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Amerikansk housing recovery

61488 akademikeren 15/10 2012 08:33

Jeg mener vi er tæt på et begyndende recovery i US. Og kun i US. Det researcher lidt over p.t. og er i den forbindelse faldet over denne rapport fra Blackrock jeg vil dele med jer.

Everyone is optimistic in the spring-not just baseball fans. This year, the phenomenon even has percolated parts of the abysmal US housing market. Various indicators are teasing investors and homeowners that real estate prices may finally have scraped bottom.
If this is true, it has been a long and traumatic journey. With millions of homeowners losing their homes to foreclosure, the Great recession crushed the bedrock of the American Dream: (profitable) homeownership. At least $7 trillion in home equity has been lost, the US Federal Reserve estimated in January.
Even after these declines, homes remain the largest and most important asset of most Americans. Housing dominates sentiment and behavior of the consumers who power 70% of the world's largest economy. It is a key reason why the US Federal Reserve is keeping rates at record lows and has loaded up on mortgage assets, leading a global wave of central bank quantitative easing. And housing weighs down the US national balance sheet like an undigested meal.
We explore when, how and why this critical market will recover; offer a roadmap for housing policy; and assess investment opportunities. Our main conclusions are:
} Supply economics: Getting a handle on the inventory of vacant houses-supply that will hit the market-is crucial for any long-term projection. We present a model to determine this supply-demand equilibrium. The model projects it will take
at least three years-but more likely six to seven years-to reach a new equilibrium. It also shows the importance of new household formation and the overall homeownership rate.
} Sighting a Housing Bottom: We believe we are at or near the housing market bottom after national housing prices slid 36% from their peaks. We see little additional downside beyond declines of up to 5% over the next year or so after factoring
in inflation. We do not expect a quick rebound to the heady levels of the early 2000s. The recovery will likely take the form of a long, flat "U." It may even resemble the stagnating shape of a drawn-out "L" for a while, we believe.
} Regional Differences: Analysis of and sentiment toward the housing market are largely fed by national data. Yet most investment opportunities are local. There are huge disparities between and within metropolitan areas-in price levels,
inventories and foreclosures. Local employment and land scarcity also make a big difference. Real estate truly is about location.
Policy Uncertainties: Housing policy and the mortgage market are joined at the hip. Uncertainty over future policy is vexing homeowners, potential buyers, lenders and especially investors. A key question is the future of government-sponsored enterprises (GSEs) Freddie Mac and Fannie Mae, entities that currently underpin the mortgage financing market. We believe a full privatization is not advisable-nor feasible-at this time, but agree the mortgage market's over-reliance on public support needs to be reduced in the long run.
a Housing Policy Recipe: A holistic approach is needed to put the housing market back on solid footing. Ingredients include the need for the government to guarantee mortgages (a service for which it should be compensated); reshaping the GSEs as market intermediaries for credit support; transparent and simple rules for mortgage servicing, securitization and foreclosures; prioritizing and synthesizing public policy;
and respecting investor rights to attract private capital.
an embarrassment of (Program) Riches: The multitude, complexity and scattershot approach of housing initiatives and regulations make it tough to see the forest through the trees. We highlight four programs that could potentially help distressed homeowners and reduce foreclosures. We support their objectives-except where they encroach on the rights of first-lien holders.
People Matter: Demographic trends are posing a profound challenge to the housing market. A tidal wave of baby boomers is expected to retire and downsize in the next decade, adding to an already graying population. People are marrying later (or not at all) and college graduates are groaning under student debt and unemployment, depriving the market of its traditional source of demand from first-time homebuyers.
other Housing challenges: The wobbly state of the highly indebted, lucky-to-be-employed and underpaid US consumer is a big impediment to a sustained housing market recovery. Tough lending standards are another hurdle. The "fiscal cliff" of deficit reduction and the expiration of tax cuts looms large- one more reason for the question mark in our publication's title.

15/10 2012 18:39 JAFFASIMON 061506

Jeg er helt enig i din betragtning omkring det amerikanske boligmarked. Som BlacRock skriver i deres notat, så peger indikatorne hvertfald på at property cyclen er ved at vende.

Jeg læste også en artikel på et tidspunkti FT, hvor Bo Knudsen fra Carnegie A.M. nævnte det amerikanske boligmarked som en mulighed. Han nævnte virksomheder som Wells Fargo, Home Depot, Sherwin Williams der kunne profitere på en bedring.

Hvor hurtig der kan blive sparket gang i boligmarkedet, er jeg dog i tvivl om.Der kan vel sagtens gå 5 år før det er normaliseret?

15/10 2012 18:50 akademikeren 061507

Mit play er BAC dels på grund af størrelsen, dels pga. Overtagelsen af countrywide. De kommer iøvrigt med regnskab torsdag hvor jeg vil følge op på det.

Der er en demografisk vinkel som taler imod stigende huspriser, men måske den stigende levealder og "raskhedsgraden" modvirker denne.

Der er også en spekulation om mere bankkonsolidering, men der skal man fange banker der trader under bookvalue og BAC er jo en der spiser og dermed giver præmien. Men mon ikke de skal fordøje alt deres creditcrunch opkøb. Merril lynch og countrywide.

16/10 2012 13:46 akademikeren 061528

15/10 2012 20:05 akademikeren 061509

Her er nogle af de andre indikationer på bedre housing forhold fra BAC seneste præsentation.


26/10 2012 17:00 JAFFASIMON 061662

Faldt lige over denne artikel på seekingalpha omkring Reit's. Det kunne også være en mulighed, hvis vendingen er på vej.