25/3 2009 20:03 le 0
5832 peter schiff
jeg synes han er dum at høre på
http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/21134540/vp/27099562#29875591
jeg synes han er dum at høre på
http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/21134540/vp/27099562#29875591
Geithner sends dollar on roller-coaster ride
By Nick Godt, MarketWatch
Last update: 6:00 p.m. EDT March 25, 2009Comments: 125
NEW YORK (MarketWatch) -- Treasury Secretary Timothy Geithner shook markets Wednesday when some of his comments over China's call for a new global reserve currency led to confusion over U.S. policy and triggered a brief plunge in the dollar.
Speaking at a conference in New York, Geithner was asked his thoughts about comments from People's Bank of China Gov. Zhou Xiaochuan, who has called for a new international reserve currency to replace the dollar.
Earlier this week, Zhou suggested that the International Monetary Fund's Special Drawing Right should be given a greater role. The SDR is an international reserve asset, created by the IMF in 1969 to support the Bretton Woods fixed exchange-rate system. Its value is based on a basket of key international currencies. Read more on China's call for a new reserve currency.
"I haven't read the entire proposal," Geithner said. "But the governor is a sensible man [and] anything he says deserves consideration." As for "increasing the IMF drawing reserves, we are favorable to that."
The dollar index ($DXY:
83.73, -0.05, -0.1%) , which measures the U.S. unit against a trade-weighted basket of six major currencies, plunged about 1% in the minutes following Geithner's remarks.
The sharp market reaction forced Geithner to clarify his statements during his press conference.
The dollar remains the main global reserve currency, Geithner said, adding he does not see a change in that status in the foreseeable future. Speaking later on CNBC, he further clarified official U.S. policy by reiterating the Treasury's long-held stance that a strong dollar is in America's interest.
The dollar regained some lost ground after the clarification. See Currencies.
"But the damage was done," said Michael Gregory, senior economist at BMO Capital Markets.
"There are theoretical merits to a non-country specific reserve currency such as the SDR," Gregory said. "But two wrongs don't make a right, and this is not a university lecture."
"Perhaps Geithner was attempting to give the Chinese an olive branch after his early-in-term politically-incorrect comment that China is manipulating the yuan," Gregory said, referring to comments Geithner made in January.
U.S.-China policy
Zhou's suggestions and Geithner's comments came ahead of a key meeting between leading nations next week.
Finance ministers and central bankers from the G20, which includes 19 of the world's largest economies and the European Union, are due to meet April 2, to address ways to tackle the global financial and economic crisis.
While currency policy is not on the official agenda, underlying tensions may come to the fore.
Tensions over currency and trade were a fixture of U.S.-Chinese relations over the past few years. The U.S., along with other countries, has accused Beijing of keeping the yuan artificially low in order to boost its exports.
The global financial and economic meltdown has partly changed the game. China is the largest holder of U.S. Treasury debt, and as it continues to buy more government bonds each month, Beijing helps keep interest rates low in the U.S. Yields on government bonds, which move inversely to their price, are used to benchmark mortgage rates and other consumer loans.
But with the U.S. now planning to spend $1 trillion to rescue its ailing banks, Chinese Premier Wen Jiabo indicated earlier this month that China worried about the safety of its U.S. investments in Treasurys.
Although the dollar has been stronger in recent months, as global investors turned to it as a safe haven asset, some worry that the U.S. currency could resume its multi-year decline as the government floods the system with dollars to boost the economy.
Last week, the Federal Reserve led the dollar to plunge as it announced a plan to buy up to $300 billion of Treasurys to bring borrowing costs down.
And on Wednesday, a Treasury auction of $34 billion worth of five-year notes drew less-than-expected demand. Indirect bidders, a closely watched metric because it includes buying by foreign central banks, bought 30% of the monthly auction, the lowest since December. See Bond Report.
Still, the U.S. might be unofficially open to expanding the IMF's SDR system, which would result in a marginally weaker dollar, according to some analysts.
"A weaker dollar is stimulative for the U.S. economy and would relieve the U.S. of worrying about implementing effective monetary policy while weighing the international demand for a reserve currency," said Kathy Lien, director of currency research at Global Forex Trading.
Still, speaking on CNBC, Geithner said that a strong dollar was in America's interest. The Obama administration will do "everything" to improve America's economy and to keep the U.S. debt burden "at a low and stable level", he said.
The U.S., he said, is working "very closely" with China, and China "has a lot of confidence in U.S. policy."
By Nick Godt, MarketWatch
Last update: 6:00 p.m. EDT March 25, 2009Comments: 125
NEW YORK (MarketWatch) -- Treasury Secretary Timothy Geithner shook markets Wednesday when some of his comments over China's call for a new global reserve currency led to confusion over U.S. policy and triggered a brief plunge in the dollar.
Speaking at a conference in New York, Geithner was asked his thoughts about comments from People's Bank of China Gov. Zhou Xiaochuan, who has called for a new international reserve currency to replace the dollar.
Earlier this week, Zhou suggested that the International Monetary Fund's Special Drawing Right should be given a greater role. The SDR is an international reserve asset, created by the IMF in 1969 to support the Bretton Woods fixed exchange-rate system. Its value is based on a basket of key international currencies. Read more on China's call for a new reserve currency.
"I haven't read the entire proposal," Geithner said. "But the governor is a sensible man [and] anything he says deserves consideration." As for "increasing the IMF drawing reserves, we are favorable to that."
The dollar index ($DXY:
83.73, -0.05, -0.1%) , which measures the U.S. unit against a trade-weighted basket of six major currencies, plunged about 1% in the minutes following Geithner's remarks.
The sharp market reaction forced Geithner to clarify his statements during his press conference.
The dollar remains the main global reserve currency, Geithner said, adding he does not see a change in that status in the foreseeable future. Speaking later on CNBC, he further clarified official U.S. policy by reiterating the Treasury's long-held stance that a strong dollar is in America's interest.
The dollar regained some lost ground after the clarification. See Currencies.
"But the damage was done," said Michael Gregory, senior economist at BMO Capital Markets.
"There are theoretical merits to a non-country specific reserve currency such as the SDR," Gregory said. "But two wrongs don't make a right, and this is not a university lecture."
"Perhaps Geithner was attempting to give the Chinese an olive branch after his early-in-term politically-incorrect comment that China is manipulating the yuan," Gregory said, referring to comments Geithner made in January.
U.S.-China policy
Zhou's suggestions and Geithner's comments came ahead of a key meeting between leading nations next week.
Finance ministers and central bankers from the G20, which includes 19 of the world's largest economies and the European Union, are due to meet April 2, to address ways to tackle the global financial and economic crisis.
While currency policy is not on the official agenda, underlying tensions may come to the fore.
Tensions over currency and trade were a fixture of U.S.-Chinese relations over the past few years. The U.S., along with other countries, has accused Beijing of keeping the yuan artificially low in order to boost its exports.
The global financial and economic meltdown has partly changed the game. China is the largest holder of U.S. Treasury debt, and as it continues to buy more government bonds each month, Beijing helps keep interest rates low in the U.S. Yields on government bonds, which move inversely to their price, are used to benchmark mortgage rates and other consumer loans.
But with the U.S. now planning to spend $1 trillion to rescue its ailing banks, Chinese Premier Wen Jiabo indicated earlier this month that China worried about the safety of its U.S. investments in Treasurys.
Although the dollar has been stronger in recent months, as global investors turned to it as a safe haven asset, some worry that the U.S. currency could resume its multi-year decline as the government floods the system with dollars to boost the economy.
Last week, the Federal Reserve led the dollar to plunge as it announced a plan to buy up to $300 billion of Treasurys to bring borrowing costs down.
And on Wednesday, a Treasury auction of $34 billion worth of five-year notes drew less-than-expected demand. Indirect bidders, a closely watched metric because it includes buying by foreign central banks, bought 30% of the monthly auction, the lowest since December. See Bond Report.
Still, the U.S. might be unofficially open to expanding the IMF's SDR system, which would result in a marginally weaker dollar, according to some analysts.
"A weaker dollar is stimulative for the U.S. economy and would relieve the U.S. of worrying about implementing effective monetary policy while weighing the international demand for a reserve currency," said Kathy Lien, director of currency research at Global Forex Trading.
Still, speaking on CNBC, Geithner said that a strong dollar was in America's interest. The Obama administration will do "everything" to improve America's economy and to keep the U.S. debt burden "at a low and stable level", he said.
The U.S., he said, is working "very closely" with China, and China "has a lot of confidence in U.S. policy."
Le er du stadig på at dollaren skal stige? Eller har du ændret mening. Jeg ved snart ikke hvad jeg skal mene og jeg er derfor ikke helt glad ved at gå ind i US stocks på lang sigt.
26/3 2009 12:46 le 05922 ja, jeg regner med at dollaren vil holde sig stabilt over for euro med stigende trend, medens den så vil falde over for den kinesiske valuta, hvis og når den kinesiske valuta begynder at afspejle realiteterne
så dollaren burde ikke forhindre investering i amerikanske aktier
så dollaren burde ikke forhindre investering i amerikanske aktier
Ja jeg er faneme ikke sikker, jeg synes vi er ude i noget makroøkonomisk crap her. Er der nogen der ved hvad Buffet siger om valutaen. Han har sku nærmest altid ret....
26/3 2009 14:39 Track 05930 Såfremt du er usikker på USD udvikling, så er det muligt andre også er det og at de ikke vil kunne gøre dig tryg uanset. Derfor kunne den bedste konklusion være ingen konklusion!
Tak for ingenting siger du så
))
Overvej at gøre din portefølje USD neutral, så du er ligeglad med hvad den gør. Et eksempel er at vælge nogle gode lange og nogle gode shorte positioner med samme vægtning i USD. Så er du USD neutral.
F.eks. gå lang i US large cap og short small cap ved hjælp af Direxion ETFs, hvis du kan li dem http://finance.yahoo.com/lookup/etfs?s=direxion&t=E&m=ALL&r=3 Hvorfor lige large cap/short cap - well, Faber mener large cap vil gøre det bedre end small cap, så snart small cap løber tør for likviditet. I øjeblikket outperformer S&P500 (large cap) small/midcap marginalt, men forskellen vil antageligt vokse - check http://stockcharts.com/charts/performance/perf.html?$SPX,$MID,$SML . Man behøver ikke shorte/go long samme dag, i øjeblikket ville jeg starte med et par shorts lige før påsken og sidste dag før påske forhåbentlig hente et par billige long positioner.
Hvis large cap/small cap lyder kedeligt, så er long teknologi og short industri måske en mulighed... long emerging markets/Taiwan, Singapore, Brazil, måske Japan og short FTSE/IBEX...
Såfremt problematikken er ren cash beholdning, så opret både en USD og EUR konto. Du kan så holde 50/50 af valutaen på hver af dine konti. Derefter kan markedet gøre hvad det vil og du kan slappe af.
Husk - der er ligeså mange strategiske/taktiske muligheder, som vi har fantasi til...
Tak for ingenting siger du så
))Overvej at gøre din portefølje USD neutral, så du er ligeglad med hvad den gør. Et eksempel er at vælge nogle gode lange og nogle gode shorte positioner med samme vægtning i USD. Så er du USD neutral.
F.eks. gå lang i US large cap og short small cap ved hjælp af Direxion ETFs, hvis du kan li dem http://finance.yahoo.com/lookup/etfs?s=direxion&t=E&m=ALL&r=3 Hvorfor lige large cap/short cap - well, Faber mener large cap vil gøre det bedre end small cap, så snart small cap løber tør for likviditet. I øjeblikket outperformer S&P500 (large cap) small/midcap marginalt, men forskellen vil antageligt vokse - check http://stockcharts.com/charts/performance/perf.html?$SPX,$MID,$SML . Man behøver ikke shorte/go long samme dag, i øjeblikket ville jeg starte med et par shorts lige før påsken og sidste dag før påske forhåbentlig hente et par billige long positioner.
Hvis large cap/small cap lyder kedeligt, så er long teknologi og short industri måske en mulighed... long emerging markets/Taiwan, Singapore, Brazil, måske Japan og short FTSE/IBEX...
Såfremt problematikken er ren cash beholdning, så opret både en USD og EUR konto. Du kan så holde 50/50 af valutaen på hver af dine konti. Derefter kan markedet gøre hvad det vil og du kan slappe af.
Husk - der er ligeså mange strategiske/taktiske muligheder, som vi har fantasi til...
26/3 2009 14:44 Track 05932 Ooops, jeg "anklager" dig ikke for at være fantasiløs, men provokerer selvfølgelig til at tænke anderledes... )
)26/3 2009 14:54 Track 05934 PS: En positiv sideeffekt er også at med nogle longs og nogle shorts, så bliver man ikke kun mere USD neutral, men også mere markedsneutral, så humøret ikke behøver at svinge lige så meget op og ned, som markedet...
Hej Track! Tak for fedt input, inspiration og svar! Lige det jeg manglede 
26/3 2009 17:20 le 05952 EU presidency: US economic plans 'a way to hell'
Czech premier, currently European Union president, calls US economic measures 'a way to hell'
Raf Casert, Associated Press Writer
Wednesday March 25, 2009, 7:17 am EDT
Buzz up! Print STRASBOURG, France (AP) -- A top European Union politician on Wednesday slammed U.S. plans to spend its way out of recession as "a way to hell."
Czech Prime Minister Mirek Topolanek, whose country currently holds the EU presidency, told the European Parliament that President Barack Obama's massive stimulus package and banking bailout "will undermine the stability of the global financial market."
A day after his government collapsed because of a parliamentary vote of no-confidence, Topolanek took the EU presidency on a collision course with Washington over how to deal with the global economic recession.
Most European leaders favor tighter financial regulation, while the U.S. has been pushing for larger economic stimulus plans.
Topolanek's comments are the strongest criticism so far from a European leader as the 27-nation bloc bristles from recent U.S. criticism that it is not spending enough to stimulate demand.
They also pave the way for a stormy summit next week in London between leaders of the Group of 20 industrialized countries.
The host of the summit, British Prime Minister Gordon Brown, praised Obama on Tuesday for his willingness to work with Europe on reforming the global economy in the run-up to the G-20 summit.
The United States plans to spend heavily to try and lift its economy out of recession with a $787 billion economic stimulus plan of tax rebates, health and welfare benefits, as well as extra energy and infrastructure spending.
To encourage banks to lend again, the government will also pump $1 trillion into the financial system by buying up treasury bonds and mortgage securities in an effort to clear some of the "toxic assets" -- devalued and untradeable assets -- from banks' balance sheets.
Topolanek bluntly said that "the United States did not take the right path.".
He slammed the U.S.' widening budget deficit and protectionist trade measures -- such as the "Buy America" -- and said that "all of these steps, these combinations and permanency is the way to hell."
"We need to read the history books and the lessons of history and the biggest success of the (EU) is the refusal to go this way," he said.
"Americans will need liquidity to finance all their measures and they will balance this with the sale of their bonds but this will undermine the stability of the global financial market," said Topolanek.
Obama insisted Tuesday that his massive budget proposal is moving the nation down the right path and will help the ailing economy grow again. "This budget is inseparable from this recovery," he said, "because it is what lays the foundation for a secure and lasting prosperity."
Obama also claimed early progress in his aggressive campaign to lead the United States out of its worst economic crisis in 70 years and declared that despite obstacles ahead, the U.S. is "moving in the right direction."
AP Business Writer Aoife White in Brussels contributed to this report
Czech premier, currently European Union president, calls US economic measures 'a way to hell'
Raf Casert, Associated Press Writer
Wednesday March 25, 2009, 7:17 am EDT
Buzz up! Print STRASBOURG, France (AP) -- A top European Union politician on Wednesday slammed U.S. plans to spend its way out of recession as "a way to hell."
Czech Prime Minister Mirek Topolanek, whose country currently holds the EU presidency, told the European Parliament that President Barack Obama's massive stimulus package and banking bailout "will undermine the stability of the global financial market."
A day after his government collapsed because of a parliamentary vote of no-confidence, Topolanek took the EU presidency on a collision course with Washington over how to deal with the global economic recession.
Most European leaders favor tighter financial regulation, while the U.S. has been pushing for larger economic stimulus plans.
Topolanek's comments are the strongest criticism so far from a European leader as the 27-nation bloc bristles from recent U.S. criticism that it is not spending enough to stimulate demand.
They also pave the way for a stormy summit next week in London between leaders of the Group of 20 industrialized countries.
The host of the summit, British Prime Minister Gordon Brown, praised Obama on Tuesday for his willingness to work with Europe on reforming the global economy in the run-up to the G-20 summit.
The United States plans to spend heavily to try and lift its economy out of recession with a $787 billion economic stimulus plan of tax rebates, health and welfare benefits, as well as extra energy and infrastructure spending.
To encourage banks to lend again, the government will also pump $1 trillion into the financial system by buying up treasury bonds and mortgage securities in an effort to clear some of the "toxic assets" -- devalued and untradeable assets -- from banks' balance sheets.
Topolanek bluntly said that "the United States did not take the right path.".
He slammed the U.S.' widening budget deficit and protectionist trade measures -- such as the "Buy America" -- and said that "all of these steps, these combinations and permanency is the way to hell."
"We need to read the history books and the lessons of history and the biggest success of the (EU) is the refusal to go this way," he said.
"Americans will need liquidity to finance all their measures and they will balance this with the sale of their bonds but this will undermine the stability of the global financial market," said Topolanek.
Obama insisted Tuesday that his massive budget proposal is moving the nation down the right path and will help the ailing economy grow again. "This budget is inseparable from this recovery," he said, "because it is what lays the foundation for a secure and lasting prosperity."
Obama also claimed early progress in his aggressive campaign to lead the United States out of its worst economic crisis in 70 years and declared that despite obstacles ahead, the U.S. is "moving in the right direction."
AP Business Writer Aoife White in Brussels contributed to this report
