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Efterspørgsel overhaler planlagt kapacitetsudvidelse i 2011


36692 Kristensen 30/11 2010 21:23
Oversigt

Trina Solar (NYSE:TSL) har i dag aflagt regnskab for Q3.

Omsætningen steg 104% til $508,3 mio. fra $249,7 mio sidste år i samme kvartal. Nettoindtægterne i kvartalet steg 108% til $82,87 mio., i forhold til $39.76 mio. sidste år. Indtjening pr. ADS(EPS) steg til $1,08 fra $0,64 i det forudgående år.

Den estimeret omsætning i Q3 lød på $403 mio. og estimeret EPS lød på $0,89. Så de realiserede tal må anses som meget bedre! EPS på $1,08 indeholder endda et valutatab på 0,11$ pr. aktie.

Dermed er det også første gang TSL opnår en omsætning på over $500 mio. Jifan Gao, bestyrelsesformand og administrerende direktør for Trina Solar, mener at udsigterne for 2011 bliver mere og mere positive, idet efterspørgslen forventes at overhale Trine's planlagte kapacitetsudvidelser i 2011. De forventer dermed også fortsat at vinde markedsandele.

Dermed er i samlet ÅTD oppe på en omsætning på $1.215,9 mio. samt et EPS på $2,26. Med en Q4 resultat der er på niceau, med de gennemsnitlige 3 forrige kvartaler, ender EPS samlet set på ca. $3. Dette svarer ud fra den nuværende kurs (22,20) til en P/E på 7,4 - hvilket skal sammenlignes med marked der forventes at vokse 100% i 2011.

I 2011 forventes EPS at vokse yderligere til $3,31.

Jeg ejer pt. ikke TSL, men finder aktien yderst attraktivt prissat pt., og det er nok kun et spørgsmål om tid før jeg køber til den lange!

FA, fundamentalanalyse, solar, solcellebranchen, solceller, TSL

FA, fundamentalanalyse, solar, solcellebranchen, solceller, TSL




30/11 2010 21:32 akademikeren 036693



Godt indlæg, jeg har den også på min watchlist og P/E 7 på en aktie der vokser 100% er tæt på at være en nobrainer.



30/11 2010 22:18 kallifs 036697



Jeg må lige stemme i og sige godt indlæg - du har i hvertfald vækket min appetit.. :)



30/11 2010 22:23 akademikeren 036699



Vi tager lige hele regnskabet her så:

Exceeds Gross Margin and Shipment Guidance; Raises Annual Shipment Target
CHANGZHOU, China, Nov. 30, 2010 /PRNewswire via COMTEX/ --

Trina Solar Limited (NYSE: TSL) ("Trina Solar" or the "Company"), a leading integrated manufacturer of solar photovoltaic products from the production of ingots, wafers and cells to the assembly of PV modules, announced today its financial results for the third quarter ended September 30, 2010.

Third Quarter 2010 Financial and Operating Highlights

Solar module shipments were approximately 291 MW, exceeding the Company's previous guidance of 250 MW to 260 MW, representing an increase of 30.4% sequentially and 137.0% year-over-year
Net revenues were $508.3 million, an increase of 37.1% sequentially and 103.5% year-over-year
Overall gross margin was 31.4%, above the Company's previous guidance of approximately 30%, compared to 32.1% in the second quarter of 2010 and 28.5% in the third quarter of 2009
Gross margin was 37.6%, above the Company's previous guidance of mid 30s in percentage terms, relating to its in-house wafer production to module production
Operating income and operating margin were $113.0 million and 22.2%, respectively, compared to $83.3 million and 22.5%, respectively, in the second quarter of 2010
Net income was $82.9 million, which included a net foreign currency exchange loss of $8.3 million, compared to net income of $38.7 million in the second quarter of 2010
Earnings per fully diluted ADS were $1.08, which included the impact of a net foreign currency exchange loss of $0.11 per fully diluted ADS, compared to $0.52 in the second quarter of 2010
"We are very pleased to deliver another strong quarter which saw a record 30% jump in shipment volume and a sequential ASP increase, resulting in revenues surpassing a milestone of $500 million," said Mr. Jifan Gao, Chairman and CEO of Trina Solar. "We exceeded our previous shipment guidance and margin guidance due to ongoing strong demand and continued efficient execution."

"We have furthered our goal to build a globally recognized and trusted brand through raising the performance and reliability of our products to an expanding client base. As a result, we are increasingly becoming the supplier of choice in both established and emerging PV markets worldwide."

"We continue to see strong demand momentum into the fourth quarter and the outlook for 2011 is increasingly positive; we expect that demand for our products will outpace our planned capacity expansion in 2011. Our expansion will allow us to increase sales in high growth PV markets such as the United States and Japan, while expand our presence and sales in Australia and other emerging solar markets. In parallel, our continued investments in localizing customer service and increasing service levels allow us to target higher value end-segments and high profile projects and to further differentiate our product offerings from other brands. We expect continuous gain in market share linked to our sales strategy and our emphasis on quality in our existing and new PV products and solutions."

Recent Business Highlights

During the third quarter of 2010, the Company

Announced an agreement to supply solar modules to SunEdison, a subsidiary of MEMC Electronic Materials, Inc. ("MEMC"). Under the terms of the agreement signed with MEMC, the Company is expected to supply SunEdison with approximately 35 MW of PV modules over the remainder of 2010

Announced the signing of a Letter of Agreement with the Massachusetts Institute of Technology ("MIT") to become a member of its Industrial Liaison Program, a program devoted to promoting university-industry collaboration, innovation and technology sharing

Announced that Mr. Gary Yu, who served as Trina Solar's Vice President of Manufacturing since May of 2007 has been promoted to the position of Senior Vice President, Operations effective July 2010. Mr. Yu's role will remain focused on key internal operations areas such as manufacturing and operations management and cost reduction, and will now include capacity expansion and supply chain management

Announced that Ms. Stephanie Yang Shao has joined as Trina Solar's Chief Human Resources Officer in September 2010. Ms. Shao will oversee Trina Solar's HR management system and compensation and benefits for its employees globally

Subsequent Events

Subsequent to the third quarter of 2010, the Company

Announced it has accepted the resignation of Mr. Sean Tzou as its Chief Strategy Officer and from the Company's board effective October 2010. Mr. Tzou resigned in order to pursue his personal interests

Announced that its American Depositary Receipts ("ADRs") have started trading on the Singapore Exchange ("SGX") GlobalQuote Board under the symbol "K3KD". GlobalQuote is SGX's quotation board for international securities such as ADRs, depository receipts and depository shares of companies already listed on other exchanges

Third Quarter 2010 Results

Net Revenues

Trina Solar's net revenues in the third quarter of 2010 were $508.3 million, an increase of 37.1% sequentially and an increase of 103.5% year-over-year. Total shipments were 290.5 MW in the third quarter of 2010, compared to the Company's previous guidance of 250 MW to 260 MW, versus 222.8 MW in the second quarter of 2010 and 122.6 MW in the third quarter of 2009. The sequential increase in total shipments was primarily due to increased brand recognition of the Company's products in established and new PV markets, including the United States and Australia.

Gross Profit and Margin

Gross profit in the third quarter of 2010 was $159.4 million, compared to $118.9 million in the second quarter of 2010 and $71.1 million in the third quarter of 2009. Overall gross margin was 31.4% in the third quarter of 2010, compared to the Company's previous guidance of approximately 30%. Gross margin was 32.1% in the second quarter of 2010 and 28.5% in the third quarter of 2009. The year-over-year increase in gross margin was primarily due to favorable reductions of its silicon purchase price and non-silicon manufacturing costs relative to module ASP decline. The Company continued to focus its efforts on reducing its manufacturing cost per watt through ongoing efficiency gains linked to its lean manufacturing initiatives and improved supply chain management.

Gross margin relating to the Company's in-house wafer production to module production was 37.6% in the third quarter of 2010, compared to its previous guidance of mid 30s in percentage terms.

Operating Expense, Income and Margin

Operating expenses in the third quarter of 2010 were $46.4 million, an increase of 30.1% sequentially and 81.3% year-over-year. The sequential and yearly increases were primarily due to increased shipments, the hiring of professional personnel for the Company's European and North American regional headquarters, and the expansion in the Company's global sales and marketing efforts. The Company's operating expenses represented 9.1% of its third quarter net revenues, a decrease from 9.6% in the second quarter of 2010 and a decrease from 10.3% in the third quarter of 2009. Operating expenses in the third quarter of 2010 also included $1.4 million in share-based compensation expenses, compared to $1.7 million of share-based compensation expenses in the second quarter of 2010 and $1.2 million in the third quarter of 2009.

As a result of the foregoing, operating income in the third quarter of 2010 was $113.0 million, compared to $83.3 million in the second quarter of 2010 and $45.5 million in the third quarter of 2009. Operating margin was 22.2% in the third quarter of 2010, compared to 22.5% in the second quarter of 2010 and 18.2% in the third quarter of 2009.

Net Interest Expense

Net interest expense in the third quarter of 2010 was $7.5 million, compared to $8.2 million in the second quarter of 2010 and $6.3 million in the third quarter of 2009. The sequential decrease was primarily due to the increase in the Company's interest income combined with a reduction in average short-term borrowings, while the year-over-year increase was due to additional bank borrowings to support the Company's announced capacity expansion.

Foreign Currency Exchange

The Company had a net loss in foreign currency exchange of $8.3 million in the third quarter of 2010. This compared to a net loss of $29.2 million in the second quarter of 2010 and a net gain of $7.9 million in the third quarter of 2009. This net loss was primarily due to the loss from foreign currency forward contracts used by the Company to hedge its foreign currency risk exposure, which was substantially offset by the gain as a result of the appreciation of the Euro against U.S. dollar.

The Company continued foreign currency hedging during the third quarter of 2010 using foreign currency forward contracts between Euro and U.S. dollar, with the goal of mitigating some of the effects of exchange rate volatility.

Net Income, Margin and EPS

Net income was $82.9 million in the third quarter of 2010, compared to net income of $38.7 million in the second quarter of 2010 and $39.8 million in the third quarter of 2009. The net foreign currency exchange loss included in net income was $8.3 million, compared to a net foreign currency exchange loss of $29.2 million and a net foreign currency exchange gain of $7.9 million in the second quarter of 2010 and the third quarter of 2009, respectively.

Net margin was 16.3% in the third quarter of 2010, compared to 10.4% in the second quarter of 2010 and 15.9% in the third quarter of 2009.

Earnings per fully diluted ADS were $1.08. The negative impact of net foreign currency exchange loss was approximately $0.11 per fully diluted ADS.

Financial Condition

As of September 30, 2010, the Company had $828.3 million in cash and cash equivalents and restricted cash. The Company's working capital balance was $869.6 million. Total bank borrowings stood at $534.1 million, of which $340.9 million were long-term borrowings.

Shareholders' equity was $1.03 billion, an increase from $938.1 million at the end of the second quarter of 2010.

Fourth Quarter and Full Year 2010 Guidance

For the fourth quarter of 2010, the Company expects to ship approximately 300 MW of PV modules.

The Company expects its gross margin relating to its in-house wafer production to module production to be in the mid 30s in percentage terms during the fourth quarter of 2010. The Company believes its overall gross margin, taking into account wafer and cell requirements outsourced to third party suppliers to meet demand in excess of its internal capacity, for the fourth quarter will be approximately 30%. Such guidance is based on the average exchange rate between the Euro and U.S. dollar from October 1, 2010 to November 30, 2010.

For the full year of 2010, the Company raises its guidance for total PV module shipments to be approximately 1 GW, compared to its earlier guidance of between 900 MW to 930 MW, representing an increase of approximately 151% from the annual PV module shipments in 2009.

Operations and Business Outlook

Non-Silicon Cost Reduction

In the third quarter of 2010, the Company's non-silicon manufacturing cost applicable to its in-house wafer production to module production was approximately $0.73 per watt, compared to $0.74 per watt in the previous quarter. The Company expects to further reduce its costs in 2011 through the continuation of technology and manufacturing process improvements, including supply chain and logistics management initiatives currently under testing and development.

Silicon Procurement

Through the Company's diversified range of short, medium and long-term supply contracts, which include contracts entered into in the first quarter of 2007, the Company will continue to maintain competitive silicon costs relative to the current market price.

Sales Outlook

As a result of strong demand for its module products in both European and non-European markets, including the United States, the Company expects to increase its shipment volume in the fourth quarter of 2010 compared to the third quarter of 2010.

The Company expects its Euro denominated average selling price ("ASP") during the fourth quarter of 2010 to increase from that in the third quarter of 2010.

2010 and 2011 Capacity Expansion

As of August 31, 2010, the Company reached its targeted 2010 annualized in-house production capacities of approximately 950MW of PV cell and module capacity.

Through yield increases achieved from improved cell conversion efficiency rates, improved production efficiencies and manufacturing line enhancements, the Company expects that the actual manufacturing yield of its PV cell and module production may reach up to 1.1 GW of annualized capacity during the fourth quarter of 2010.

In the second half of 2011, the Company expects to raise its annualized in-house production capacity of ingot and wafer as well as PV cell and module production capacity to reach approximately 1.2 GW and 1.7 GW, respectively, based on actual manufacturing yield.



30/11 2010 22:27 TeamGarlic 036700



Havde ikke set dit fine indlæg, Herr Kristensen

hvorfor dælen får aktien så mange høvl så ?
Omkring 7% ned her til aften. Gentager lige mit link til stockcharts.com: http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=TSL&p=D&b=5&g=0&id=p..



30/11 2010 22:38 Kristensen 036701



Tak Garlic!

Ved heller ikke hvad der sker, men hele solsektoren falder pænt her til aften - med TSL i front. Regnskabet overgår alle forventninger og der kommer oven i købet meget positive udmeldinger for 2011, så forstår det simpelthen ikke.



30/11 2010 22:52 akademikeren 036703



Lidt kritisk baggrund for sektoren som helhed:

http://www.newbizviews.com/2010/11/24/why-do-booming-..

Og Her hele præsentationen
http://media.corporate-ir.net/media_files/IROL/20/206..

også med geografisk fordeling, ser at Kina er kommet med over aftagere og det er jo godt.



30/11 2010 22:58 Kristensen 036706



Smider lige en kommentar, jeg smed i en gammel tråd:

Jim Cramer og TheStreet.com's Ken Shreve ser negativt på solar-sektoren:
http://maddmoney.net/jim-cramers-off-the-charts-first..

Credit Suisse nedgraderer solarsektoren over hele linjen:
http://247wallst.com/2010/11/17/analyst-crushes-solar..
Især dette citat er interessant:
"Credit Suisse went very cautious on the solar cycle on supply growth and subsidy concerns. New cell capacity is being added at a current monthly rate of 2 Gigawatts per month in 4Q10 and how the top 20 producers aim for production hikes of 50% in 2011 while there is expected to be only “flattish market for demand in 2011.”



30/11 2010 23:11 renek 036707



Jeg husker tydeligt februar/marts 2009, hvor et vennepar fik tvangssolgt deres TRINA S aktier (Er der nogen der kan huske Finankr...?).

Kastede efterfølgende et kort blik på den og syntes da også det var en tåbelig aktie. Ak og ve...



30/11 2010 23:53 Kristensen 136708



Man skal selvfølgelig tage højde for en høj volatilitet med en Beta på 3,20. Solcellebranchen er generalt meget flyvende op og ned og meget konjunkturfølsom, da lønsomheden afhænger meget af tilskud ved salg af elektriciteten. Men i en verden der vil være grønnere er det måske ikke så stor en trussel mere.



1/12 2010 08:59 TeamGarlic 036714



Trina Solar udvider kapaciteten til næste år, som mange andre og det trykker markedet. Et rygte går på, at Trina Solar vil udvide mere end annonceret.



1/12 2010 09:04 akademikeren 036715



men hvis efterspørgslen stiger og ikke kan dækkes af nuværende produktion ville det jo også være mærkeligt. Spørgsmålet er om solcelleenergi vil boome fortsat eller vil aftage?

Jeg tror alt energi vil boome, specielt hvis man kan afsætte det til asien også.



1/12 2010 20:44 Nippon1976 336747



Hej Kristensen

Trina solar er også en aktie jeg følger og også har en lille potion af.
Teknisk ser jeg dog pt lidt downside på kort sigt. Omkring 20,1 kunne være et godt sted at fange den. Der er dog mulighed for at den skal lidt længere ned, ned i 18-19 stykker og ramme bunden af den lange trendkanal.
Bemærk head and shoulders pattern.

FA, fundamentalanalyse, solar, solcellebranchen, solceller, TSL




1/12 2010 20:46 Nippon1976 136748



20,1 det kom jeg frem til ved at beregne target for head and shoulders-pattern



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