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NEC-Super info omkring shalegas fra Fluefisker


18163 Hegu 4/9 2009 21:02
Oversigt

Nedenstående indlæg fra Hegnar har jeg fået lov til at bringe af vor gode norske ven "Fluefisker", da han selv ikke er istand til det af tekniske årsager:

NEC-Mye spesifikk gasinfo for NEC
Har knabbet dette fra et forum for landeiere i NY og legger det inn i sin helhet. Her er det veldig informative presentasjoner hvis man går inn på linkene som er angitt.

Selv lærte jeg at gasen i Herkimer antakelig stammer fra lekkasjer i det underliggede Uticaformasjon. Det kan også se ut til at de aller nordligste av NEC sine områder kan være litt tvilsomme mhp Marcellusproduksjon da de vel ligger litt for grunt til å ha tilstrekkelig trykk.

Anbefales da dette direkte gjelder NEC-land:

The Oxford well was mentioned by one of the other people at the meeting; I do not have any first-hand knowledge of that well. Here are the notes from my presentation, and a links to the information:

Professor Selleck’s presentation:
Professor Selleck discussed the potential for natural gas production from the various geological formations in Chenango County. The power point presentation given by Professor Selleck, “Natural Gas Development in Central New York”, is available at: http://offices.colgate.edu/bselleck/Nat ... natgas.pdf

Information sites: http://offices.colgate.edu/bselleck/NatGas.htm
Professor Selleck’s comments and response to questions:
It is important to be aware of potential environmental concerns however he feels some of the information maybe exaggerated. Brine produced from wells must be disposed of properly. Water use during hydrofracturing is a major concern, and drilling companies will hopefully find techniques to reduce water use and minimize flowback water that needs disposal.

· Natural gas is primarily made up of petroleum gas (methane) which has the lowest carbon impact of any fossil fuel. The methane evolves from organic matter deposited millions of years ago. The process involves: decomposition of the organic matter to produce kerogen (insoluble organic matter). Heating during burial may produce petroleum liquids. Natural gas is produced throughout the burial process. In central New York, the gas-bearing formations reached temperatures of 140C during burial, resulting in dry gas (methane with very little liquid hydrocarbon).

· Natural gas exploration requires several data sets prior to drilling: Seismic testing determines the fault structure which is an important aspect of data collection. The seismic tests were beneficial in the successful Black River Trenton exploration, where the tests found the formation cracking had created storage reservoirs deep in the earth containing large quantities of natural gas; Well logs are the primary data source, these are confidential for 6 months after the drilling completion date but an extension may be requested from NYSDEC; Lithologic logs are prepared from the rock cuttings from each layer during the drill which indicate thickness and potential for natural gas. All companies must submit the cuttings to NYS which are stored by the New York State Museum. Well data is available online from the New York State Museum oil and gas database system (ESOGIS).

· In Central New York, the various rock formation layers dip into the subsurface toward the south. The Marcellus shale is at the surface in Marcellus, NY (thus the name) and extends deeper into the subsurface of Southern Chenango Co., into the Appalachian region. Marcellus shale <1500 ft. in depth does not have adequate pressure to push the gas.

· The Utica Shale has considerable organic material, hydrocarbons and natural fractures which are beneficial to release gas. This formation is an extensive sub-surface deposit under Chenango, Otsego, Delaware and Broome Counties. It may be 10 + years before this formation is a significant producer but some vertical well permits have been issued in Otsego County.

· The Oneida formation is brine prone. Some wells drilled into the Oneida formation in Chenango County have been sealed back to the Herkimer formation for production.

· The Herkimer Sandstone formation, which has been producing in Madison and Chenango Counties, is actually an ancient shoreline deposit. Recently-developed horizontal wells do not require “fracing” fluids and some of these have relatively high yields.. The use horizontal development brings into question the current Herkimer spacing units. The opinion is there should be a greater distance to ensure the uncased horizontal traverse does not intake gas from other formations as well as neighboring properties outside the designated NYSDEC approved spacing unit. Question was asked as to how far the gas could travel toward the uncased line? It would be nearly impossible to determine; it would require extensive testing of the gas and knowledge of the different formation “fingerprints” in the area. Mr. Vickers compared this to sub-surface trespassing and virtually impossible to determine.
. The various shale formations have a stable isotope for identification or gas “fingerprinting”. This is helpful for differentiating the sources of gas. However there is limited public data for formations in central New York.


Innlegg av: Fluefiskeren (04.09.09 18:24 ), lest 76 ganger
Ticker: NEC
RE^1: NEC-Mye spesifikk gasinfo for NEC
Fortsetter.

· New drilling technology such as compressed gas drilling reduces the need for subsequent well treatment.

· There maybe some potential in the Black River/Trenton formation in this area. The Potsdam formation is the deepest and exploration of this depth could be beneficial for injection disposal. The brine concentrate and worst components in the drilling waste water may be safer to store back into these very deep wells. At this time a closed-loop system would be beneficial for treating the drilling waste water at the site. The waste water generally consists of brine (10x concentration of seawater), calcium, potassium, and various dissolved metals. Professor Selleck expressed concern about depositing this waste water on roads for ice control. If each load was adequately analyzed for all components, maybe, but this would not be cost-effective.

· Water management is the major issue confronting the gas companies and they are aware of public concerns. The companies are working on increasing technology to address this issue. Professor Selleck stated the NYS regulations appear to be adequate for aquifer protection but cementing of the casing must be properly done, sufficient depth. Supervisor Bays asked about the procedure for safely closing wells. Professor Selleck stated the well sealed with cement, and if properly done should not pose an environmental risk.
The typical residence in NYS uses ~73mcf (mcf=1000cu.ft=1million BTU when burning) for heating. Approximately 4% of NYS consumption is produced in the state. Majority of natural gas is from western NYS, Southern states and Canada.
In summary Professor Selleck recommended individuals seeking a better understanding of natural gas exploration review the “Modern Shale Gas Primer” http://www.netl.doe.gov/technologies/oi ... r_2009.pdf , which basically gives a neutral overview in layman language. In addition, Professor Selleck commended Chenango County for establishing the Natural Gas Advisory Committee as this is an essential tool for educating the residents. It is equally essential for government at the town level to be informed and prepared. Keep the line of communication open with the gas companies in the area. Corporate gas company philosophy varies and too often communication becomes a problem. Utilize all and any contacts that have a good working relationship with the gas companies as the NYSDEC staffing is inadequate.[/quote]
this was e-mailed to me today... very good info... chasgas



7/9 2009 13:35 JensHorka 018228



Nu vi er igang med at gengive solid info fra de enkelte troværdige norske skribenter vil jeg da lige poste et regnestykke fra marcellus på HO. han lagde det op sent igår aftes
-------------------------------------------------
Innlegg av: marcellus (06.09.09 22:41 ), lest 669 ganger
Ticker: NEC
Endret: 06.09.09 23:19
NEC - Inside the Marcellus Play
http://www.champlainresources.com/pdf/tudor%20pickering%20marcellus%20presentation.pdf

Se spesielt s. 45-46, Chesapeake/StatoilHydro


s.17
Gas in place in the 75-150 Bcf/section and
20-30% recovery anticipated when fully
developed

For Nec:
- 1 section = 640 acres
- 130.000 acres = 203 sections
- 203 sections * 110 Bcf = 22.330 Bcf = 2,23 Tcf

800 Marcellus brønner:
- 4 brønner / section
- 27,5 Bcf / brønn

(til sammenlikning brukes 1,2 Bcf pr Herkimer brønn)
(tallene fra rapporten er sikkert ikke endelige og ikke et fasitsvar men det gir en pekepinn om proporsjonene i Marcellus Shale
PS: Korriger meg gjerne om det er noe feil her!

27,5 Bcf pr. brønn virker veldig mye, noe usikker på 20-30% recovery er ekslusive på dette tallet (mest sannsynlig) og da i tilfelle
ligger det et poteniale pr. Marcellus brønn på: 25% av 27,5 Bcf = 6,875 Bcf.
--------------------------------
Mht NEC's licenser i Marcellus-formationen, påpeges det af fluefiskeren at det kun er den del af formationen der ligger dybere end 1500 fod (500 meter) hvor trykket er højt nok til at presse gassen ud... Men mon ikke dette rent faktisk er tilfældet? HO-marcellus' regnestykke på ialt 2,23 tcf passer nemlig med at en udvindingsgrad på 30% giver 0,7 tcf for NECs marcelluslicenser - hvilket netop er det tal NEC selv opgiver i den sidste præsentation (Q2 side 22) som det uafhængigt afgivne skøn fra Schlumberger.

God dag herfra i alle fald :)



8/9 2009 18:44 Jøss! 018295






12/10 2009 11:51 Kenddinvare 020480



NY Times bragte i lørdags et spændende indlæg om shalegas
http://www.nytimes.com/2009/10/10/business/energy-environment/10gas.html?_r=1&scp=1&sq=shale&st=cse

Det spændende er ikke at der er norske og italienske teknikere i USA for at lære om udviklingen af disse felter eller at der på dette felt er foregået en stille revolution, men at der omtales noget om mulighederne andre steder i verden.

Centralt for mig er 2 passager.
Den første om det samlede potentiale :
"Because so little drilling has been done in shale fields outside of the United States and Canada, gas analysts have made a wide array of estimates for how much shale gas could be tapped globally. Even the most conservative estimates are enormous, projecting at least a 20 percent increase in the world?s known reserves of natural gas.
One recent study by IHS Cambridge Energy Research Associates, a consulting group, calculated that the recoverable shale gas outside of North America could turn out to be equivalent to 211 years? worth of natural gas consumption in the United States at the present level of demand, and maybe as much as 690 years. The low figure would represent a 50 percent increase in the world?s known gas reserves, and the high figure, a 160 percent increase."

Og den anden om at næste mål er Europa:
"Now American companies are looking abroad for lucrative shale fields in countries hungry for more energy. They are focusing particularly on Europe, where gas prices are sometimes twice what they are in the United States, and large shale beds are located close to some cities.

Exxon Mobil has drilled a few exploratory wells in Germany in recent months. Devon Energy is teaming up with Total, the French oil company, seeking approval to drill in France. ConocoPhillips announced recently that it had signed an agreement with a subsidiary of a small British firm to explore a million acres in the Baltic Basin of Poland.

Early estimates of recoverable European shale gas resources range up to 400 trillion cubic feet, less than half the industry?s estimates of what is recoverable in the United States. But European energy executives say they are excited about the prospects because the Continent?s conventional gas reserves are too small to meet demand. "

Umiddelbart kunne det derfor være spændende om et JV omkring dele af NECs NY-acres indbefatter et samarbejde om nye acres (undskyld ordspillet) andre steder i verden.
Således at NEC får akkumuleret væsentligt større resourcer/reserver ved hjælp af partnerens penge mod at bidrage med deres ekspertise og sikre steder.
Det vil ligge godt i tråd med NECs traditionelle satsninger (og hvad der er ved at ske i Brasilien) med omdannelse af for alle synlige kommende indtægter til stærke potentialer.
Der vil på den måde være ganske god chance for at NEC om 10 år har selskabstal, der er 20-50 gange større end det nuværende, men det vil også betyde at der kan være endnu 2-5 år, hvor værdierne er så skjult at aktiekursen vil være meget ustabil og fortsat lav. Derfor kan NEC-J være usikker.

I det større perspektiv er der så spørgsmålene omkring hvad nye store reserver i Europa mm. kan betyde for gaspriserne og for selskabernes indbyrdes konkurrence. Sektoren kan blive spekulativt trykket fra kræfter, der ikke "ved" at nye ting tager tid.

De afgørende konkurrenceparametre for selskaberne vil være timing (billige leasingaftaler, likviditetsstyring, produktionsstarter ved stigende/høje gaspriser) gode hedgingkontrakter og prioritering af de mest produktive plays i forhold til leasingomkostninger. På sidstnævnte står NEC godt med Herkimer og muligt valg af rækkefølge mellem Marcellus og/eller Utica.

Hvis der er noget at komme efter andre steder end Nordamerika har NEC utvivlsomt geologisk set gode forudsætninger for at vælge rigtigt, spørgsmålet er bare om de er i gang inden områderne som i Appalacherne stiger meget i pris og om de har de selskabsmæssige forudsætninger for at springe uden for USA (og Brasilien).






13/10 2009 16:15 collersteen 020533



Lidt fra Cramer inspireret af NY Times artiklen... Det er om Chesapeake.
http://www.cnbc.com/id/33278938



7/9 2009 14:21 CaptainB 018234



Side 12: selv om total Marcellus-tykkelse er større andre steder, har Nec på sine acres trolig høy drivverdig tykkelse (undersøkelsen strekker seg kun til grensen mot NY, men Nec har acers rett nord for grensen).

Vi ser også at områdene nordøst i Pennsylvania (og nærmest Necs lisenser) gir best leasingavtaler.

På side 32 går det klart fram av kartet at Marcellus finnes under (nesten) alle Necs acres i CNY. På side 6 bekreftes at Necs acres ligger dypere enn 2000 ft. Grensen for produksjon går som vi vet rundt 1500 ft.

Ellers er det spennende at Nec er nevnt på side 44. Det betyr jo at noen i USA følger med Nec.



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