, hvis jeg var aktionær.

Lad os fortsætte med at fokusere på Gilead nu. Det er klart, Gilead var klar til at underskrive en aftale med Genmab et stykke tid siden. Personligt har jeg ikke i tvivl om dette. Jan van der Winkel har tidligere passet godt at forklare, hvordan langvarig forskning sniffing er positiv, da prisen på kommercielle aftale holder stiger proportionalt med mængden af ​​sniffing bliver gjort. Jo mere man ser på varerne, jo mere skal du betale. Nu, den kloge ting er, at Genmab fastholder de immaterielle rettigheder til eventuelle opdagelser gjort i løbet af en forskningsbaseret samarbejde.

Gilead har brug for en aftale, og de har brug for det meget dårligt lige nu! Jan van der Winkel er nøglen til denne aftale, og han sætter prisen for det. Genmab påtager brug for deal takket være den enorme succes Darzalex og den hurtige fremskridt DuoBody, at forud for Ofatumumab i RRMS og en brancheførende rørledning. Gilead har været opmærksom på de stejle standardvilkår for lang tid, da Jan van der Winkel har offentligt udtalt dette mange gange. Alle kender de vilkår, det er 50% ejerskab eller muligheden for at opt-in tage 50% ejerskab undervejs. Sagen er, at Genmab fortsat vinderen uanset hvad der sker, og Jan van der Winkel derfor gået i stå forhandlingerne og meget bevidst fremsætter helt urimelige vilkår. Jeg kan næsten garantere dig, at det ikke bare den modvilje af en opt-in mulighed, der holder Gilead væk fra at underskrive en aftale. Dette krav har været krystalklart næsten siden begyndelsen, og det var helt sikkert kendt, da samarbejdet blev offentligt bekræftet i januar.

Jan van der Winkel ved, at både Novartis og Janssen er potentielle købere af Genmab og at begge virksomheder har hamstret kontanter med den hensigt at gøre deres træk. Men, han behændigt at skubbe Gilead i et hjørne ved at nægte at underskrive en aftale. Den administrerende direktør for Gilead er nu under næsten umenneskelige pres, som han har ingen aftale, sidder med sin virksomhed, der lige mistet 60 mia i markedsværdi og nu står også over udsigten til at miste to års forskning. Endnu værre, vil denne forskning være tabt for Janssen, når de tager ejerskab af Genmab. Gilead er således blevet skubbet ind i et hjørne, der forlader virksomheden med ingen andre muligheder end at tage det første skridt. Jan van der Winkel personligt foretrækker at være ejet af hans primære partner Janssen og han ved godt, at hvis han skubber Gilead i affyringen først derefter vil der være umiddelbar counter handlinger Janssen. Man skal virkelig have ondt af den administrerende direktør for Gillead som lige nu er i en meget mørkt sted, og det er også hans grund til at annullere aktietilbagekøbsprogrammet i et sidste desperat forsøg på at fylde sin krig brystet tilstrækkeligt til at være i stand til at overbyde de andre kandidater.

Nok snak om den truende overtagelse for nu. Vi er meget tæt på en episk erhvervelse parti og alle Genmabs aktionærer inviteres som VIP-gæster. Sikker konkludere, at du har sikret dig VIP erhvervelse party invitation ved blot at være aktionær, vi nu vende vores opmærksomhed på at forstå, hvorfor vi er så pokkers tæt på. Du vil forstå, hvorfor vi er nære dem, du forstår, hvorfor det sikker på at satse på de Darzalex salget går gennem stratosfæren.


Goldman Sachs Healthcare konference OG DEN NYE TOP omsætningsestimat
Lyt til webcast fra GS konferencen og så lytte til det igen. Jan van der Winkel taler om muligheden for en tidlig foreløbig udlæsning for en eller flere af de tre fase 3 forsøg i første linie behandling. Han siger meget klart, at han mener, at den midlertidige begivenhed vil blive afgørende for mindst et af forsøgene i løbet af 2017. Ingen af ​​de analytikere er tilstrækkeligt at modellere sandsynligheden for midlertidige udlæsning i 2017 og efterfølgende adgang første linje i slutningen af ​​2017 eller begyndelsen af ​​2018 . Vi var i nøjagtig samme situation for både Pollux og Castor, som også blev modelleret til langt senere færdiggørelse derved drastisk sænke den forventede optagelse hastighed i nøglen scenario, der herskede, da konsensus indtil de seneste justeringer og mål opgraderinger fra analytikerne.

Husk, hvordan den primære investigator i Castor undersøgelsen talte om betinget godkendelse i første linje behandling regiment. Dette er uden fortilfælde, at nogen, som ham, beslutter at faktisk fremme en sådan idé. Det er en glidebane for FDA, men vi ved alle, at reglerne er til for at blive brudt af undtagelser. Vi har således to ruter, der kunne tage os ind i en første linje behandling måde hurtigere end forventet på nuværende tidspunkt. Nu, dette betyder naturligvis ikke påvirke peak sales meget som det "kun" har en indvirkning på optagelsen hastighed. Hvad selv gør påvirke peak sales er, hvordan Jan van der Winkel ser Amble muligheder for Darzalex tværs af alle linjer af behandling, selv når man overvejer, at det også vil være rygraden i alle første linje regimenter. Han lyder meget overbevist om, at Darzalex ikke vil udtømme sit potentiale, selv frontlinjen cocktail kan afvikle bliver brugt i meget lang tid, før patienterne i sidste ende udvikle sig til anden linje (hvis nogensinde). Dette er virkelig bekræfter den sande backbone terapi potentiale. Put lad os bruge et direkte citat fra Jan van der Winkel til at illustrere dette med hans egne ord:

"... Det er uundgåeligt at gøre MM forsøg uden Darzalex i fremtiden ...".

Amazing mine kolleger investorer, dette udsagn alene berettiger en temmelig aggressiv opgradering af peak estimater for omsætningen. Men det er også endnu vigtigere, at Jan van der Winkel på et tidspunkt nævner (på eget initiativ), at der er håb for Darzalex i andre typer af blodkræft. Intervieweren ikke umiddelbart genkende dette og flytter videre med sine planlagte spørgsmål. Intervieweren vender derefter senere og spørger Jan van der Winkel, hvor han er mest begejstret udsigterne ikke er omfattet af myelomatose. Det er her, vi får en absolut imod at blæse indsigt da Jan van der Winkel svarene:

"... Vi har en fantastisk data i AML, ALL, NHL, CLL, VLL ... .... ... så vi har en fantastisk prækliniske data der (henviser bogstaveligt til alle blod kræftindikationer) ..".

Er ikke folk lytter til, hvad Jan van der Winkel siger. Han er bogstaveligt bekræfter, at vi er tæt på at være i stand til at sige med god sikkerhed, at Darzalex vil være den bedst sælgende lægemiddel nogensinde og vil være det i mange år fremover. Ja, jeg ved, nu nogle vil sige, at der er en lang vej fra prækliniske indstillinger og derefter til markedet. Men nej, ikke i dette tilfælde, er situationen anderledes, da vi har at gøre med en afprøvet forbindelse som dette implicit sænker chancerne for negative kliniske overraskelser. Ja, okay så nogle vil fremgå, at det blodkræft arena er frygtelig overfyldt med konkurrenter. Dette er korrekt, men det er også et stort marked og Darzalex vil inden da blive udråbt som en af ​​de største kræft mærker, så der er næsten sikkerhed for, at der kan opnås et sundt markedsandel.

Som om dette ikke var nok, Jan van der Winkel forskud og taler om CD 38 celler bliver overudtrykt på immun-undertrykkende celler i solide tumorer. Han siger, at CD 38 mekanismen derfor kunne holde løfte i solide tumorer ved lettelse af kernen mekanismen selv og dermed langt ud over håbet om markedet, der er i øjeblikket kun knyttet til immuno-modulerende virkning. Dette bogstaveligt talt giver Darzalex en to-fronted måde at angribe solide solide tumorer og der markant øger chancerne for lægemidlet er effektivt (måske endda i mono-indstillinger).

Kære Genmab investorer, skal du forstå, at vi nu har to veje, som kan bruges til at udnytte vores samlede sandsynlighed for Darzalex blive den mest succesfulde stof nogensinde. Vi kan enten sikre mest sælgende lægemiddel via "all-around blodkræft handling" eller på anden måde via beskeden succes i solide tumorer (overvejer to potentielle veje, at vi nu ved eksisterer).

Vores situationer i blodkræft er temmelig god på grund af de fantastiske prækliniske data og relevansen af ​​den iboende CD38 mekanisme. Vi har også umådeligt gode odds i solide tumorer på grund af de to effekter leveret via uafhængige veje. Hvis du tvivler om dette, så skal du lytte en gang mere til webcast og høre specifikt, hvordan bullish Jan van der Winkel er på dette område.

Dette er uden fortilfælde territorium med ethvert biotekselskab. Intet før nogensinde har holdt det løfte, at Darzalex gør i dag. Vi har således meget gode chancer for at opleve en grad af værdiskabelse, der ligger langt, langt ud over selv de vildeste blå-sky scenario at nogen kunne drømme op kun et par måneder siden.

Okay så du er ikke overbevist endnu. Derefter overveje denne endelige opgørelse fra Jan van der Winkel. Han gør erklæringen kort efter, at han bekræfter, at samarbejdet med Genentech i solide tumorer vil forhånd snart. Han fortsætter med at understrege, at Genentech / Roche setup er ikke-eksklusiv, og at vi meget snart vil se andre forsøg starter op. Han freaking siger derefter

".Vi Mener, at Daratumumab lover at blive rygraden behandling på tværs af (alle) kræft ..".

Hvad hvad.... !!!!

Er verden ikke lytter, er at verden ikke forstå, hvad han siger. Selvfølgelig har Jan van der Winkel altid været en berygtet optimist, og du bør nogle gange kun lytte til, hvad han siger med en halv øre. Men, skal Jan van der Winkel har tjent nogle troværdighed ved nu. Så hvorfor ikke aktiekursen eksplodere efter udsagn som dette? Vi er enten over for en situation, hvor markedet simpelthen ikke forstår, hvad Jan van der Winkel siger eller vi står over for en situation, hvor markedet absolut nægter at tro (selv dele) af, hvad han siger.

Nu skal vi ikke bekymre sig om "markedet". Men glem ikke, at Janssen sidder i førersædet, når det kommer til Darzalex, og de er helt sikkert høre og godkendelse af hvert ord, Jan van der Winkel ytrer. De ville derfor stoppe ham, hvis han bliver for afbrudt fra virkeligheden. Men endnu vigtigere, som du også bør indse nu, har de ingen anden mulighed end at købe Genmab næsten øjeblikkeligt.

Husk vi har to skud og mega succes som det ser ud nu. Det var et skud i blodkræft og en i solide tumorer. Genmab behøver kun at ramme en af ​​de to skud (ikke engang med en "bulls-eye" lige inden for rammen) og vi derefter ser ved 15-20 milliarder i peak salg og måske endda meget mere. Jeg har tillid til Jan van der Winkel og jeg helt sikkert tror, ​​at Janssen har tillid til vores CEO.

Købesummen for Genmab vil eksplodere i de kommende kvartaler, og det er tid til at handle nu. Her var det bedste bevis på, at jeg kunne tilbyde i fart. Ja tilgiv mig, da dette blev skrevet i en lidt travlt. Men lyt til webcast og du vil høre de centrale punkter dig selv som de er formuleret ord per ord af Jan van der Winkel på ingen steder mindre end i djævlene egen dent. Men markedet ikke rokke.

Sagt ovenstående. Intet kan overraske mig om bevægelsen af ​​markedet selv. Det er ikke og vil aldrig være rationelle. Være taknemmelig for dette, og det er din billet til rigdom!

Og ja, jeg ved, at der stadig vil være folk, der er tvivlende. De vil komme frem med deres sædvanlige centrale argumenter typisk i gang med en henvisning til den manglende tidligere handling. For at du skal vente på den næste artikel i ulven serien. Dog kan jeg sige, for nu at USA baserede virksomheder er virkelig har problemer acceptere, at en europæisk biotek var den at "gøre det store" og udkonkurrere hele viften af ​​bi-specifikke teknologier selv forlader de enorme CART-T baserede investeringer i støvet med en overlegen stof, der bogstaveligt talt smadrer al konkurrence. Giv dem lidt mere tid, og de vil acceptere dette.

Disclaimer: Forfatteren ejer Genmab aktier og har betydelig interesse i selskabet. Forfatteren søger ikke at råde nogen om at købe eller sælge aktier, og kan ikke holdes pålideligt for tab som følge af beslutninger om at gøre det. Argumenter er baseret dels på fakta men nogle konklusioner også meget afhængige af spekulation".



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