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De brutale realiteter! Er vi på vej imod et 1987 krak?


76583 EliotSpitzer 22/12 2018 09:03
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Her er interessant syn på markedet

This brutal stock-market rout mirrors the 1987 crash in 1 important way

- By Mark DeCambre, MarketWatch, Friday‎, ‎December‎ ‎21‎, ‎2018

As the Dow Jones Industrial Average confronts its ugliest December loss since 1931, the time of the Great Depression, there is another notable way to put the severity of this persistent bout of losses into historical context.

If current conditions hold, it would mark the worst average daily moves for the Dow (DJIA) the S&P 500 index (SPX) and the Russell 2000 index (RUT) since October of 1987, according to Dow Jones Market Data.

In market lore, October of 1987 is a period that remains infamous. On Oct. 19, the Dow sank 22.6% in a single session, marking its steepest percentage drop ever, with trading during that period under pressure all month until the final crash.

There's a similar downtrend that is taking hold in December, despite the seasonal tendency for that month to enjoy a pre-Christmas updraft, typically known as a Santa rally, with institutional investors finding the month a good time to buy looking ahead to the new year.

Here's how the December moves have shaped up:
•The S&P 500 has had an average daily move of negative 0.80%
•The Dow has had average daily move of negative 0.78, as of 2:30 p.m. ET trade Friday
•The Russell 2000 index has had an average daily move of negative 1.05%

For those equity benchmarks, that is the worst performance since that dreaded month more than 30 years ago, based on market levels at 2:30 p.m. Eastern Time.

The Nasdaq Composite Index (COMP) which was set to close in a bear market, widely defined as a drop of at least 20% from a recent peak, has seen an average move of 0.8%, on track for its worst daily moves in a month since September of 2001.

On Friday, stocks extended withering losses that have been driven by a litany of investor concerns, cropping up after Wall Street enjoyed one of its best years in recent memory in 2017. Those fears include the Federal Reserve's pace of interest-rate increases, the health of the U.S. economy, a looming government shutdown, trade-war jitters and an international economic landscape that shows signs of stalling.

The U.S. economy does remain healthy, but optimism is in short supply. Some market strategists argue that a tradeable bottom could be at hand.

Bob Doll, senior portfolio manager and chief equity strategist at Nuveen Asset Management, in a research report dated Friday said "calling market bottoms is a fool's game," but noted that his investment shop sees "evidence that a tradeable bounce could be in the offing, which means stocks prices could be poised for a rally phase."

-Ken Jimenez contributed to this article









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