Vi har skrevet lidt om Glu i chatten, og der er også nogle stykker herinde der er gået ind i aktien, så tænkte det var på tide vi fik den ind i debatten også.
Glu Mobile laver free-to-play spil til mobile, og de er pt i gang med lidt af en turn around. Jeg har tidl været inde og ude af aktien, og fulgt den længe, men det der sidst i september fik mig til at gå ind var deres nyeste spil Deer Hunter 2014. Kort tid efter release befandt den sig i toppen af listerne over mest downloadede og indtjenende spil på de forskellige platforme, hvor den fortsat befinder sig. (Se appannie.com for placeringer)
Deer Hunter 2014 er deres første spil der er integreret i deres GaaS server platform de kalder GluOn. Med den enorme succes dette spil har fået må GluOn siges at have bestået sin første test, og de tre store spil planlagt i Q4 vil ligeledes være integreret i GluOn. Eternity Warriors 3 og Frontline Commando 2 er efterfølgere i nogle af deres mest succesfulde franchises, og med GluOn integration ser jeg chancerne for succes for gode. Motocross Meltdown er det 3. spil sat til Q4 og det har klaret sig meget godt i beta og ser ligeledes ud til at blive en succes.
Ser vi længere frem kommer Robocop sandsynligvis omkring release af filmen den 7. februar, og dette spil er netop udgivet i beta i Canada. Det 3. spil i det succesfulde Contract Killer franchise er sat til Q2-14, og Hercules kommer sandsynligvis i August sammen med filmpremieren.
Pt er det primært DH2014's enorme succes der har fået kursen til at eksplodere, og der er mange estimater derude på hvor meget den bringer i kassen, fra $200k til optimistiske $1mio om dagen. Det er meget svært at spå om, men jeg tror personligt det ligger omkring 250-300k. Hvis den kan holde fast i de gode placeringer resten af kvartalet, kan det altså betyde ca $27,5 mio fra dette spil alene, og Glu's guidance for hele forretningen i Q4 ligger omkring $29mio. Deraf forventninger om en justering af guidance ifm regnskabet i morgen.
Som noget forholdsvist nyt er de begyndt at indgå samarbejde med andre udviklere, hvor Glu står for at gøre udviklerens spil klar til det vestlige marked og udgiver det. Er ikke helt sikker på fordelingen, men har læst de deler 50/50. De har udgivet 2 af de 6 spil planlagt i år, men de har ikke klaret sig specielt godt. Planen er så vidt jeg ved at disse 3rd party apps på sigt også skal integreres i GluOn, så man kan håbe de får mere succes i den del af forretningen. Planen er at udgive 12 spil for andre udviklere næste år.
Q3 resultatet tror jeg ikke man skal forvente specielt meget af, og det kan godt skuffe til trods for at DH14 bidrog til omsætningen de sidste to uger af kvartalet. Til Q2 CC mener jeg de nævnte at marketing af deres spil i Q3 vil være reduceret, da det ville give mere værdi senere. De satser meget på deres GaaS platform, og i den sammenhæng giver det for mig god mening at de har ventet med at sætte den store marketing maskine i gang til GaaS (GluOn) var klar.
Her er en oversigt over kommende releases jeg har noteret:
Q4:
- Frontline Commando 2 (beta 7. okt)
- Eternity Warriors 3 (beta 26. sept)
- Motocross Meltdown (beta 13. sept)
Q4 (3rd party apps):
- Mech Battle Arena (beta: 17. sept)
- Legacy of Angels (beta 9. aug)
- Gun Zombie 2 (beta 25. okt)
- ?
2014:
- Robocop (Feb.) (beta 25. okt)
- Contract Killer 3 (Q2)
- Hercules (Aug)
Jeg har vedlagt min oversigt over indtægter fra deres forsk spil i tidl kvartaler, som kan give et overblik over hvor pengene kommer fra.
Dislaimer: Jeg har aktier i Glu og regner med at holde over regnskab. Glu har skuffet mange gange tidligere, og dette skal ikke ses som en anbefaling, blot et lille skriv om hvordan jeg ser Glu pt. Der er masser af gode SA artikler om selskabet så vil anbefale at kigge der, hvis man er interesseret i mere info, og Q2 CC er også værd at læse igennem:
http://seekingalpha.com/article/1611762-glu-mobiles-ceo-discusses-q2-2013-results-earnings-call-transcript?part=single
Glu Mobile laver free-to-play spil til mobile, og de er pt i gang med lidt af en turn around. Jeg har tidl været inde og ude af aktien, og fulgt den længe, men det der sidst i september fik mig til at gå ind var deres nyeste spil Deer Hunter 2014. Kort tid efter release befandt den sig i toppen af listerne over mest downloadede og indtjenende spil på de forskellige platforme, hvor den fortsat befinder sig. (Se appannie.com for placeringer)
Deer Hunter 2014 er deres første spil der er integreret i deres GaaS server platform de kalder GluOn. Med den enorme succes dette spil har fået må GluOn siges at have bestået sin første test, og de tre store spil planlagt i Q4 vil ligeledes være integreret i GluOn. Eternity Warriors 3 og Frontline Commando 2 er efterfølgere i nogle af deres mest succesfulde franchises, og med GluOn integration ser jeg chancerne for succes for gode. Motocross Meltdown er det 3. spil sat til Q4 og det har klaret sig meget godt i beta og ser ligeledes ud til at blive en succes.
Ser vi længere frem kommer Robocop sandsynligvis omkring release af filmen den 7. februar, og dette spil er netop udgivet i beta i Canada. Det 3. spil i det succesfulde Contract Killer franchise er sat til Q2-14, og Hercules kommer sandsynligvis i August sammen med filmpremieren.
Pt er det primært DH2014's enorme succes der har fået kursen til at eksplodere, og der er mange estimater derude på hvor meget den bringer i kassen, fra $200k til optimistiske $1mio om dagen. Det er meget svært at spå om, men jeg tror personligt det ligger omkring 250-300k. Hvis den kan holde fast i de gode placeringer resten af kvartalet, kan det altså betyde ca $27,5 mio fra dette spil alene, og Glu's guidance for hele forretningen i Q4 ligger omkring $29mio. Deraf forventninger om en justering af guidance ifm regnskabet i morgen.
Som noget forholdsvist nyt er de begyndt at indgå samarbejde med andre udviklere, hvor Glu står for at gøre udviklerens spil klar til det vestlige marked og udgiver det. Er ikke helt sikker på fordelingen, men har læst de deler 50/50. De har udgivet 2 af de 6 spil planlagt i år, men de har ikke klaret sig specielt godt. Planen er så vidt jeg ved at disse 3rd party apps på sigt også skal integreres i GluOn, så man kan håbe de får mere succes i den del af forretningen. Planen er at udgive 12 spil for andre udviklere næste år.
Q3 resultatet tror jeg ikke man skal forvente specielt meget af, og det kan godt skuffe til trods for at DH14 bidrog til omsætningen de sidste to uger af kvartalet. Til Q2 CC mener jeg de nævnte at marketing af deres spil i Q3 vil være reduceret, da det ville give mere værdi senere. De satser meget på deres GaaS platform, og i den sammenhæng giver det for mig god mening at de har ventet med at sætte den store marketing maskine i gang til GaaS (GluOn) var klar.
Her er en oversigt over kommende releases jeg har noteret:
Q4:
- Frontline Commando 2 (beta 7. okt)
- Eternity Warriors 3 (beta 26. sept)
- Motocross Meltdown (beta 13. sept)
Q4 (3rd party apps):
- Mech Battle Arena (beta: 17. sept)
- Legacy of Angels (beta 9. aug)
- Gun Zombie 2 (beta 25. okt)
- ?
2014:
- Robocop (Feb.) (beta 25. okt)
- Contract Killer 3 (Q2)
- Hercules (Aug)
Jeg har vedlagt min oversigt over indtægter fra deres forsk spil i tidl kvartaler, som kan give et overblik over hvor pengene kommer fra.
Dislaimer: Jeg har aktier i Glu og regner med at holde over regnskab. Glu har skuffet mange gange tidligere, og dette skal ikke ses som en anbefaling, blot et lille skriv om hvordan jeg ser Glu pt. Der er masser af gode SA artikler om selskabet så vil anbefale at kigge der, hvis man er interesseret i mere info, og Q2 CC er også værd at læse igennem:
http://seekingalpha.com/article/1611762-glu-mobiles-ceo-discusses-q2-2013-results-earnings-call-transcript?part=single
30/10 2013 08:22 BiopOrBust 1
66813 Som en af dem der også er hoppet på Glu vil jeg da også forsøge at bidrage lidt til debatten, omend på et noget lavere niveau en Aspekulant.
Jeg faldt over nedenstående der giver et i mine øjne meget godt bud på hvad det er der driver Glu op - for godt nok er Deer Hunter en succes, men hvis det bare var på baggrund af et enkelt spil kunne jeg jo godt frygte at reaktionen var lige i overkanten.
If you assumed that the recent rise in Glu Mobile's (GLUU) share price and the flurry of analysts' upgrades stems from the successful release of Deer Hunter 2014, you are most likely focusing on an event and not the larger story that is unfolding inside Glu Mobile. Events come and go. Game downloads rise and fall. Stock prices pop and drop; but tangible, sustainable, growing revenue streams flow from a company's infrastructure and the business model implemented by management.
Understanding Causation
Success comes by design, not by chance. If we can identify and understand the cause of success, there is a strong likelihood we can duplicate its effect(s) over and over.
In the case of Glu Mobile's positive momentum, the cause is not the release of Deer Hunter 2014, although it plays an invaluable role, but the key elements of management's monetization strategy. The game is the vehicle through which success is manifested. It is not the cause of success, but only the outward visible effect of the underlying strategy. The real success is in Glu's new monetization strategy, games-as-a-service, aka "GluOn." CEO Niccolo De Masi explains:
Glu's solid execution and application of the company's recently developed games-as-a-service and monetization strategies are key drivers of Deer Hunter 2014's success.
In a previous article, Glue Mobile: The Story Behind The Vision, I explained in detail the "four pillars for success." It is the successful execution of these four pillars, "GluOn," that are the "key drivers" responsible for today's success. This success is the result of close to a year's research and development of "GluOn," and I am not surprised by flurry of recent upgrades because they were expected.
Understanding The Effects
The record breaking release of Deer Hunter 2014 has many thinking that Glu has achieved another hit game. But when you understand the "cause" and "effects," you will conclude that it's not just a winning game investors are celebrating, but a winning, lucrative, monetization strategy that is driving these new revenues and record breaking stats. Here are the recent effects of "GluOn's" winning strategy for Deer Hunter 2014 (source):
Over 5 million downloads in first 7 days of global release
Over 1 million global downloads in a single day from a single Glu title
Reached #7 U.S. App Store Top Grossing chart position for iPhoneSingle-day Glu record of gameplay sessions (18M+)
Single-day record for global revenues from a single Glu title
#1 Top Free App ranking in 19 countries
#1 Top Free Game ranking in 78 countries
De Masi's following comments help investors understand the difference between an event and a sustainable pattern of success:
We believe we are just scratching the surface of the organization's performance potential and look forward to launching a strong portfolio of titles in Q4 and beyond.
The chart below is from July 2013 and indicates a "Target Sell" of $4.50 with a "Second Breakout or Sell" at $5.60 sometime around January 2014. However, Glu's recent success may prove these estimates too conservative. Therefore, I am raising my "target sell" to $5.50 in January 2014.
Financials
During Glu's Q2 conference call, Glu's CFO, Eric Ludwig, noted that he expected Glu to finish Q3 with about $11.5 million in cash. But since then the company has added $14 million cash from the sale of common stock. This will give Glu all the flexibility needed to complete the "GluOn" transition.
Now that Glu's shares are trading north of $3.00, investors can anticipate an additional $10 million cash from the MGM Interactive Warrants deal that I told you about in a July article on Glu Mobile and MGM Interactive.
On Wednesday, October 30, 2013, Glu Mobile will release their Q3 financials and host the Q3 conference call at 4:30 EST. Anyone with a truly analytical mind has to be thinking that the recent flurry of "BUY" ratings, just ahead of Glu's Q3 financial release and conference call, is a very positive indication of good things to come. There are just too many upgrades to ignore or believe otherwise.
Glu Mobile is a leading global developer and publisher of free-to-play games for smartphone and tablet devices.
http://seekingalpha.com/article/1777742-whats-driving-glu-mobiles-upgrades?source=feed
Der er for øvrigt en der stiller et udmærket spørgsmål i kommentarerne under indlægget:
So the business model is much much superior to previous with Glu-On. But technically you have a sell at the 52wk high or thereabouts. If truly better, would we not expect a breakout of the 52wk high. Question is how much? Lets see if GLU can duplicate and truly have a working model. If so, as the premise goes, then this stock is worth way more than $5.50.
Det mener jeg jo han kan have en udmærket point i, men lad os nu se hvad der sker i aften når der bliver aflagt Q3 regnskab - festen fortsætter, eller om vi er nogen stykker der vågner til, en dag med oprydning efter festen...
Jeg faldt over nedenstående der giver et i mine øjne meget godt bud på hvad det er der driver Glu op - for godt nok er Deer Hunter en succes, men hvis det bare var på baggrund af et enkelt spil kunne jeg jo godt frygte at reaktionen var lige i overkanten.
If you assumed that the recent rise in Glu Mobile's (GLUU) share price and the flurry of analysts' upgrades stems from the successful release of Deer Hunter 2014, you are most likely focusing on an event and not the larger story that is unfolding inside Glu Mobile. Events come and go. Game downloads rise and fall. Stock prices pop and drop; but tangible, sustainable, growing revenue streams flow from a company's infrastructure and the business model implemented by management.
Understanding Causation
Success comes by design, not by chance. If we can identify and understand the cause of success, there is a strong likelihood we can duplicate its effect(s) over and over.
In the case of Glu Mobile's positive momentum, the cause is not the release of Deer Hunter 2014, although it plays an invaluable role, but the key elements of management's monetization strategy. The game is the vehicle through which success is manifested. It is not the cause of success, but only the outward visible effect of the underlying strategy. The real success is in Glu's new monetization strategy, games-as-a-service, aka "GluOn." CEO Niccolo De Masi explains:
Glu's solid execution and application of the company's recently developed games-as-a-service and monetization strategies are key drivers of Deer Hunter 2014's success.
In a previous article, Glue Mobile: The Story Behind The Vision, I explained in detail the "four pillars for success." It is the successful execution of these four pillars, "GluOn," that are the "key drivers" responsible for today's success. This success is the result of close to a year's research and development of "GluOn," and I am not surprised by flurry of recent upgrades because they were expected.
Understanding The Effects
The record breaking release of Deer Hunter 2014 has many thinking that Glu has achieved another hit game. But when you understand the "cause" and "effects," you will conclude that it's not just a winning game investors are celebrating, but a winning, lucrative, monetization strategy that is driving these new revenues and record breaking stats. Here are the recent effects of "GluOn's" winning strategy for Deer Hunter 2014 (source):
Over 5 million downloads in first 7 days of global release
Over 1 million global downloads in a single day from a single Glu title
Reached #7 U.S. App Store Top Grossing chart position for iPhoneSingle-day Glu record of gameplay sessions (18M+)
Single-day record for global revenues from a single Glu title
#1 Top Free App ranking in 19 countries
#1 Top Free Game ranking in 78 countries
De Masi's following comments help investors understand the difference between an event and a sustainable pattern of success:
We believe we are just scratching the surface of the organization's performance potential and look forward to launching a strong portfolio of titles in Q4 and beyond.
The chart below is from July 2013 and indicates a "Target Sell" of $4.50 with a "Second Breakout or Sell" at $5.60 sometime around January 2014. However, Glu's recent success may prove these estimates too conservative. Therefore, I am raising my "target sell" to $5.50 in January 2014.
Financials
During Glu's Q2 conference call, Glu's CFO, Eric Ludwig, noted that he expected Glu to finish Q3 with about $11.5 million in cash. But since then the company has added $14 million cash from the sale of common stock. This will give Glu all the flexibility needed to complete the "GluOn" transition.
Now that Glu's shares are trading north of $3.00, investors can anticipate an additional $10 million cash from the MGM Interactive Warrants deal that I told you about in a July article on Glu Mobile and MGM Interactive.
On Wednesday, October 30, 2013, Glu Mobile will release their Q3 financials and host the Q3 conference call at 4:30 EST. Anyone with a truly analytical mind has to be thinking that the recent flurry of "BUY" ratings, just ahead of Glu's Q3 financial release and conference call, is a very positive indication of good things to come. There are just too many upgrades to ignore or believe otherwise.
Glu Mobile is a leading global developer and publisher of free-to-play games for smartphone and tablet devices.
http://seekingalpha.com/article/1777742-whats-driving-glu-mobiles-upgrades?source=feed
Der er for øvrigt en der stiller et udmærket spørgsmål i kommentarerne under indlægget:
So the business model is much much superior to previous with Glu-On. But technically you have a sell at the 52wk high or thereabouts. If truly better, would we not expect a breakout of the 52wk high. Question is how much? Lets see if GLU can duplicate and truly have a working model. If so, as the premise goes, then this stock is worth way more than $5.50.
Det mener jeg jo han kan have en udmærket point i, men lad os nu se hvad der sker i aften når der bliver aflagt Q3 regnskab - festen fortsætter, eller om vi er nogen stykker der vågner til, en dag med oprydning efter festen...
