27/3 2009 23:35 le 0
6112 det er klart at kina, med deres stærke boom, der er det største verden nogen sinde har oplevet og 1.4 mia mennesker
selvfølgelig bliver verdens største økonomiske magt og at det betyder at kinas valuta vil opleve det samme som dollaren gjorde efter faldet af det britiske imperium til det amerikanske imperium og skiftet fra sterling til dollar som verdens hovedvaluta og den kinesiske valuta så overtager rollen som verdens hovedvaluta formodentlig inden der er gået 10 år
men derfor er det alligevel ikke rigtigt at blive ved med at kalde det doom og gloom for usa, usa er stadig en stærk nation med en stor økonomiske betydning og det betyder ikke at dollaren bliver værdiløs og heller ikke at den nuværende amerikanske politik skulle udløse inflation, det yderligere skulle udhule dollarens værdi
det er en helt naturlig ting, at lande absorberer tidens teknologi, produktivitet og dermed opnår en økonomiske størrelse, der svarer til befolkningens størrelse, hvilket jo allerede er sket med sydkorea, taiwan og malaysia, men de har så små befolkninger
at det først er nu hvor kina gør det samme i meget større målestok, at det viser at man ikke intellektuelt er i stand til at håndtere en meget naturlig proces, og indien kommer jo hurtigt efter kina'
det er ikke svært at forstå at man med 300 mio indbyggere i usa og en efter eget udsagn verdens stærkeste økonomi slet ikke har nogen chance over for et land med 1.4 mia indbyggere og 3½ mia indbyggere i hele asien
det er 10 gange så mange mennesker, der er i fuld gang med at nå samme levestandard som usa og det må man lære at leve med uden hele tiden at formulere det som et doom for dollaren og hvad man ellers finder på at sige for selvfølgelig skal valutaerne i kina og indien revaluere, men det er ikke det samme som at råbe doom for dollaren
i virkeligheden betyder det at når valutakurserne i asien stiger at usa kan få gang i eksporten til asien både pga valutaen og boomet i asien og i forvejen sælger de amerikanske virksomheder jo en masse i asien, de producerer det bare også i asien så det ikke optræder som eksport, men som et aktiv, der stiger i værdi
selvfølgelig bliver verdens største økonomiske magt og at det betyder at kinas valuta vil opleve det samme som dollaren gjorde efter faldet af det britiske imperium til det amerikanske imperium og skiftet fra sterling til dollar som verdens hovedvaluta og den kinesiske valuta så overtager rollen som verdens hovedvaluta formodentlig inden der er gået 10 år
men derfor er det alligevel ikke rigtigt at blive ved med at kalde det doom og gloom for usa, usa er stadig en stærk nation med en stor økonomiske betydning og det betyder ikke at dollaren bliver værdiløs og heller ikke at den nuværende amerikanske politik skulle udløse inflation, det yderligere skulle udhule dollarens værdi
det er en helt naturlig ting, at lande absorberer tidens teknologi, produktivitet og dermed opnår en økonomiske størrelse, der svarer til befolkningens størrelse, hvilket jo allerede er sket med sydkorea, taiwan og malaysia, men de har så små befolkninger
at det først er nu hvor kina gør det samme i meget større målestok, at det viser at man ikke intellektuelt er i stand til at håndtere en meget naturlig proces, og indien kommer jo hurtigt efter kina'
det er ikke svært at forstå at man med 300 mio indbyggere i usa og en efter eget udsagn verdens stærkeste økonomi slet ikke har nogen chance over for et land med 1.4 mia indbyggere og 3½ mia indbyggere i hele asien
det er 10 gange så mange mennesker, der er i fuld gang med at nå samme levestandard som usa og det må man lære at leve med uden hele tiden at formulere det som et doom for dollaren og hvad man ellers finder på at sige for selvfølgelig skal valutaerne i kina og indien revaluere, men det er ikke det samme som at råbe doom for dollaren
i virkeligheden betyder det at når valutakurserne i asien stiger at usa kan få gang i eksporten til asien både pga valutaen og boomet i asien og i forvejen sælger de amerikanske virksomheder jo en masse i asien, de producerer det bare også i asien så det ikke optræder som eksport, men som et aktiv, der stiger i værdi
Hej Le, det er meget berigende de indlæg du kommer med når du skriver noget mere tekst.
Jeg er for så vidt enig i at der ikke er noget unaturligt i at Kina vokser frem nu, men jeg er ret intesseret i dollaren på kort sigt. Jeg kan ikke få det makroøkonomiske til at gå op.
Men jeg er begyndt at blive radikal og svinger nu til at den bare bliver hvor den er.....
Jeg er for så vidt enig i at der ikke er noget unaturligt i at Kina vokser frem nu, men jeg er ret intesseret i dollaren på kort sigt. Jeg kan ikke få det makroøkonomiske til at gå op.
Men jeg er begyndt at blive radikal og svinger nu til at den bare bliver hvor den er.....
28/3 2009 00:16 le 06114 på kort sigt sidder vi allesammen på kanten af stolen
og lytter til udtalelser fra både den ene og den anden, især obama, geithner og kineserne og de ledende politikere i europa
der er INGEN klarhed på kort sigt og derfor er usikkerheden stadig stor, på alle områder
men kun på kort sigt
men jeg er da også mest interesseret i udviklingen de næste måneder på aktier, valuta mm, fordi jeg har penge i skidtet
men det er godt nok spændendne at følge med i sådan rent intellektuelt set, hvis man ser bort fra pengene
jeg prøver at følge så mange detailler jeg kan i det globale financielle mønster, men erkender at det ikke er helt nemt at finde ud af, hvad man skal mene
men jeg holder fast i mine grundbetragtningerne, at produktionen bundede her i 09 1q med store produktionsnedskæringer, at lagrene er blevet reduceret i 08 4q og 09 1q og at produktionen vil stige igen i slutningen af 09 2q og at aktierne er ved at reagere på den kommende opgang, der netop bliver trukket af usa foruden kina og asien, og at det vil styrke dollaren i forhold til euroen fordi europa først vil komme ud af krisen efter usa
det må være svært for obama med alle de bolde i luften, nu også afghanistan, alquida og selv iran
og lytter til udtalelser fra både den ene og den anden, især obama, geithner og kineserne og de ledende politikere i europa
der er INGEN klarhed på kort sigt og derfor er usikkerheden stadig stor, på alle områder
men kun på kort sigt
men jeg er da også mest interesseret i udviklingen de næste måneder på aktier, valuta mm, fordi jeg har penge i skidtet
men det er godt nok spændendne at følge med i sådan rent intellektuelt set, hvis man ser bort fra pengene
jeg prøver at følge så mange detailler jeg kan i det globale financielle mønster, men erkender at det ikke er helt nemt at finde ud af, hvad man skal mene
men jeg holder fast i mine grundbetragtningerne, at produktionen bundede her i 09 1q med store produktionsnedskæringer, at lagrene er blevet reduceret i 08 4q og 09 1q og at produktionen vil stige igen i slutningen af 09 2q og at aktierne er ved at reagere på den kommende opgang, der netop bliver trukket af usa foruden kina og asien, og at det vil styrke dollaren i forhold til euroen fordi europa først vil komme ud af krisen efter usa
det må være svært for obama med alle de bolde i luften, nu også afghanistan, alquida og selv iran
28/3 2009 00:29 le 06115 men fordi det hele er ret usikkert
er det jo netop også derfor at vi her på PI kan hjælpe hinanden med at tolke de forskellige signaler
og selvfølgelig være enige om at vi ikke kan være enige om, hvordan vil fortolker de forskellige input
for det er altså en meget kompliceret økonomisk situaion og situation på aktiemarkedet vi står over for
er det jo netop også derfor at vi her på PI kan hjælpe hinanden med at tolke de forskellige signaler
og selvfølgelig være enige om at vi ikke kan være enige om, hvordan vil fortolker de forskellige input
for det er altså en meget kompliceret økonomisk situaion og situation på aktiemarkedet vi står over for
28/3 2009 16:33 le 06142 International Monetary Fund Managing Director Dominique Strauss-Kahn said on Friday the dollar is not under threat today but that it is "understandable" for China to raise questions about a new global reserve currency.
"It is understandable for the Chinese authorities to raise this question" on a new reserve currency, Strauss-Kahn told reporters via video-conference from Paris.
"I don't see that the role of the dollar is at threat today," he added. (Reporting by Mark Felsenthal, Editing by Chizu Nomiyama)
"It is understandable for the Chinese authorities to raise this question" on a new reserve currency, Strauss-Kahn told reporters via video-conference from Paris.
"I don't see that the role of the dollar is at threat today," he added. (Reporting by Mark Felsenthal, Editing by Chizu Nomiyama)
Ja jeg er enig og jeg lytter faktisk meget efter 
28/3 2009 18:17 le 06152 China challenges US global financial leadership
China speaks up, challenging US domination of global financial rules
Elaine Kurtenbach, AP Business Writer
Saturday March 28, 2009, 10:16 am EDT
Buzz up! Print SHANGHAI (AP) -- The only major economy still growing at a fast clip, China is being unusually forthright in challenging the U.S.-led global order ahead of an April 2 summit on the financial crisis.
In his second rebuke of U.S. leadership this past week, the central bank governor, Zhou Xiaochuan, said China's rapid response to the downturn -- including a 4 trillion yuan ($586 billion) stimulus package -- proved the superiority of its authoritarian, one-party political system.
"Facts speak volumes, and demonstrate that compared with other major economies, the Chinese government has taken prompt, decisive and effective policy measures, demonstrating its superior system advantage when it comes to making vital policy decisions," Zhou said in remarks posted on the People's Bank of China's Web site.
In the approach to the London summit of 20 leading economies, Zhou called on foreign governments to give their finance ministers and central bankers broad authority so that they can "act boldly and expeditiously without having to go through a lengthy or even painful approval process."
China has made its agenda clear: It wants a stable U.S. dollar, and has even advocated the creation of another global currency altogether. It is leery of protectionism. And it is demanding a larger say in how financial systems are regulated and rescued, while holding back on any promises for new rescue or stimulus measures of its own.
"So far, China has been playing a game set up by other powers. Now China wants to be part of the agenda or rules-setting," said Ding Xueliang, a China expert at Hong Kong's University of Science and Technology.
Whether Beijing has a workable alternative vision for the future of world finance remains to be seen.
But China's growing assertiveness also suggests a sharpening urgency over its vulnerability to the global financial meltdown.
Fearful of any moves that might weaken the dollar and imperil China's estimated $1 trillion in Treasuries and other U.S. government debt, Chinese Premier Wen Jiabao has urged the United States to remain "a credible nation." In other words, Beijing wants Washington to avoid spurring inflation with excessive government spending on bailouts and stimulus packages.
To keep the value of its own currency steady -- some say undervalued -- the Chinese government must recycle its huge trade surpluses. The biggest, most liquid option is U.S. Treasuries. But a weakening dollar saps the value of those investments.
The Chinese "are being hurt more than anyone else by the mismanagement of the dollar," said William Overholt, an expert with Harvard University's Kennedy School of Government.
Underscoring that grievance, earlier this week Zhou, the central bank governor, called for a new global currency to end the dollar's dominance in trade, foreign reserves and commodity pricing.
Echoing proposals that have been debated for years, he urged the International Monetary Fund to create a "reserve currency" based on shares in the organization held by its 185 member nations, known as special drawing rights, or SDRs.
Such a move would "achieve the objective of safeguarding global economic and financial stability," Zhou said in an essay released by the central bank both in English and Chinese.
Given the wariness of most governments toward relinquishing any sovereign control over their currencies, few even in China view Zhou's proposal as likely to catch on anytime soon.
"Nobody believes the current global monetary system will be changed soon. It's more like a warning or signal to America to let them know how important it is to keep the dollar stable," said Ding Xinghao, president of the Shanghai Association of American Studies, a private academic think-tank.
China's stolid and somber president, Hu Jintao, will likely focus on cooperation rather than table pounding when he meets President Barack Obama for the first time at next week's London summit on the financial crisis.
"There is no strong consensus between the U.S. and Europe. They have different policy priorities. The EU is quite weak. There are too many states with different opinions and different policy priorities," said Zheng Yongnian, director of the East Asia Institute at the National University of Singapore. "So it would be easier for the U.S. and China to work together, despite their huge differences."
Still, China is committed to leading a push by the developing world for a greater say in how global finance is regulated and managed.
G-20 members already have agreed that developing countries need a bigger voice in the IMF. But under a system devised 63 years ago, each country's vote is tied to its financial commitments to the institution, which are determined by economic size, currency reserves and openness to trade and capital flows.
Wang Qishan, a top Chinese financial official and vice premier, said Friday in a commentary in The Times of London that Beijing was ready to contribute more, but wants changes in the IMF's governance structure.
"China is ready to play an active part in exploring ways to raise resources and will contribute to this effort within its ability," Wang wrote.
But he reiterated China's rejection of calls for it to provide part of its $2 trillion in foreign reserves to an IMF bailout fund.
China's leaders have problems at home that they need to spend on, and they insist that their country's greatest contribution to a global recovery is keeping its own house in order and following through on its stimulus package.
Wen said fresh stimulus measures were possible, but only if necessary.
"They've barely spent half of the money. Why should they be spending more now?" said Jing Ulrich, chairwoman for China equities at J.P. Morgan. "They are pacing themselves."
Despite its massive foreign reserves and an economy that many analysts believe is on the brink of recovery, China's leaders face stunning challenges in finding ways to create jobs for millions of migrant workers left newly unemployed. Social welfare and health systems are inadequate and its environment wrecked by decades of rampant industrialization.
"On the top, national level, yes, China has lots of money," says Ding Xueliang, a former Communist Party official. "But if you look at the troubles, all the economic and social challenges the leadership faces, China may hold so much money but it's not enough. It's not enough," he said.
Still, he says, China's leaders do recognize the need to make a bigger contribution if they want a larger say in reshaping the world financial order.
"More and more of the leadership see there is an opportunity for China," Ding said. "I don't expect a big contribution is possible in the short-term, but a gradual increase in support is possible."
China speaks up, challenging US domination of global financial rules
Elaine Kurtenbach, AP Business Writer
Saturday March 28, 2009, 10:16 am EDT
Buzz up! Print SHANGHAI (AP) -- The only major economy still growing at a fast clip, China is being unusually forthright in challenging the U.S.-led global order ahead of an April 2 summit on the financial crisis.
In his second rebuke of U.S. leadership this past week, the central bank governor, Zhou Xiaochuan, said China's rapid response to the downturn -- including a 4 trillion yuan ($586 billion) stimulus package -- proved the superiority of its authoritarian, one-party political system.
"Facts speak volumes, and demonstrate that compared with other major economies, the Chinese government has taken prompt, decisive and effective policy measures, demonstrating its superior system advantage when it comes to making vital policy decisions," Zhou said in remarks posted on the People's Bank of China's Web site.
In the approach to the London summit of 20 leading economies, Zhou called on foreign governments to give their finance ministers and central bankers broad authority so that they can "act boldly and expeditiously without having to go through a lengthy or even painful approval process."
China has made its agenda clear: It wants a stable U.S. dollar, and has even advocated the creation of another global currency altogether. It is leery of protectionism. And it is demanding a larger say in how financial systems are regulated and rescued, while holding back on any promises for new rescue or stimulus measures of its own.
"So far, China has been playing a game set up by other powers. Now China wants to be part of the agenda or rules-setting," said Ding Xueliang, a China expert at Hong Kong's University of Science and Technology.
Whether Beijing has a workable alternative vision for the future of world finance remains to be seen.
But China's growing assertiveness also suggests a sharpening urgency over its vulnerability to the global financial meltdown.
Fearful of any moves that might weaken the dollar and imperil China's estimated $1 trillion in Treasuries and other U.S. government debt, Chinese Premier Wen Jiabao has urged the United States to remain "a credible nation." In other words, Beijing wants Washington to avoid spurring inflation with excessive government spending on bailouts and stimulus packages.
To keep the value of its own currency steady -- some say undervalued -- the Chinese government must recycle its huge trade surpluses. The biggest, most liquid option is U.S. Treasuries. But a weakening dollar saps the value of those investments.
The Chinese "are being hurt more than anyone else by the mismanagement of the dollar," said William Overholt, an expert with Harvard University's Kennedy School of Government.
Underscoring that grievance, earlier this week Zhou, the central bank governor, called for a new global currency to end the dollar's dominance in trade, foreign reserves and commodity pricing.
Echoing proposals that have been debated for years, he urged the International Monetary Fund to create a "reserve currency" based on shares in the organization held by its 185 member nations, known as special drawing rights, or SDRs.
Such a move would "achieve the objective of safeguarding global economic and financial stability," Zhou said in an essay released by the central bank both in English and Chinese.
Given the wariness of most governments toward relinquishing any sovereign control over their currencies, few even in China view Zhou's proposal as likely to catch on anytime soon.
"Nobody believes the current global monetary system will be changed soon. It's more like a warning or signal to America to let them know how important it is to keep the dollar stable," said Ding Xinghao, president of the Shanghai Association of American Studies, a private academic think-tank.
China's stolid and somber president, Hu Jintao, will likely focus on cooperation rather than table pounding when he meets President Barack Obama for the first time at next week's London summit on the financial crisis.
"There is no strong consensus between the U.S. and Europe. They have different policy priorities. The EU is quite weak. There are too many states with different opinions and different policy priorities," said Zheng Yongnian, director of the East Asia Institute at the National University of Singapore. "So it would be easier for the U.S. and China to work together, despite their huge differences."
Still, China is committed to leading a push by the developing world for a greater say in how global finance is regulated and managed.
G-20 members already have agreed that developing countries need a bigger voice in the IMF. But under a system devised 63 years ago, each country's vote is tied to its financial commitments to the institution, which are determined by economic size, currency reserves and openness to trade and capital flows.
Wang Qishan, a top Chinese financial official and vice premier, said Friday in a commentary in The Times of London that Beijing was ready to contribute more, but wants changes in the IMF's governance structure.
"China is ready to play an active part in exploring ways to raise resources and will contribute to this effort within its ability," Wang wrote.
But he reiterated China's rejection of calls for it to provide part of its $2 trillion in foreign reserves to an IMF bailout fund.
China's leaders have problems at home that they need to spend on, and they insist that their country's greatest contribution to a global recovery is keeping its own house in order and following through on its stimulus package.
Wen said fresh stimulus measures were possible, but only if necessary.
"They've barely spent half of the money. Why should they be spending more now?" said Jing Ulrich, chairwoman for China equities at J.P. Morgan. "They are pacing themselves."
Despite its massive foreign reserves and an economy that many analysts believe is on the brink of recovery, China's leaders face stunning challenges in finding ways to create jobs for millions of migrant workers left newly unemployed. Social welfare and health systems are inadequate and its environment wrecked by decades of rampant industrialization.
"On the top, national level, yes, China has lots of money," says Ding Xueliang, a former Communist Party official. "But if you look at the troubles, all the economic and social challenges the leadership faces, China may hold so much money but it's not enough. It's not enough," he said.
Still, he says, China's leaders do recognize the need to make a bigger contribution if they want a larger say in reshaping the world financial order.
"More and more of the leadership see there is an opportunity for China," Ding said. "I don't expect a big contribution is possible in the short-term, but a gradual increase in support is possible."
29/3 2009 03:32 fido 06172 Den næste uge bliver uden tvivl særdeles turbulent på valutamarkederne primært med fokus på den amerikanske dollar og den seneste tids spekulationer om hvorvidt dollarens tid som universel valuta reserve og safe haven nærmer sig en afslutning.
De helt store gysere bliver signalerne der udsendes fra G20 mødet på torsdag samt Nonfarm Payrolls fra USA på fredag.
Læs selv mere her:
http://www.dailyfx.com/story/currency/eur_fundamentals/Dollar_Trend_May_Be_Redefined_1238214931106.html
Forøvrigt er Dailyfx.com et must for alle valutainteresserede.
De helt store gysere bliver signalerne der udsendes fra G20 mødet på torsdag samt Nonfarm Payrolls fra USA på fredag.
Læs selv mere her:
http://www.dailyfx.com/story/currency/eur_fundamentals/Dollar_Trend_May_Be_Redefined_1238214931106.html
Forøvrigt er Dailyfx.com et must for alle valutainteresserede.
