Shipping/analytikere: Lukket Suez-kanal vil være en gave til raterne
Publicerat 2011-01-31 16:15:42
KØBENHAVN (Direkt) Hvis de voldsomme uroligheder i Egypten ender med en lukning af trafikken gennem Suez-kanalen, vil det være en gave for fragtraterne. Den øgede sejltid vil ændre forholdet mellem udbud og efterspørgsel markant og vil alt andet lige sende raterne op. En længerevarende lukning er dog ikke sandsynlig, vurderer eksperter over for Nyhedsbureauet Direkt.
For øjeblikket fortsætter trafikken gennem kanalen. Men byen Suez er ramt af voldsomme uroligheder, hvor byens politihovedkvarter er overtaget af demonstranter, og flere havnemedarbejdere ifølge Al Arabiya er blevet sendt hjem. Samtidig er næsten al kommunikation i landet lagt ned.
"Det vil nok være usandsynligt, at vi ser en lukning af ret lang varighed. Men dermed ikke sagt, at kanalen ikke sagtens kan lukke en uges tid, hvis generalstrejken bliver gennemført. Udfordringerne er i øjeblikket, at eksempelvis kommunikationsnetværket er lagt nærmest helt ned," fortæller shipping ekspert Peter Sand fra analysevirksomheden BIMCO til Nyhedsbureauet Direkt og fortsætter:
"Så i forhold til at skulle samarbejde med havneagenter og Port Authority er det meget svært. Der er trafik igennem, men den er meget mere besværlig, end den plejer at være,"
Barclays, Goldman Sachs og Société Générale mener også, at sandsynligheden for en længerevarende lukning er lille. Exclusive Analysis anser risikoen for en lukning som moderat, ifølge shippingavisen Lloyds List. Hvis det sker, vil det have stor betydning for transporten af containere, tørlast og olie.
"Set med rene containershippingøjne, vil en lukning af Suez-kanalen være det bedste, der kunne ske. Der går 35.000 skibe af forskellig art igennem Suez hvert år. Hvis den enorme mængde skibe skal sejle syd om Afrika vil det kræve langt mere kapacitet," siger Peter Sand og uddyber:
"En klassisk containerrute fra Singapore til Rotterdam tager 35 dage for en rundtur, hvis du går gennem Suez. Hvis du skal sejle syd om, tager det 43-44 dage. Så hvis de sejler på fuld damp, vil det kræve 20 pct. mere kapacitet at få den samme mængde last igennem. Så det vil være et helt andet udbud/efterspørgsels-billede."
Den vurdering er shippingbrokeren ACM Shipping helt enig i:
"Hvis kanalen lukker, vil det give en skarp stigning i charterraterne. Stigningen vil være over hele sektoren, fra fragtskibe til olie og produkttank," siger Johnny Plumbe fra ACM Shipping til Lloyds List.
Der skal dog være tale om en længere lukning, før det får en direkte effekt for eksempelvis danske A.P. Møller - Mærsk.
"Den første effekt af en eventuel lukning vil være lidt negativ. Der kan komme noget force majeure, hvor Maersk Line ikke får sine penge. Afhængig af, hvor lang tid den tager, kan en lukning være både positiv og negativ for Maersk Line. Den skal være lukket i måneder eller kvartaler, før man begynder at sejle sydom. Det tager minimum en måned, at sætte en ny string op. Så der skal være en lang tidshorisont på disse her lukninger, før der begynder at komme ændringer," siger shippinganalytiker hos SEB Enskilda, Nikolaj Kamedula, til Direkt.
Det ville dog ikke være første gang, Suez-kanalen var lukket. Første gang i 1957 og senere efter seksdagskrigen mellem Israel og Egypten. Her var kanalen lukket fra 1967 frem til 1975.
"Der kan man se, hvad der skete med fragtraterne. De kendte kun én vej, og det var stejlt opad," siger Peter Sand.
http://www.direkt-dk.dk/Direkt/Default.aspx
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2/2 2011 21:49 ICET 0
38431 Takker - tror snart det r tid for lidt Dry "stuff# i porten. Længe siden iøvrigt. Hilsen.
/IceT
/IceT
Suez Canal links
website http://www.suezcanal.gov.eg/
the traffic system in Suez Canal
http://www.suezcanal.gov.eg/simulation.aspx
the saving in distance via Suez Canal
http://www.suezcanal.gov.eg/saving.html
IceT - Hyggeligt at du stadig er med
website http://www.suezcanal.gov.eg/
the traffic system in Suez Canal
http://www.suezcanal.gov.eg/simulation.aspx
the saving in distance via Suez Canal
http://www.suezcanal.gov.eg/saving.html
IceT - Hyggeligt at du stadig er med
4/2 2011 10:56 fcras 038488 Suez Canal Stays Open, Ports Congested
Bruce Barnard | Feb 3, 2011 5:23PM GMT
Cairo violence escalates amid nationwide curfew
The Suez Canal remained open to ship transits Thursday and shipping companies are re-opening offices despite escalating violence in Cairo between supporters and opponents of Egyptian president Hosni Mubarak and a nationwide curfew.
"The Suez Canal is functioning without delays," Inchcape Shipping Services said in an update Thursday.
"However, ports are being hampered by a lack of labor and fuel for dockside equipment," the international marine services company said.
According to published reports from the region, many ships transiting the canal are not stopping for routine services or changing crews out of concern for the safety of their workers.
Container terminals are working between 9 a.m. and 2 p.m., but there is congestion on the terminal side as containers are not being released.
Bulk operations are only taking place for non-direct delivery cargo, but oil and gas terminals are fully operational, Inchcape said.
With a curfew in place between 3 p.m. and 8 a.m., there are difficulties contacting offices of shipping companies and shipping agents. Inchcape said its staff is working from home with mobile phone and internet access.
A.P. Moller-Maersk said its Maersk Line, Safmarine and Damco offices re-opened Thursday after being shut for three days and there are limited vessel operations at the Suez Canal Container Terminal in Port Said, which is majority owned by its APM Terminals unit.
Maersk, which has around 7,000 employees in Egypt, confirmed its ships are transiting the Suez Canal as scheduled. On average four to five Maersk Line and Safmarine container vessels sail through the waterway every day.
Container ships make up the largest single share of vessel transits through the canal and several shipping lines say they are watching the situation closely for signs of disruption.
"We plan to continue our Evergreen Line services through the Suez Canal but our priority will be the safety our crew and ship, as well as the cargo entrusted to us," a spokeswoman for Evergreen Marine said. "While the situation in Egypt continues to impact us commercially and operationally, omitting calls at ports in Egypt would be an unavoidable choice."
http://www.joc.com/maritime/suez-canal-stays-open-ports-congested
Bruce Barnard | Feb 3, 2011 5:23PM GMT
Cairo violence escalates amid nationwide curfew
The Suez Canal remained open to ship transits Thursday and shipping companies are re-opening offices despite escalating violence in Cairo between supporters and opponents of Egyptian president Hosni Mubarak and a nationwide curfew.
"The Suez Canal is functioning without delays," Inchcape Shipping Services said in an update Thursday.
"However, ports are being hampered by a lack of labor and fuel for dockside equipment," the international marine services company said.
According to published reports from the region, many ships transiting the canal are not stopping for routine services or changing crews out of concern for the safety of their workers.
Container terminals are working between 9 a.m. and 2 p.m., but there is congestion on the terminal side as containers are not being released.
Bulk operations are only taking place for non-direct delivery cargo, but oil and gas terminals are fully operational, Inchcape said.
With a curfew in place between 3 p.m. and 8 a.m., there are difficulties contacting offices of shipping companies and shipping agents. Inchcape said its staff is working from home with mobile phone and internet access.
A.P. Moller-Maersk said its Maersk Line, Safmarine and Damco offices re-opened Thursday after being shut for three days and there are limited vessel operations at the Suez Canal Container Terminal in Port Said, which is majority owned by its APM Terminals unit.
Maersk, which has around 7,000 employees in Egypt, confirmed its ships are transiting the Suez Canal as scheduled. On average four to five Maersk Line and Safmarine container vessels sail through the waterway every day.
Container ships make up the largest single share of vessel transits through the canal and several shipping lines say they are watching the situation closely for signs of disruption.
"We plan to continue our Evergreen Line services through the Suez Canal but our priority will be the safety our crew and ship, as well as the cargo entrusted to us," a spokeswoman for Evergreen Marine said. "While the situation in Egypt continues to impact us commercially and operationally, omitting calls at ports in Egypt would be an unavoidable choice."
http://www.joc.com/maritime/suez-canal-stays-open-ports-congested
