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BDI mandag 08.06.09 -163 pkt

13150 fcras 8/6 2009 16:37

Baltic Exchange Dry Index 3646 DOWN 163

BCI Baltic Exchange Capesize Index 6523 DOWN 289
BPI Baltic Exchange Panamax Index 3027 DOWN 225
BSI Baltic Exchange Supramax Index 1804 DOWN 28
BHSI Baltic Exchange Handysize Index 873 DOWN 7

Panamax ”Dione” 2001 - 75.172 dwt (Diana Shipping)
10.03.09 - Gibraltar - Photo: © Daniel Ferro, Gibraltar

8/6 2009 16:39 fcras 013151

Søndag 7. juni 2009 kl: 08:00

Kinesiske rederier er i gang med at opkøbe brugte tørlastskibe i stor stil. 28 procent af de brugte tørlastskibe der indtil nu er solgt i år, er havnet på kinesiske hænder. Dermed er Kina det land der har opkøbt flest skibe i år.

"Det ser ud til at Kina er besluttet på at opbygge så stor en tørlastflåde, at de kan fragte en stor del af det kul, jernmalm og andre råvarer de har brug, på egne skibe", vurderer det græske mæglerfirma N Cotzias Shipping Group i en ny rapport .

Traditionelt har græske redere opkøbt mellem 26 og 40 procent af de brugte tørlastskibe der udbydes til salg, mens Kina har opkøbt mellem 10 og 15 procent. Men det forhold har nu ændret sig.

Ved at holde transporten på egne hænder, vil kineserne kunne holde omkostningerne nede - og dermed væksten oppe, skriver Cotzias.

Samtidig vil en stor kinesisk tørlastflåde gøre det vanskeligt for de udenlandske rederier at presse priserne i top igen.

Kilde: Tradewinds

8/6 2009 17:29 fcras 013154

Monday, 08 June 2009

The Atlantic Index rose for the fifth consecutive week to 17,155 points, the highest level since mid-September. Transatlantic round voyage time charter earnings for 172k dwt vessels increased by $17,000/day (+23%) from ..................... LINK

9/6 2009 09:06 fcras 013203

Tuesday, 09 June 2009

A dramatic week for the iron ore market in which BHP Billiton and Rio Tinto declared a ground-breaking US$115bn merger of their main iron ore activities. The surprise strategy replaces Rio’s previous...... link

9/6 2009 10:55 fcras 013210

Tuesday, 09 June 2009

THE current rally in commodity shipping rates reflected in the Baltic Dry Index (BDI) may not indicate any real sustainable revival in the shipping industry as the rise in iron ore shipments and other cargoes to China, a major destination for commodity shipments, is probably due more to current cheaper spot prices than a turnaround in real demand.

The BDI had moved up by 547.2% to 4,291 points on June 3 since its lowest level last year at 663 points on Dec 5.

Iron ore and coal account for about half of commodities shipped on dry-bulk vessels.

Although the current BDI level is somewhat close to industry’s five-year average of 4,921 points, its sustainability for the second half of this year remains uncertain.

An Australian newspaper quoted experts saying that much of the surge in Chinese iron ore imports was driven by traders, rather than steel mills, during an uncertain period over new contract prices for iron ore while domestic demand for steel in China remained weak.

An analyst from a local brokerage told StarBiz that the current iron ore spot price was 63.9% lower year-on-year at US$67.5 per tonne.

“The current spot iron ore price has been moving the BDI and the movement has little to do with the current iron ore price negotiation.

“This is because the spot iron ore price has already reflected the expected outcome of the annual iron ore price negotiations that are still going on due to China seeking a lower price,” he said, adding that Rio Tinto, one of the world’s biggest mining companies, had reached an agreement with Japan as well the rest of Asian steel manufacturers except China.

China was reportedly calling for a fall in iron ore contractual prices to the level seen in 2007 or a drop of at least 40%. It has influential bargaining power because it is the largest customer of Rio Tinto.

According to Reuters fact box on iron ore price negotitions, the world’s top three iron ore suppliers and their major customers gather at the end of each calendar year to determine free-on-board contract prices for deliveries made in the following fiscal year (April 1- March 31), instead of relying on commodity exchanges.

Australia’s BHP Billiton and Rio Tinto together with Brazil’s Vale control around three quarters of the global iron ore export market.

But on a more positive note, AmResearch in its latest sector report said the new dry bulk vessel orders that had almost entirely dried up since the onslaught of the financial crisis would set the right foundation for a strong cyclical upswing.

“Most important, the dry bulk sector is positioned as a proxy to a rebound in commodity prices – which we believe is headed for a recovery.

“Commodities are early cycle plays to a recovery in global economy and the dry bulk sector is a major beneficiary of any pick-up in commodity transportation demand,” it said.

The report also indicated that real demand had been improving as reflected in China’s Manufacturing Purchasing Manager’s Index (PMI) that saw two consecutive months of rebound.

“The PMI rebounded to 52.4% in March, the first time it was back in expansionary zone (i.e. a reading above 50%), since October 2008. The month of April saw further expansion with the PMI registering at 53.5% .

“We think this provides an early indication that downstream steel inventories are being worked down – bearing in mind that steel production has barely recovered in the past couple of months,” AmResearch said.

China’s 4 trillion renminbi stimulus package was also expected to take effect from the second half of this year, it noted.

“The bulk of stimulus plan flows towards construction and transport sectors – big consumers of steel.

“China’s steel demand is driven mainly by the construction sector (51%). This is followed by machinery (14%), auto (5%) and highways (4%).

“We would expect a meaningful recovery in steel demand as a consequence, which in turn, is expected to increase demand for iron ore,” AmResearch said.

Source: The Star

9/6 2009 11:00 fcras 013211

Monday, 08 June 2009

Thailand-based handy operator Precious Shipping says that the current rise in the Baltic Dry Index is unsustainable in the long run and will lead to a consequent crash in rates as new tonnage enters the market.

"China binge buying iron ore against all expectations with imports rising at 27+ pct higher in 2009 than for 2008, based on the annualized results of the first 4 months of this year, shows you where the big move from the demand side has come from," the company said. "This rise in iron ire imports is despite the fact that steel production in China in the first four months of 2009 has been roughly at the same levels as we had seen in 2008. An explanation for these increased iron ore imports could be the fact that domestically produced iron ore in China is of a rather poor quality and quite expensive when compared to spot imported prices. Another explanation could be that of speculators getting into the import market to try and get hold of 'cheap' iron ire that would possibly be required under the Chinese government's US$586bn stimulus plan. And a third could be the impending conclusion of the iron ore contract price negotiations."

"Obviously, when you binge buy and compress imports of a single commodity, carried mainly by capesize ships, into a very short space in time, you tend to create two issues at the same time. Firstly, you tend to push up freight rates due to the time-compressed/explosive demand growth for that ship-sector. And more significantly, you create queues at loading and discharging ports which tend to reduce availability of spot ships driving prices even higher. Combine this with delayed delivery schedules of dry bulk ships during Q4 08 and Q1 09 and you have the ingredients of a perfect storm especially when you take the number of capesize ships that have been sent to the scrap-yard during the last 6/9 months."

"The BDI hit its recent peak on the 3rd June 2009 closing at 4,291 points with the average t/c rate per day per ship for the Capes at USD 93,197, Panamaxes at 28,110, Supramaxes at 19,470, and Handies at 12,668. Compare these numbers with what was prevailing on the 5th December 2008 when the BDI hit a two and half decade low of 663 points, then Capes were earning a paltry t/c rate of USD 2,763 per day per ship, the Panamaxes were at 4,058, Supramaxes at 5,726, and the Handies at 4,352. Clearly the BDI is more reflective of the Capes and the Panamaxes, as the Panamaxes are a shadow of the Capes, than of the market as a whole."

This, Precious says, will lead to problems. "Besides this sudden, sharp and unexpected rise in the market will have two very bad consequences. Firstly, scrapping will come to a grinding halt. This will stop the squeeze on the supply side which was originating from the permanent removal of ships via the scrap-yards. Secondly, with the new 'confidence' in the market, all the delayed deliveries of new ships from the builders might make a startling reversal and lots of new ships could suddenly start appearing on the market. Both these consequences will result in long term damage to our market and eventual balance between demand and supply will be pushed further away on the time horizon."

"In our opinion, based on the congestion at Chinese discharge ports and the present increased level of iron ore imports the index could actually cross 5,000 points. We think that congestion should clear up once this binge buying of iron ore abates or more new Capes are delivered from the ship-yards than the demand can absorb. Once one or both of these events take place, congestion will vanish very quickly with the BDI crashing down as quickly as it has advanced. The fundamentals still overwhelmingly point to a world economic recession with tremendous job losses and we suspect that will put a real dampener on the current burning hot BDI."

Handysize “Bussara Naree” 1997 - 18.573 dwt (Precius Shipping PLC)
12.07.07 - Port of Rio Grande, Brazil - Photo: © Marcelo Vieira, Rio Grande, Brazil