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DANMARKS STØRSTE INVESTORSITE MED DEBAT, CHAT OG NYHEDER

Bank of Ireland mandag


64239 XJK 28/2 2013 22:23
Oversigt

Mandag den 4. marts aflægger Bank of Ireland årsregnskab for 2012, og set i lyset af den senere tids forlydende om bedring i den irske økonomi kunne det godt blive et interessant regnskab - og måske også et fingerpeg om, hvordan Danske Banks irske eventyr har det.

Overskrifterne for BoIs regnskab på mandag er:

- Reduktion af lånebogen bl.a. ved frasalg af låneportefølje til f.eks. PensionDanmark og overførsel til NAMA (irsk skraldespand)
- Forøgelse af indlån bl.a. gennem samarbejde med UK Post Office
- Reduktion af behovet for funding
- Stram styring af omkostninger
- Kvaliteten af låneporteføljen - restrukturerering af boliglån
- Udløb af Eligible Liabilities Guarantee Scheme (ELG) ved udgangen af marts

Og sikkert meget andet - nu er jeg jo ikke bankmand men blot en glad amatør :o)

Regnskabet kommer her:
http://www.bankofireland.com/about-boi-group/investor-relations/financial-information/year-end-results-2012/

Præsentation fra Bank of Ireland, januar 2013:
http://www.bankofireland.com/fs/doc/wysiwyg/boi-storyboard-22jan2013.pdf

Overblik over den irske økonomi november 2012
http://www.bankofireland.com/fs/doc/wysiwyg/irish-economy-overview-nov2012.pdf

Om Bank of Ireland
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bank_of_Ireland

Irsk økonomi i bedring
http://borsen.dk/nyheder/oekonomi/artikel/1/251494/irland_faar_afgoerende_haandsraekning_fra_ecb.html
http://borsen.dk/nyheder/generelt/artikel/1/252986/krisen_ser_ud_til_at_vende_i_irland.html
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2013-02-28/dublin-home-prices-rise-on-year-for-first-time-since-2007.html
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2013-02-27/irish-payrolls-rise-for-first-time-since-2008-on-recovery-1-.html

Ophør af ELG:
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2013-02-26/ireland-said-to-decide-to-lift-bank-guarantee-by-end-march-1-.html



12/3 2013 21:06 XJK 164365



Mere læsning om irske banker:

A Preliminary Report on The Sources of Ireland's Banking Crisis (fra 2009):
http://www.bankinginquiry.gov.ie/Preliminary%20Report%20into%20Ireland's%20Banking%20Crisis%2031%20May%202010.pdf

Om likvideringen af Anglo Irish Bank og konvertering af promissory notes til langfristet gæld fra 7. feb. 2013:
http://dealbook.nytimes.com/2013/02/07/ireland-to-liquidate-anglo-irish-bank/
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-21361339
http://news.sky.com/story/1048826/ireland-secures-debt-deal-on-anglo-irish



13/3 2013 20:03 XJK 164387



Irland har idag solgt for 5 mia EUR national gæld med 10-årig løbetid til en rente på omkring 4,15%. Det lyser i det irske.

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2013-03-13/irish-lay-bailout-exit-base-with-6-5-billion-bond-sale.html

På LSE er Bank of Ireland (BKIR.LSE) kommet fri af toppen fra februar 2012, og har dermed formet den fineste dobbeltbund.



13/3 2013 21:37 akademikeren 064388



Ja og det kan få en positiv indvirkning på især danske bank også.



13/3 2013 21:45 XJK 064389



Edit: lysner ikke lyser.



13/3 2013 22:38 XJK 164396



De irske forbrugere hænger stadig noget med skuffen. Her er seneste Consumer Sentiment Index fra februar:

http://www.esri.ie/irish_economy/consumer_sentiment/latest_consumer_sentiment/CSI_PR_Feb_13.pdf

Kommentarer til februartallene:
http://www.esri.ie/irish_economy/consumer_sentiment/latest_consumer_sentiment/?

Og indexets udvikling helt tilbage fra 1996:
http://www.esri.ie/irish_economy/consumer_sentiment/latest_consumer_sentiment/CSI_IndicesFebruary13.pdf

Det bliver interessant at se, om de seneste positive makro-nyheder får irerne til at se lysere på fremtiden i de kommende måneder, eller om de irske forbrugere stadig er så meget under pres, at der ingen stigning finder sted.


Der var også en nyhed vedr. boligfinanserne i Irland idag:

"Irish central bank figures published last week showed that 94,488 principal residential mortgages, or almost 12% of all such loans by number in the Irish republic, were in arrears for more than 90 days at the end of December 2012.

A further 42,031, or 5.3% of home loans, were not in arrears, but had nonetheless been restructured, suggesting a very large number of borrowers had faced some sort of difficulty in meeting the original terms of their mortgage loan agreements. Separately, 28,421 residential buy-to-let properties, or about 19% of all such loans, were also in arrears at the end of December."

...

"The Irish central bank said it will force lenders, including Allied Irish Banks PLC, Bank of Ireland PLC and Permanent TSB, which received large amounts of Irish taxpayer aid, to review all their residential home loans. And it will impose sanctions on lenders in 2014 that continue to fail to strike deals on loans the central bank believes are "unsustainable"."

http://www.foxbusiness.com/news/2013/03/13/ireland-imposes-targets-on-banks-to-solve-home-loans-crisis/

Den sidste del er vist mest til brug for irsk indenrigspolitik - det er i hvert fald elastik i metermål.



13/3 2013 22:46 akademikeren 064397



Jeg har ellers været ret skeptisk overfor danske bank, men jeg prøver at finde en undskyldning for at investere i europæiske banker, men kan ikke finde ud af noget der rigtigt holder.

Har du selv nogle interessante positioner?

Og tak for godt indhold!



13/3 2013 23:42 XJK 064399



Nej, jeg mangler noget bank i porteføljen, men jeg har (som den opmærksomme læser nok har bemærket) et ret godt øje til Bank of Ireland med lang horisont (>5 år).

Dels pga. af de fremskridt Bank of Ireland gør i forhold til at gøre banken rentabel igen, dels pga. bedringen i den irske økonomi og fremtidsudsigterne for den irske økonomi (demografien siger 35% under 25 år, økomomien er i udpræget grad eksportorienteret).



14/3 2013 08:16 XJK 064403



Lidt om planlagte rentestigninger på Bank of Irelands UK mortgages fra 28. feb:

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-21615831



19/3 2013 20:05 XJK 064501



Interessant artikel vedr. den irske manøvre med konverteringen af promissory notes til langfristet gæld den 7. feb. 2013:

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2013-03-19/ireland-said-to-tap-secret-ecb-pact-for-anglo-irish-bond-swap.html



21/3 2013 22:48 XJK 064533



Nye tal for den irske økonomi for året 2012 fra An Phríomh-Oifig Staidrimh også kendt som Central Statistics Office:

Quarterly National Accounts:
http://www.cso.ie/en/media/csoie/releasespublications/documents/economy/2012/qna_q42012.pdf

Balance of International Payments:
http://www.cso.ie/en/media/csoie/releasespublications/documents/economy/2012/bop_q42012.pdf

For hele året 2012 lander den irske økonomi på:

GDP vækst på 0.9%
GNP vækst på 3.4% (!)

Den irske GNP afspejler et stort inflow, da mange firmaer har hovedkvarter i Irland grundet den lave selskabsskat.

"[...]The Value added of the Distribution, Transport, Software and Communications sector increased by 3.1 per cent in volume terms in 2012 compared to 2011 while the Other Services sector registered an increase of 0.2 per cent over the same period. Industry (including building and construction) also registered a small increase of 0.3 per cent in real terms in 2012 compared to 2011. Agriculture, Forestry and Fisheries declined by 10 per cent while Public administration and defence decreased by 4.2 per cent over this period." (fra ovenstående link - det øverste)



21/3 2013 23:20 XJK 064534



Eligible Liabilities Guarantee Scheme stopper om en uge (den. 28. marts 2013).

http://www.ntma.ie/business-areas/funding-and-debt-management/eligible-liabilities-guarantee-scheme/

Det burde blive et non-event.



28/3 2013 09:57 XJK 064601



Pilar III indberetning:

http://www.bankofireland.com/fs/doc/publications/investor-relations/boi-pillar-iii-disclosures-2012.pdf

Indeholder detaljeret gennemgang af Bank of Irelands kapitalgrundlag, risikoprofil og processer for analyse af risici.



28/3 2013 13:57 XJK 064604



Moody bekræfter Irlands junk-status (Ba1/NP negative outlook):

http://www.moodys.com/research/Moodys-affirms-Irelands-Ba1NP-ratings-and-negative-outlook--PR_268376

RATIONALE FOR MAINTAINING IRELAND'S NEGATIVE RATING OUTLOOK
The first driver underlying Moody's decision to maintain a negative outlook on Ireland's Ba1 sovereign rating is the country's susceptibility to euro-area-related event risk because of its very high debt levels and ongoing asset quality issues affecting its banking system. Such risks were most recently evidenced by the EU's unprecedented decision to fund Cyprus's financial rescue by imposing a levy on bank deposits above a certain size. The move has significantly heightened fears surrounding the safety of bank deposits in other European systems. More generally, Moody's believes that Ireland's vulnerability to wider euro-area stresses has been reaffirmed by Euro area policymakers' handling of the Cyprus crisis, the increased risk tolerance apparent in their actions, and the uncertain risk assessment prompted by a more uncompromising and less predictable approach to crisis management.

The second driver for maintaining Ireland's sovereign rating on negative outlook is the continued poor asset quality of Ireland's banking system, which represents a constraint on their willingness to provide new credit at such time when loan demand revives. In addition, Moody's notes that Irish banks have not yet begun implementing the Central Bank of Ireland's new requirement to repossess homes when mortgages have been non-performing for a lengthy period, nor to adequately provision for their non-performing portfolios. Moody's baseline case is that Irish banks' large capital cushions should be able to accommodate this process without additional liabilities accruing to the government's balance sheet.

RATIONALE FOR AFFIRMING IRELAND'S Ba1/NP RATINGS
The primary driver underpinning Moody's decision to affirm Ireland's Ba1/NP sovereign ratings is the government's successful implementation of the Troika's economic adjustment programme, which began in November 2010 and is coming to an end later this year. From the start, the Irish government has consistently met and in some respects exceeded the quarterly programme criteria, despite difficult domestic and external conditions. Moody's expects that Ireland's debt will likely peak at roughly 120% of GDP in 2013 and 2014, before starting to drop in 2015, thereby reversing the adverse debt trend of the recent past.

The second driver informing the rating affirmation is the steady progress that Ireland has made in gradually regaining market access at an affordable cost of financing. The Irish government has made several forays into the market since January 2012, first to swap shorter-term for longer-term debt to reduce early refinancing risks, and then to obtain new funds in successive medium-term bond issues. This progress, which most recently culminated in a well-received ten-year bond issue, has allowed Ireland to meet all of its financing needs for 2014. In addition, Moody's observes that refinancing risks will diminish further in subsequent years as a result of (1) the restructuring of the government's promissory note debt, which was incurred when the sovereign extended support to the Irish banking system in 2010, and (2) the agreement with the EU to extend bailout maturities.

The third driver for maintaining Ireland's sovereign rating is Moody's expectation that Ireland's economy will be able to grow at a moderate pace in the coming years, although the initial pace is likely to be below its long-term potential. Thanks to the dynamism and high Value added of the country's export sector, the relatively diversified export markets and the improved competitiveness that have been achieved via nominal wage adjustments, Moody's expects that growth in Ireland is likely to remain positive this year, even though the rating agency expects the Euro area economy as a whole to register a second consecutive contraction in 2013.



4/4 2013 17:12 XJK 064695






23/4 2013 20:25 XJK 065022



Kommissionens review af den irske økonomi. Som ikke overraskende ligger meget på linje med IMFs seneste review.

http://ec.europa.eu/economy_finance/publications/occasional_paper/2013/pdf/ocp131_en.pdf



7/4 2013 08:46 XJK 064744



Interessant undersøgelse af irernes brug af checks og cash. Der er basis for effektiviseringer og besparelser ved øget brug af elektroniske betalingsformer.

http://www.centralbank.ie/publications/Documents/The%20Usage,%20Cost%20and%20Pricing%20of%20Retail%20Payments%20in%20Ireland.pdf

"Effective, safe and efficient payment systems are important to facilitate real and financial transactions in advanced economies, though the choice of payment channel differs widely across Europe. Ireland has the second highest usage of cheques in Europe, the highest ATM withdrawal per capita and still pays out half of all social welfare payments in cash. Cheques are a very expensive form of payment, and much less efficient than debit cards. Ireland could save up to €1bn per year by migrating to more efficient payment instruments. One impediment to a faster migration is that the pricing of payments in Ireland is not commensurate with the cost of provision. Only 46% of the costs of providing cash and cheques services are recouped by banks, with significant crosssubsidisation at the expense of electronic payments. "



8/4 2013 18:53 XJK 064765



Nye tal for consumer confidence for marts måned. De irske forbrugere er fortsat i tænkeboks.

http://www.esri.ie/irish_economy/consumer_sentiment/latest_consumer_sentiment/CSIMar_13.pdf



19/4 2013 21:32 XJK 064990






24/4 2013 20:16 XJK 065029



Opdatering fra Bank of Ireland efter udløb af ELG programmet.

http://www.bankofireland.com/fs/doc/wysiwyg/bank-of-ireland-interim-management-statement-april-2013.pdf

De er i mål i forhold til Loan to Deposit ratio på 120%, og de har nået deres 'steady-state' lånevolumen på 90 mia EUR.

I forgårs ramte rente på den irske 10-års statsobligation 3,48%, hvilket er det laveste niveau siden 2006.

http://www.irishtimes.com/business/economy/ireland/irish-bond-yields-drop-to-pre-crash-levels-1.1369687

Alt i alt, er det svært at bevare pessimismen.



16/5 2013 06:41 XJK 065382



ESRI opjusterer vækstskønnet:

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2013-05-15/ireland-s-esri-raises-economic-growth-forecasts-on-investment.html

"Gross domestic product will rise 1.8 percent this year, the Dublin-based Economic Social & Research Institute said today, raising a January forecast of 1.3 percent. The economy may expand 2.7 percent in 2014, the ESRI said, lifting its 2.2 percent forecast."

Der er også kommet nye tal for Consumer Sentiment Index, og de irske forbrugere er stadig ikke glade:

http://www.esri.ie/irish_economy/consumer_sentiment/latest_consumer_sentiment/?

"The mood of Irish consumers was little changed in April. The marginal decline in the sentiment index is disappointing when compared to a slight improvement across the rest of the Euro area but it is not entirely surprising. The April survey period saw some downbeat reports on the Irish economy and a number of indicators that point towards a still hesitant recovery. At the same time, the mishandling of the bailout of Cyprus served as an unfortunate reminder of the continuing inability of European policymakers to chart a course out of the crisis. In these circumstances, it is scarcely surprising that Irish consumers remained wary."



27/6 2013 21:05 XJK 065812



Interessant artikel om situationen i Anglo Irish Bank, og især den manglende viden om situationen, da banken fik en hjælpende hånd fra den irske stat:

http://www.irishtimes.com/business/economy/ireland/why-did-almost-no-one-realise-that-anglo-irish-was-not-just-illiquid-but-insolvent-1.1442412



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