* Baghdad desperate for income after oil price fall
* Cash need may drive deal on oil exports with Kurdistan
* Deal could pave way for gas exports to Europe
By Ahmed Rasheed and Simon Webb
BAGHDAD/DUBAI, May 19 (Reuters) - Baghdad's desperation for more cash to rebuild after years of sanctions and war could provide a long-awaited catalyst for a deal with minority Kurds on oil and gas exports.
Iraq's Oil Ministry on Monday rejected an $8 billion Kurdish plan to fill the Nabucco pipeline with gas for Europe, the latest spat in a long feud with the largely autonomous Kurdistan region over control of massive oil and gas reserves.
But it has made a concession on oil exports from the region, after two years of deadlock.
"Iraq is desperate for oil export money and hard currency, a potential driver for a deal with the Kurdish region that is much stronger than anything we've seen previously," said Samuel Ciszuk, analyst at IHS Global Insight in London.
Facing domestic pressure to boost income hit by the oil price slump and to increase sluggish output, Oil Minister Hussain al-Shahristani gave permission earlier this month for the Kurdish north to start modest oil exports of 60,000 barrels per day from June 1. The Kurdish region said the flow could quickly reach 100,000 bpd.
But the two sides have yet to agree the key issue of how revenues would be shared. How that is resolved has implications for the Kurdish region's plan to export gas to Europe, as well as for future oil and gas contracts throughout the country.
WHO GETS WHAT?
The exports stem from production sharing contracts the Kurdistan Regional Government (KRG) has signed with foreign firms, which Baghdad maintains are illegal. The oil ministry says only it has authority to validate contracts; the KRG says its deals are constitutional.
If Baghdad agreed to pay the companies from oil and gas revenues according to the contract terms, it would effectively validate the deals and concede ground to Kurdish and other regional claims to control over resources.
The oil ministry says income should go to a central pot and then be distributed as for the budget, of which the KRG gets 17 percent. The KRG, if it could, might use that to pay the firms.
"That would be the death of all other exploration agreements in the Kurdish region," Ciszuk said.
KRG contracts with oil firms call for them to be paid 18-20 percent of total revenues. It would be short if forced to pay with its share after the pot is divided.
"It's unfair to even suggest that Kurdistan repay the oil firms using its 17 percent share," Ali Hussain Balou, a Kurd who heads the Iraqi parliamentary oil and gas committee, told Reuters. "Any (Iraqi government) support for that idea would only complicate the problem and push things into a deadlock."
The committee's Arab deputy, Abdul-Hadi al-Hasani, said the firms involved, Norway's DNO International (DNO) and Toronto-listed Addax Petroleum (AXC), should be paid their drilling costs rather than their contract entitlement. That would be a compromise until an oil law was passed, he added.
Iraq's cabinet approved an oil and gas law in 2007 that would help resolve deep disputes casting a shadow on the future of a country struggling to emerge from six years of violence.
But disagreement between Baghdad and the KRG has delayed the legislation's passage to parliament.
Once exports flow, the two sides were likely to come to some pragmatic agreement on revenues, analysts said.
Both sides need to see more income as Baghdad has been forced to cut the federal budget for this year three times due to oil's slump to around $60 a barrel from a peak over $147 last year. Iraq relies on oil for about 95 percent of income.
SLUGGISH PRODUCTION
Shahristani is under pressure to compensate for a decline of around 250,000 bpd in output from a post-war peak hit last May. Kurdish output could plug the gap more quickly than any other source available to the minister.
Iraq has the world's third-largest oil and tenth-largest gas reserves, but needs billions to overhaul energy infrastructure.
Even a deal on revenues from these exports may be insufficient to point the way for future deals and for any gas supplies to Nabucco, analysts said.
The deals with DNO and Addax were signed before the draft oil legislation was agreed, so Baghdad may be more inclined to allow them to go ahead than those signed later, analysts said.
"I think that the oil ministry is quite careful not to set a precedent that will encourage firms to continue signing deals with the KRG," said Valerie Marcel, associate fellow at international affairs institute Chatham House.
Baghdad has its own plans to supply gas to Europe from other fields, another reason it would resist the Kurdistan plan.
The firms hoping to export gas to Europe may go ahead with plans to build a pipeline to Turkey under KRG auspices and with no federal approval. But buyers and especially transit country Turkey, itself combating Kurdish separatist aspirations, would be reluctant to purchase without Baghdad's nod.
"That would be encouraging Kurdish separatism," said Al Troner, Managing Director of Asia Pacific Energy Consulting. "That would be a very hard sell in Turkey." (Additional reporting by Shamal Aqrawi in Arbil and Missy Ryan in Baghdad; Editing by Anthony Barker)
((simon.webb@reuters.com; +971 43918301; Reuters Messaging: simon.webb.reuters.com@reuters.net))
* Cash need may drive deal on oil exports with Kurdistan
* Deal could pave way for gas exports to Europe
By Ahmed Rasheed and Simon Webb
BAGHDAD/DUBAI, May 19 (Reuters) - Baghdad's desperation for more cash to rebuild after years of sanctions and war could provide a long-awaited catalyst for a deal with minority Kurds on oil and gas exports.
Iraq's Oil Ministry on Monday rejected an $8 billion Kurdish plan to fill the Nabucco pipeline with gas for Europe, the latest spat in a long feud with the largely autonomous Kurdistan region over control of massive oil and gas reserves.
But it has made a concession on oil exports from the region, after two years of deadlock.
"Iraq is desperate for oil export money and hard currency, a potential driver for a deal with the Kurdish region that is much stronger than anything we've seen previously," said Samuel Ciszuk, analyst at IHS Global Insight in London.
Facing domestic pressure to boost income hit by the oil price slump and to increase sluggish output, Oil Minister Hussain al-Shahristani gave permission earlier this month for the Kurdish north to start modest oil exports of 60,000 barrels per day from June 1. The Kurdish region said the flow could quickly reach 100,000 bpd.
But the two sides have yet to agree the key issue of how revenues would be shared. How that is resolved has implications for the Kurdish region's plan to export gas to Europe, as well as for future oil and gas contracts throughout the country.
WHO GETS WHAT?
The exports stem from production sharing contracts the Kurdistan Regional Government (KRG) has signed with foreign firms, which Baghdad maintains are illegal. The oil ministry says only it has authority to validate contracts; the KRG says its deals are constitutional.
If Baghdad agreed to pay the companies from oil and gas revenues according to the contract terms, it would effectively validate the deals and concede ground to Kurdish and other regional claims to control over resources.
The oil ministry says income should go to a central pot and then be distributed as for the budget, of which the KRG gets 17 percent. The KRG, if it could, might use that to pay the firms.
"That would be the death of all other exploration agreements in the Kurdish region," Ciszuk said.
KRG contracts with oil firms call for them to be paid 18-20 percent of total revenues. It would be short if forced to pay with its share after the pot is divided.
"It's unfair to even suggest that Kurdistan repay the oil firms using its 17 percent share," Ali Hussain Balou, a Kurd who heads the Iraqi parliamentary oil and gas committee, told Reuters. "Any (Iraqi government) support for that idea would only complicate the problem and push things into a deadlock."
The committee's Arab deputy, Abdul-Hadi al-Hasani, said the firms involved, Norway's DNO International (DNO) and Toronto-listed Addax Petroleum (AXC), should be paid their drilling costs rather than their contract entitlement. That would be a compromise until an oil law was passed, he added.
Iraq's cabinet approved an oil and gas law in 2007 that would help resolve deep disputes casting a shadow on the future of a country struggling to emerge from six years of violence.
But disagreement between Baghdad and the KRG has delayed the legislation's passage to parliament.
Once exports flow, the two sides were likely to come to some pragmatic agreement on revenues, analysts said.
Both sides need to see more income as Baghdad has been forced to cut the federal budget for this year three times due to oil's slump to around $60 a barrel from a peak over $147 last year. Iraq relies on oil for about 95 percent of income.
SLUGGISH PRODUCTION
Shahristani is under pressure to compensate for a decline of around 250,000 bpd in output from a post-war peak hit last May. Kurdish output could plug the gap more quickly than any other source available to the minister.
Iraq has the world's third-largest oil and tenth-largest gas reserves, but needs billions to overhaul energy infrastructure.
Even a deal on revenues from these exports may be insufficient to point the way for future deals and for any gas supplies to Nabucco, analysts said.
The deals with DNO and Addax were signed before the draft oil legislation was agreed, so Baghdad may be more inclined to allow them to go ahead than those signed later, analysts said.
"I think that the oil ministry is quite careful not to set a precedent that will encourage firms to continue signing deals with the KRG," said Valerie Marcel, associate fellow at international affairs institute Chatham House.
Baghdad has its own plans to supply gas to Europe from other fields, another reason it would resist the Kurdistan plan.
The firms hoping to export gas to Europe may go ahead with plans to build a pipeline to Turkey under KRG auspices and with no federal approval. But buyers and especially transit country Turkey, itself combating Kurdish separatist aspirations, would be reluctant to purchase without Baghdad's nod.
"That would be encouraging Kurdish separatism," said Al Troner, Managing Director of Asia Pacific Energy Consulting. "That would be a very hard sell in Turkey." (Additional reporting by Shamal Aqrawi in Arbil and Missy Ryan in Baghdad; Editing by Anthony Barker)
((simon.webb@reuters.com; +971 43918301; Reuters Messaging: simon.webb.reuters.com@reuters.net))
20/5 2009 12:40 cyber 0
11644 Månedlig opdatering...
Oljeselskapet DNO International ASA har onsdag kommet med sin månedlige oppdatering på oljeproduksjonen i Nord-Irak og Jemen. Samtidig informerer selskapet om at de nå jobber med de siste forberedelsen for å være klare til å la oljen strømme til den nordirakiske eksportrørledningen når kranene åpnes 1. juni.
Det var i forrige uke at selskapet endelig fikk beskjeden om at de får starte eksport av de store oljemengdene selskapet har klare fra Tawke-feltet i den kurdiske delen av Nord-Irak.
Inntektene fra oljeproduksjonen på Tawke i april endte på 9,8 millioner kroner, mot 33,1 millioner kroner totalt i første kvartal.
Når det gjelder DNOs andel av oljeproduksjonene fra lisensene i Jemen så endte den på 6.026 fat per dag i april, mot 5.936 fat per dag i første kvartal. Oppnådd oljepris i april endte på 50 dollar per fat i Jemen.
http://www.na24.no/imarkedet/article2629535.ece
Oljeselskapet DNO International ASA har onsdag kommet med sin månedlige oppdatering på oljeproduksjonen i Nord-Irak og Jemen. Samtidig informerer selskapet om at de nå jobber med de siste forberedelsen for å være klare til å la oljen strømme til den nordirakiske eksportrørledningen når kranene åpnes 1. juni.
Det var i forrige uke at selskapet endelig fikk beskjeden om at de får starte eksport av de store oljemengdene selskapet har klare fra Tawke-feltet i den kurdiske delen av Nord-Irak.
Inntektene fra oljeproduksjonen på Tawke i april endte på 9,8 millioner kroner, mot 33,1 millioner kroner totalt i første kvartal.
Når det gjelder DNOs andel av oljeproduksjonene fra lisensene i Jemen så endte den på 6.026 fat per dag i april, mot 5.936 fat per dag i første kvartal. Oppnådd oljepris i april endte på 50 dollar per fat i Jemen.
http://www.na24.no/imarkedet/article2629535.ece
20/5 2009 13:11 fcras 011649 :
Shahristani in Parliament
Submitted by Iraq Oil Report on Tuesday, 19 May 2009
By SAMUEL CISZUK
IHS Global Insight
Iraq’s oil minister, Hussein al-Shahristani, has been summoned by parliament to answer criticisms of his perceived failure to launch development and arrest the decline in export levels in Iraq, while he continues to brand all Iraqi Kurdistan oil and gas deals “illegal”.
Shahristani has been summoned to the Iraqi parliament through a petition signed by 140 parliamentarians—when 25 would have sufficed—levying criticism against him for his failure to unlock Iraqi development so far, although it is yet unclear what measures parliament will take.
The summons comes at a time when the Kurdish factions have been raising the stakes in their fight to be allowed to export their oil and gas and gain recognition of their autonomy over their own oil and gas resources. The first licensing round is also about to be awarded, potentially unsettling what has been achieved unless the minister and his government acquiesce.
- more here:
http://www.iraqoilreport.com/politics/shahristani-in-parliament/1481/
Shahristani in Parliament
Submitted by Iraq Oil Report on Tuesday, 19 May 2009
By SAMUEL CISZUK
IHS Global Insight
Iraq’s oil minister, Hussein al-Shahristani, has been summoned by parliament to answer criticisms of his perceived failure to launch development and arrest the decline in export levels in Iraq, while he continues to brand all Iraqi Kurdistan oil and gas deals “illegal”.
Shahristani has been summoned to the Iraqi parliament through a petition signed by 140 parliamentarians—when 25 would have sufficed—levying criticism against him for his failure to unlock Iraqi development so far, although it is yet unclear what measures parliament will take.
The summons comes at a time when the Kurdish factions have been raising the stakes in their fight to be allowed to export their oil and gas and gain recognition of their autonomy over their own oil and gas resources. The first licensing round is also about to be awarded, potentially unsettling what has been achieved unless the minister and his government acquiesce.
- more here:
http://www.iraqoilreport.com/politics/shahristani-in-parliament/1481/
Kan salget Det Norske også være en trigger. Der spekuleres i at DNO´s stake på 25% snart skal sælges.
Måske kan kursen gå op...
Måske kan kursen gå op...
20/5 2009 16:51 collersteen 011690 Apropos AKA.... 1mio solgt idag. Godt spottet 
DNO International ASA
DNO International ASA (`DNO`) has today sold 1,000,000 shares in Det
norske oljeselskap ASA (`DETNOR`) constituting 1.54% at an average
price of NOK 53.50 per share.
Following this sale, DNO owns 15,231,255 shares constituting 23,46%
of the share capital in DETNOR.
The share capital has been calculated on the basis of 64,925,020
outstanding and issued shares in DETNOR.
DNO International ASA
20 May, 2009
http://www.newsweb.no/newsweb/search.do?messageId=238282
DNO International ASA
DNO International ASA (`DNO`) has today sold 1,000,000 shares in Det
norske oljeselskap ASA (`DETNOR`) constituting 1.54% at an average
price of NOK 53.50 per share.
Following this sale, DNO owns 15,231,255 shares constituting 23,46%
of the share capital in DETNOR.
The share capital has been calculated on the basis of 64,925,020
outstanding and issued shares in DETNOR.
DNO International ASA
20 May, 2009
http://www.newsweb.no/newsweb/search.do?messageId=238282
20/5 2009 21:06 TGSC 011721 Det er interessant at sammenligne med Addax :
http://investing.businessweek.com/businessweek/research/stocks/charts/charts.asp?ric=AXC.TO
Kursen toppede og faldt en måned før olieprisen, og har været støt stigende siden 17nov08 hvor olieprisen og DNO-kursen stadig sloges med bunden indtil Feb09.
http://www.cx-portal.com/wti/oil_en.html
Alle tre er dog cirka fordoblet siden bunden.
http://investing.businessweek.com/businessweek/research/stocks/charts/charts.asp?ric=AXC.TO
Kursen toppede og faldt en måned før olieprisen, og har været støt stigende siden 17nov08 hvor olieprisen og DNO-kursen stadig sloges med bunden indtil Feb09.
http://www.cx-portal.com/wti/oil_en.html
Alle tre er dog cirka fordoblet siden bunden.
21/5 2009 12:51 Hegu 011766 Behøver de at skære vor lidelseshistorie så meget ud i pap:
http://www.hegnar.no/bors/energi/article374814.ece
Med venlig hilsen
:)Hegu
http://www.hegnar.no/bors/energi/article374814.ece
Med venlig hilsen
:)Hegu
skal vi have lidt flere dno?? Jeg kunne godt tro det.....Nu har de solgt en million aktier til ca.50 millioner nok i Det Norske. Det må være det de snakkede om i kvartalsregnskabet.
Så skal vi så igang med triggeren med den forbandede eksport. Den kommer 1. Juni.
Jeg har følgende beregning.
50.000 tønder olie om dagen x 35% skat x 55% andel x 365 dage x 60 dollar pr. tønde x 6,4 nok/dollar. Det giver 1,35 mia NOK i omsætning efter skat. og ca 1.2 mia hvis vi siger løfteomkostninger 6 dollar pr. tønder.
den kan øges til 100K tønder om dagen, hvilket giver 2,4 mia i indtjening om året alene på Tawke.....
Market cap 7 mia....
Så skal vi så igang med triggeren med den forbandede eksport. Den kommer 1. Juni.
Jeg har følgende beregning.
50.000 tønder olie om dagen x 35% skat x 55% andel x 365 dage x 60 dollar pr. tønde x 6,4 nok/dollar. Det giver 1,35 mia NOK i omsætning efter skat. og ca 1.2 mia hvis vi siger løfteomkostninger 6 dollar pr. tønder.
den kan øges til 100K tønder om dagen, hvilket giver 2,4 mia i indtjening om året alene på Tawke.....
Market cap 7 mia....
23/5 2009 13:26 Mixd 011903 Jeg får et lidt andet regnestykke end dig akademiker. Følgende:
50.000 t i 360 dage = 18 mill. t. Heraf får DNO 55%
18 mill x 55% = 9,9 mill t. Heraf skal DNO betale 35% i skat. Der er så 65% tilbage til dem selv
9,9 mill t x 65% = 6,435 mill t. Hvis hver tønde koster 60 $
6,435 x 60 = 386,1 mill $. Omregnet til NOK
386,1 x 6,4 = 2,471 mia NOK. Minus lyfteomkostninger som sættes til 20 NOK pr. tønde. 18 mill x 20 = 360 mill NOK
2,471 mia - 360 = 2,111 mia NOK
For 100.000 t pr. dag fås
2,471 x 2 = 4,942 mia minus 720 mill. = 4,222 mia NOK
DNO bør prises til 20 mia efter 1.06.09 og 40 mia fra efteråret
v.h.
50.000 t i 360 dage = 18 mill. t. Heraf får DNO 55%
18 mill x 55% = 9,9 mill t. Heraf skal DNO betale 35% i skat. Der er så 65% tilbage til dem selv
9,9 mill t x 65% = 6,435 mill t. Hvis hver tønde koster 60 $
6,435 x 60 = 386,1 mill $. Omregnet til NOK
386,1 x 6,4 = 2,471 mia NOK. Minus lyfteomkostninger som sættes til 20 NOK pr. tønde. 18 mill x 20 = 360 mill NOK
2,471 mia - 360 = 2,111 mia NOK
For 100.000 t pr. dag fås
2,471 x 2 = 4,942 mia minus 720 mill. = 4,222 mia NOK
DNO bør prises til 20 mia efter 1.06.09 og 40 mia fra efteråret
v.h.
23/5 2009 13:39 Mixd 011904 Må vel lige modificere sidste udtalelse til at være således at Tawke - ikke DNO totalt - med nuværende brønde bør prisfastsættes til 20 mia henholdsvis 40 mia NOK.
Men hertil skal jo tillægges yderligere boringer i Tawke som kommer til plus Jemen og Det norske
Men hertil skal jo tillægges yderligere boringer i Tawke som kommer til plus Jemen og Det norske
nu står jeg lige midt i en gulvvask, men vil da hellere have at du har ret end jeg har 
smed ellers mine tal ind i et regneark. Dollaren er dog lidt lavere end jeg havde i mit regnestykke.
Det bliver meget meget spændende efter d.1. juni...
smed ellers mine tal ind i et regneark. Dollaren er dog lidt lavere end jeg havde i mit regnestykke. Det bliver meget meget spændende efter d.1. juni...
23/5 2009 15:27 Mixd 011915 Jeg tror heller ikke, at man skal være blind overfor at DNO spiller med noget fordækte kort forstået på den måde, at de har boret flere brønde i Tawke, hvor de har stoppet boringerne (måske inden de vidste, de ville støde på olien). Dvs at de nu - når de er kommet igang med eksporten - kan viderebore disse tidligere brønde og derved let opnå meget større reserver end nu angivet.
Hvis tingene glider glat fra nu af angående eksport uden "flimmer på linien" , tror mange, at der vil komme et bud på DNO.
v.h.
Hvis tingene glider glat fra nu af angående eksport uden "flimmer på linien" , tror mange, at der vil komme et bud på DNO.
v.h.
har vi egentligt set noget insiderkøb eller salg i aktien. Hvis vi indenfor så kort tid skal se så meget værdi komme frem, så burde vi vel se insiderne køber op?
