http://borsen.dk/politik/nyhed/154024/
Det er svært at se at det skulle ende med andet end problemer på sigt. Enten iform af forsyningsusikkerhed (i tilfælde af at man mener den ikke er tilstede allerede) eller i kraftigt forhøjede priser til EU.
Graver Rusland deres egen grav påny og hvad bliver udfaldet når de ikke længere kan bruges deres seneste masseødelæggelsesvåben (olie og gas og andre naturressourcer?). Vil de så gå tilbage til den gamle form for våben og mere håndgribelige trusler som vi så det mod Georgien.... Puha, hverken det ene eller det andet er noget rart scenarie, så længe vi ikke er selvforsynende i Europa. Og bliver vi selvforsynende så er det 2. scenarie stadig ikke rart.....
Var det ikke også på tide med en ny GES-tråd, hvis vi skal holde dampen oppe mod GEN-trådene, hvor Aka jo frejdigt rekrutterer nye skribenter fra EI for at holde førertrøjen..... (velkommen til sugaralf)
Det er svært at se at det skulle ende med andet end problemer på sigt. Enten iform af forsyningsusikkerhed (i tilfælde af at man mener den ikke er tilstede allerede) eller i kraftigt forhøjede priser til EU.
Graver Rusland deres egen grav påny og hvad bliver udfaldet når de ikke længere kan bruges deres seneste masseødelæggelsesvåben (olie og gas og andre naturressourcer?). Vil de så gå tilbage til den gamle form for våben og mere håndgribelige trusler som vi så det mod Georgien.... Puha, hverken det ene eller det andet er noget rart scenarie, så længe vi ikke er selvforsynende i Europa. Og bliver vi selvforsynende så er det 2. scenarie stadig ikke rart.....
Var det ikke også på tide med en ny GES-tråd, hvis vi skal holde dampen oppe mod GEN-trådene, hvor Aka jo frejdigt rekrutterer nye skribenter fra EI for at holde førertrøjen..... (velkommen til sugaralf)
24/3 2009 15:49 Kenddinvare 0
5589 Gas- og oliepris er ved at være fast i niveau og måske endda fortsat stigende, men de tager nok et dyk sammen med aktier, når den nuværende optrend over de seneste uger stopper.
I forhold til GES er der en vigtig ikke selskabsspecific ting at holde øje med, nemlig det europæiske finansmarked.
Hvordan går det med renter og udlånsvillighed???
I forhold til GES er der en vigtig ikke selskabsspecific ting at holde øje med, nemlig det europæiske finansmarked.
Hvordan går det med renter og udlånsvillighed???
24/3 2009 16:52 le 05602 underligt at rusland ikke kunne finde en mere smart måde at løse gaskrisen med ukraine på
de har nu ødelagt deres ry som pålidelig leverandør af energi
jeg så at deres gas eksport var faldet voldsomt indtil nu i år og det var nærmest op mod 50% i januar og februar og 25% i marts indtil nu, men jeg husker ikke tallene præcist
de har nu ødelagt deres ry som pålidelig leverandør af energi
jeg så at deres gas eksport var faldet voldsomt indtil nu i år og det var nærmest op mod 50% i januar og februar og 25% i marts indtil nu, men jeg husker ikke tallene præcist
24/3 2009 16:55 le 05603 artiklen var her
Gazprom's gas exports drop almost 50% since start of year - paper
14:56 | 18/ 03/ 2009
MOSCOW, March 18 (RIA Novosti) - Gazprom's natural gas exports to countries other than former Soviet republics declined by 16 billion cubic meters to 24 billion cubic meters from January 1 to March 15, a business paper reported on Wednesday.
Vedomosti also reported, citing data of the central dispatch office in the fuel and energy complex that Gazprom's natural gas production was continuing to decline in March.
Gazprom's natural gas output fell 21% from March 1 to March 16 as compared with the same period last year and 9% in February 2009, Vedomosti reported.
A Gazprom senior manager told the paper that falling exports could be explained by the desire of European consumers to limit purchases of expensive gas as they sought to optimize the use of natural gas from storage facilities while waiting for prices to fall.
Gazprom's gas exports drop almost 50% since start of year - paper
14:56 | 18/ 03/ 2009
MOSCOW, March 18 (RIA Novosti) - Gazprom's natural gas exports to countries other than former Soviet republics declined by 16 billion cubic meters to 24 billion cubic meters from January 1 to March 15, a business paper reported on Wednesday.
Vedomosti also reported, citing data of the central dispatch office in the fuel and energy complex that Gazprom's natural gas production was continuing to decline in March.
Gazprom's natural gas output fell 21% from March 1 to March 16 as compared with the same period last year and 9% in February 2009, Vedomosti reported.
A Gazprom senior manager told the paper that falling exports could be explained by the desire of European consumers to limit purchases of expensive gas as they sought to optimize the use of natural gas from storage facilities while waiting for prices to fall.
24/3 2009 16:57 stengård 05604 det er jo ikek første gang de har konfrontationer med Ukraine, Belarus med mere. Problemstillingen er jo nok at kontrakten er skruet helt forkert sammen med en blanding af modkøb, vedligeholdelses-udgifter, anlægsudgifter, punpeudgifter med mere - så selvom det ser relativt enkelt ud som RUS som den slemme dreng - så er billedet rent faktisk lidt mere broget.
Det ændrer til gengæld ikke ved at der er gedigen bekymring over ruslands adfærd i resten af verden...
Det ændrer til gengæld ikke ved at der er gedigen bekymring over ruslands adfærd i resten af verden...
24/3 2009 16:59 le 05605 det er klart at der var og er et problem fordi de tidligere sovjet stater stadig ikke betaler vedrensmarkedspriser
24/3 2009 17:00 le 05606 Economy Shrinks by 8% In First 2 Months of 2009
23 March 2009
Reuters
The economy shrank 8 percent in the first two months of the year, the Economic Development Ministry said Friday, as First Deputy Prime Minister Igor Shuvalov signaled that growth could return by the year's end.
The Russian economy has been rocked by a collapse in oil prices, vast outflows of capital and waning demand for exports as the global economic crisis intensified.
Consequently, gross domestic product is likely to contract by 7 percent year on year in the first quarter, Economic Development Minister Elvira Nabiullina told the government Thursday, according to the text of her speech published Friday.
The ministry stuck by its forecast for full-year contraction of just 2.2 percent, suggesting that things could improve before too long. That optimism was picked up by Shuvalov.
"In some sectors, we are noticing more liveliness and a positive mood," he told reporters. "We are already near the bottom, and we feel that by the end of the year we could have growth ... [But] it could be worse if the situation on the external market deteriorates."
Data suggest, however, that the situation stabilized in February -- even though the slowdown is in full swing and companies are cutting thousands of jobs per day -- giving some cause for investors and politicians to feel more optimistic.
Oil is now worth $5 more than the $41 per barrel year average factored into the government's revised 2009 forecasts and budget. But any signs of light at the end of the tunnel could be quickly extinguished by a renewed slump in crude prices.
"In an optimistic scenario of renewed world economic growth in 2010 and rising oil prices, the Russian economy could grow by between 2 and 4 percent in 2010," Nabiullina said.
She added that the realization of government anti-crisis measures -- worth some 1.6 trillion rubles ($47 billion) this year -- would play a key part in the economy's turnaround.
For now, data remains grim, but within the details there is reason for hope. Industrial production slumped 13.2 percent year on year last month, the second-worst reading on record but an improvement on January's 16 percent contraction.
Purchasing managers indexes for the services and the manufacturing sector have edged up in the past two months, though both remain deep in contraction territory.
Job losses have stabilized at 300,000 per month, while nominal wages have risen from January's eight-month low. A 14.1 percent fall in capital investment was less than expected.
"Stronger than expected data might suggest that the Russian economy could have already passed through the worst phase of the crisis," UniCredit said in a research note. "On the other hand ... all important indicators ... remain in deep negative territory or on a strong downward trend. This provides continued downside risks to economic growth."
23 March 2009
Reuters
The economy shrank 8 percent in the first two months of the year, the Economic Development Ministry said Friday, as First Deputy Prime Minister Igor Shuvalov signaled that growth could return by the year's end.
The Russian economy has been rocked by a collapse in oil prices, vast outflows of capital and waning demand for exports as the global economic crisis intensified.
Consequently, gross domestic product is likely to contract by 7 percent year on year in the first quarter, Economic Development Minister Elvira Nabiullina told the government Thursday, according to the text of her speech published Friday.
The ministry stuck by its forecast for full-year contraction of just 2.2 percent, suggesting that things could improve before too long. That optimism was picked up by Shuvalov.
"In some sectors, we are noticing more liveliness and a positive mood," he told reporters. "We are already near the bottom, and we feel that by the end of the year we could have growth ... [But] it could be worse if the situation on the external market deteriorates."
Data suggest, however, that the situation stabilized in February -- even though the slowdown is in full swing and companies are cutting thousands of jobs per day -- giving some cause for investors and politicians to feel more optimistic.
Oil is now worth $5 more than the $41 per barrel year average factored into the government's revised 2009 forecasts and budget. But any signs of light at the end of the tunnel could be quickly extinguished by a renewed slump in crude prices.
"In an optimistic scenario of renewed world economic growth in 2010 and rising oil prices, the Russian economy could grow by between 2 and 4 percent in 2010," Nabiullina said.
She added that the realization of government anti-crisis measures -- worth some 1.6 trillion rubles ($47 billion) this year -- would play a key part in the economy's turnaround.
For now, data remains grim, but within the details there is reason for hope. Industrial production slumped 13.2 percent year on year last month, the second-worst reading on record but an improvement on January's 16 percent contraction.
Purchasing managers indexes for the services and the manufacturing sector have edged up in the past two months, though both remain deep in contraction territory.
Job losses have stabilized at 300,000 per month, while nominal wages have risen from January's eight-month low. A 14.1 percent fall in capital investment was less than expected.
"Stronger than expected data might suggest that the Russian economy could have already passed through the worst phase of the crisis," UniCredit said in a research note. "On the other hand ... all important indicators ... remain in deep negative territory or on a strong downward trend. This provides continued downside risks to economic growth."
24/3 2009 17:11 le 05608 Commercial Vacancy Rising in St. Pete
24 March 2009
By Nadezhda Zaitseva / Vedomosti
Rental rates in St. Petersburg shopping centers have fallen by almost one-third since the fall, and vacancy rates range from 10 percent to 30 percent, analysts say.
According to figures from Colliers International, 146 shopping centers were operating in St. Petersburg with a total area of 3.7 million square meters at the end of last year. Seventeen new centers were opened in 2008, with a combined 445,000 square meters of space, or 240,00 square meters less than planned, said Roman Yevstratov, deputy head of Colliers International's commercial real estate department.
In the first quarter of 2009, 120,000 square meters were finished, primarily in projects that were delayed for completion in 2008, said Anton Vikharev, a senior consultant at Maris Properties in association with CB Richard Ellis. Another 370,000 square meters are planned to be completed by the end of the year, he said, although Yevstratov said he thought that in all likelihood, no more than 170,000 square meters would be built this year.
Many developers have reconsidered their plans because of the crisis, analysts said. Some are trying to sell their projects, while others are indefinitely freezing them, said Nikolai Pashkov, of Knight Frank St. Petersburg. He said he thought that work on about 20 percent of current and planned shopping centers was frozen.
Adamant has halted new projects because of rising interest on bank loans. Yevrogarden, which owns the Zelyonaya Strana hypermarket chain, is offering in a Dutch auction 3 hectares on Pulkovskoye Shosse where it had planned to develop a $20 million shopping center. Yelena Tsareva, the company's marketing director, said the decision was made "because of the crisis."
Since last fall, land prices in St. Petersburg have weakened by 30 percent, and they could drop another 15 percent by this fall, said Valery Borzilov, financial director of LenspetsSMU.
Mercury, which had been slated to finish the reconstruction of the Leningrad House of Trade by March, has made a request to the authorities to push the finish date back to 2010. Mercury general director Alexander Reyebok said the project would be finished and its conceptualization would not be changed.
Nikolai Kazansky, of Colliers International, said he thought that it would make sense to retarget the project toward a lower-income segment since luxury goods were not in high demand in St. Petersburg even before the crisis.
Yevstratov estimated that visits to shopping malls in February and March have fallen 15 percent, based on retailers' traffic. Vikharev said there were 10 percent to 30 percent fewer shoppers, depending on the type of complex.
Leaseholders, too, have been forced to correct their development plans. Pashkov said many companies would now rather pay a fine for breaking their contracts than opening a store.
24 March 2009
By Nadezhda Zaitseva / Vedomosti
Rental rates in St. Petersburg shopping centers have fallen by almost one-third since the fall, and vacancy rates range from 10 percent to 30 percent, analysts say.
According to figures from Colliers International, 146 shopping centers were operating in St. Petersburg with a total area of 3.7 million square meters at the end of last year. Seventeen new centers were opened in 2008, with a combined 445,000 square meters of space, or 240,00 square meters less than planned, said Roman Yevstratov, deputy head of Colliers International's commercial real estate department.
In the first quarter of 2009, 120,000 square meters were finished, primarily in projects that were delayed for completion in 2008, said Anton Vikharev, a senior consultant at Maris Properties in association with CB Richard Ellis. Another 370,000 square meters are planned to be completed by the end of the year, he said, although Yevstratov said he thought that in all likelihood, no more than 170,000 square meters would be built this year.
Many developers have reconsidered their plans because of the crisis, analysts said. Some are trying to sell their projects, while others are indefinitely freezing them, said Nikolai Pashkov, of Knight Frank St. Petersburg. He said he thought that work on about 20 percent of current and planned shopping centers was frozen.
Adamant has halted new projects because of rising interest on bank loans. Yevrogarden, which owns the Zelyonaya Strana hypermarket chain, is offering in a Dutch auction 3 hectares on Pulkovskoye Shosse where it had planned to develop a $20 million shopping center. Yelena Tsareva, the company's marketing director, said the decision was made "because of the crisis."
Since last fall, land prices in St. Petersburg have weakened by 30 percent, and they could drop another 15 percent by this fall, said Valery Borzilov, financial director of LenspetsSMU.
Mercury, which had been slated to finish the reconstruction of the Leningrad House of Trade by March, has made a request to the authorities to push the finish date back to 2010. Mercury general director Alexander Reyebok said the project would be finished and its conceptualization would not be changed.
Nikolai Kazansky, of Colliers International, said he thought that it would make sense to retarget the project toward a lower-income segment since luxury goods were not in high demand in St. Petersburg even before the crisis.
Yevstratov estimated that visits to shopping malls in February and March have fallen 15 percent, based on retailers' traffic. Vikharev said there were 10 percent to 30 percent fewer shoppers, depending on the type of complex.
Leaseholders, too, have been forced to correct their development plans. Pashkov said many companies would now rather pay a fine for breaking their contracts than opening a store.
24/3 2009 17:14 le 05610 Basargin Says Construction Aid Will Help Fix Economy
24 March 2009
The Moscow Times
Residential construction should become a key tool for getting the economy back on track, Regional Development Minister Viktor Basargin wrote in a commentary in Rossiiskaya Gazeta on Tuesday.
As an anti-crisis measure, 55 billion rubles ($1.6 billion) will be spent for apartment building renovation and maintenance, he said. A total of 116 billion rubles have already been allocated for building and maintaining residential housing in 79 regions.
The renovation programs employ over 1.5 million people throughout the county and add up to 30 percent to local and regional budgets.
The government has no plans to cut construction spending, Basargin said, citing as an example a government decision last week that reversed plans to cut the program's financing by 8 billion rubles.
Measures will be taken to raise the capitalization of the Mortgage Lending Agency and lower interest rates on mortgages in order to stimulate the housing market, Basargin said.
Basargin also said government purchases accounted for up to 16 percent of the homes sold in the regional residential housing market.
Other measures for stimulating the economy in the regions include 20 billion rubles in subsidies given to citizens for buying domestically made products, including automobile parts, and using extra money on the balance sheets of government corporations to credit regional investment projects, Basargin said.
"This measure will support not only the Russian automobile industry, it will also help the development of transport and residential complexes in the regions," Basargin said.
Regional infrastructure projects will receive 62 billion rubles in 2009 funding and create 15,000 jobs, he said.
24 March 2009
The Moscow Times
Residential construction should become a key tool for getting the economy back on track, Regional Development Minister Viktor Basargin wrote in a commentary in Rossiiskaya Gazeta on Tuesday.
As an anti-crisis measure, 55 billion rubles ($1.6 billion) will be spent for apartment building renovation and maintenance, he said. A total of 116 billion rubles have already been allocated for building and maintaining residential housing in 79 regions.
The renovation programs employ over 1.5 million people throughout the county and add up to 30 percent to local and regional budgets.
The government has no plans to cut construction spending, Basargin said, citing as an example a government decision last week that reversed plans to cut the program's financing by 8 billion rubles.
Measures will be taken to raise the capitalization of the Mortgage Lending Agency and lower interest rates on mortgages in order to stimulate the housing market, Basargin said.
Basargin also said government purchases accounted for up to 16 percent of the homes sold in the regional residential housing market.
Other measures for stimulating the economy in the regions include 20 billion rubles in subsidies given to citizens for buying domestically made products, including automobile parts, and using extra money on the balance sheets of government corporations to credit regional investment projects, Basargin said.
"This measure will support not only the Russian automobile industry, it will also help the development of transport and residential complexes in the regions," Basargin said.
Regional infrastructure projects will receive 62 billion rubles in 2009 funding and create 15,000 jobs, he said.
