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DANMARKS STØRSTE INVESTORSITE MED DEBAT, CHAT OG NYHEDER
      

konjunkturen


7107 le 5/4 2009 11:52
Oversigt

konjunkturen

1. produktionen har nået en dyb bund i 09 1q pga nedskæringerne i bilproduktionen i stort set alle steder i verden oveni den lidt mere længevarende nedgang vi har haft i boligbyggeriet, der allerede startede i usa i januar 2007 målt på housing starts og kom til europa lidt senere

2. bilsalget faldt allerede for alvor i det meste af verden i begyndelsen af 08 4q og produktionsnedskæringerne kom så forsinket med en lageropbygning til følge, der først er vendt for alvor til en lagerreduktion her i slutningen af 09 1q pga sæsonopgangen i salget, virkningerne af skrotpræmier mm i bl.a. tyskland, frankrig og stimulanser af bilsalget i kina og indien

3. nedgangen i produktionen har fået investeringerne til at kollapse i stort set alle infrastruktur og kapitalgode sektorer, med et stort fald i ordreindgangen, men med en stor ordrebog fra boomet, der gør at disse virksomheder stadig kan levere fra tidligere ordrer, men til gengæld vil opleve fortsat nedgang de næste 2-3 år uden udsigt til opgang med både lav ordreindgang og cancellering af tidligere ordrer, men med lavere omkostninger til materialer og lønninger så de stadig kan tjene penge på de ordrer de har tilbage

4. råvarepriserne incl. stål og skibsfartrater kollapsede sammen med olieprisen i efteråret 2008 fra en top i sommer og resulterede i en voldsom lagerreduktion fordi man havde hamstret råvarer og råvarer holdige produkter medens priserne steg for at tjene på stigningen i priserne på lagerbeholdningerne medens priserne steg og da de faldt forsøgte man at reducere lagrene hurtigst muligt for at beholde de gevinster man havde haft og undgå tab og forstærket af kreditkrisen, der bl.a. er udløst af dette fald i priserne, selvfølgelig mest huspriserne og den virkning det fik på de financielle selskaber og delevering, hvor man også solgte ud af aktiver som aktier mm, har virksomhederne incl detail og grossist ledene i forbruget reduceret lagrene for meget op til jul i 08 4q og slet ikke opbygget de nødvendige lagre i perioden op til jul og solgt alt for meget med alt for store rabatter så forbruget reelt set slet ikke er faldet noget særligt bortset fra salget af biler og huse

5. den negative lagercyklus er ved at være afsluttet her i marts/april, som jeg tidligere har analyseret, først i forbrug/teknologi sektorerne og nu i bil og hussektorerne

6. investeringerne er som sagt kollapset og det er råvarepriserne også, og sisse to sektorer hænger sammen fordi en del af årsagen til boomet i investeringenre var boomet i råvarepriserne, der kræver store investeringer og råvarepriserne var presset op af stigningen i investeringerne så hverken investeringer eller råvarepriser vil stige igen før om 2-3 år eller mere, måske bortset fra olieprisen, hvor udbuddet af olie ikke ser ud til at kunne stige og efterspørgslen fra bl.a. og især kina og indien fortsat stiger

7. til gengæld regner jeg med et opsving i forbruget incl teknologi og bil og hussalg her og nu, hvilket allerede er ved at ske, men det er mest i kina/indien og andre lande som brazilien og visse steder i europa, men da lagrene er reduceret voldsomt regner jeg med et fortsat opsving i forbrug, teknologi, bil og hussalg i de kommende måneder med et formodentligt boom allerede engang i 09 2h og en mærkbar forbedring allerde i 09 2q

8 de forskellige pakker betyder selvfølgelig en hel del for ovennævnte udvikling i punkt 7, men det ville da være mærkeligt hvis ikke de skulle få en effekt her i 09 2q, og det virker jo allerede i store dele af verden selvom jeg ikke ser nogen virkning endnu i usa eller japan

9. så man kan regne med et forbrugstrukket opsving de næste 2-3 år og som allerede er ved at starte, der så sker medens råstofpriser og investeringer kommer dybere ned i krisen i 2-3 år bortset fra olien og så om 2-3 år vil investeringenr stige igen og det er især en fortsat rimelig høj vækst i forbruget i kina, der stadig ligger omkring 15% p.a. i faste priser, indien og en række andre fattigere lande som brazilien og asien mm, der vil trække denne opgang

10. inflation bliver der ikke noget af foreløbig, medens en eventuel kortvarig deflation bare er et kortvarigt cyklisk fænomen, der ikke bør tages alvorligt som evt problem

11. så alt i alt et godt scenarie for fortsatte stigninger i de aktier, der er faldet mest indenfor forbrug, teknologi, bil og bolig, og også olierelaterede og finans medens man skal holde sig væk fra kapitalgoder, infrastruktur, skibe, stål, råvarer excl olie mm

12. det bedste aktiemarked bliver uden tvivl kinesiske aktier noteret i hong kong




5/4 2009 14:58 le 07111



bil subsidier i japan

TOKYO, April 4 (Reuters) - Japan is considering introducing subsidies of up to 300,000 yen ($2,991) for the purchases of gasoline/electricity hybrids and other low emission vehicles to shore up slumping auto demand, the Nikkei business daily said on Saturday.

Measures to promote the use of environment-friendly products such as energy-saving home appliances are expected to be part of a new economic stimulus plan compiled by mid-April, Japanese media had said previously. [ID:nT109832]

The Nikkei said the subsidies under consideration would cover electric and hybrid vehicles as well as regular gasoline- or diesel-engine cars that meet certain emission standards.

Buyers of mini vehicles that fall under these categories would receive 100,000 yen in subsidy for each purchase, and the amount would be doubled for the purchase of a larger qualifying automobile, the newspaper said.

Mini vehicles have maximum engine displacements of 660 cc.

An additional 100,000 yen would be offered to those who upgrade to a new qualifying vehicle from a car that is at least 13 years old, the newspaper said.

Reuters efforts to contact trade ministry officials on Saturday were unsuccessful.

Toyota Motor Corp (7203.T) leads the market for hybrid cars with its Prius model, while Mitsubishi Motors Corp (7211.T), the only mass-volume carmaker with an electric car prototype on the road, begins selling its egg-shaped i-MiEV electric car to corporate customers in Japan from July.

The government aims to introduce the new subsidies by summer and maintain the scheme by March 2010, the Nikkei said. ($1=100.30 Yen) (Reporting by Kiyoshi Takenaka; Editing by Anshuman Daga)






5/4 2009 15:55 le 07116



biler - lagerstyring

Carmakers improve logistics to cut costs

* Nissan to boost 'build-to-order' system

* Toyota to stock more imported components



By Helen Massy-Beresford and Chang-Ran Kim

PARIS/TOKYO, April 3 (Reuters) - Reeling from a costly and sudden build-up of unsold cars, automakers are looking for better ways to build, ship and sell their vehicles.

Inventories dealerships and ports ballooned across many regions around the end of last year as a sudden freefall in car sales exposed inflexibility among manufacturers.

"Automakers can't adapt that quickly to sudden fluctuations in demand," UBS Securities auto analyst Tatsuo Yoshida explained. "Unlike white goods makers, they can't open and close factories on a whim. In times like these, they can only sit tight and endure it."

This lack of agility has translated immediately to weaker balance sheets. During the first three financial quarters to Dec. 31, Japan's Honda Motor Co saw 367 billion yen ($3.7 billion) drained from its operating cash flow -- more than double the amount from the same period a year earlier.

Others report similar trends, as the crisis and tumbling sales force them to rip up profit targets and focus on cash.

"Every car manufacturer will now be looking to take this cost out of the business. The most precious resource we have now is cash, and the biggest user of cash is vehicle inventory," said Simon Thomas, Nissan Europe's senior vice president sales.

The pain is especially acute in the United States, where cars are usually sold directly off dealer lots, meaning carmakers are building cars for sale weeks or months in advance.

At the other end of the spectrum is Japan, where more cars are built to order and dealers carry virtually no inventory. Europe lies somewhere in between.

Som automakers have already come up with new ideas to squeeze inventory costs out.

Nissan has brought "build-to-order" to Europe, using its relatively flexible Sunderland plant, which makes the popular Qashqai model, as a starting point.

"Before the economic crisis we probably thought our BTO programme was quite adequate. But clearly in the current context, where cash is so valuable, it's not," Thomas said. Continued
The diversity of the European market makes a complete shift to "build-to-order" unlikely, Thomas said. But he said he wanted the ratio to exceed half, from less than 10 percent previously.

Michel Faivre-Duboz, who oversees supply chain and logistics at Nissan's French partner, Renault, agreed that building all cars to order would not make sense, partly because it is impractical for models such as Renault's Korea-made Koleos 4x4 crossover which is shipped large distances to customers.

Nevertheless, the group is making some changes. "We're having to live dangerously, to try to make as many sales as we can with the lowest possible levels of stocks," he said.

STEP BY STEP

Analysts give a cautious welcome to the counter-measures.

"Anything these companies can do to lower their cost bases and increase their efficiency will be welcome," said Tim Urquhart, analyst at financial analysis firm Global Insight.

"They can't afford to have hundreds of thousands of cars sitting around doing nothing. It damages the brand and hits residual value."

The Renault-Nissan group now holds a weekly meeting on inventories, keeping the thorny issue in the spotlight. The partners are leaning towards a system whereby output is based on the "pull" of customers rather than the "push" of production.

To that end, Nissan is looking to raise its stock of vehicle components to allow for tailor-made cars, rather than be stuck with a stock of unsold cars with unpopular specifications. In tandem, it aims to cut its inventory of fully-assembled vehicles across Europe to two months from the current three.

Toyota Motor Corp has a similar idea. Although Japan's top automaker has several factories across Europe, it still imports some components from Japan, limiting flexibility.

Didier Leroy, a top executive at Toyota, said that needed to change, which is why Toyota is looking to set up a system of holding some specific inventory of parts in Europe this year.

"Step by step we are decreasing the lead time to be closer and closer to the Japan organisation," he told Reuters recently.

Honda, meanwhile, is counting on its basic policy of building as many cars as possible locally to help it react swiftly to trends in demand.

But having a broad manufacturing footprint can backfire, such as when factories -- like Honda's Swindon plant in Britain -- are idled for months at a time, while overhead costs remain.

"If you look at balance sheets of different manufacturers, my experience has been that the cash tied up in plant and equipment is actually far greater than the difference in inventory if you adjust for scale," said Jeffrey Guyton, chief executive of Mazda Motor's European operations.

"So it may be advantageous to us that we're actually small, and concentrated (in Hiroshima)," he said, because inventory can be sold and dealt with more efficiently. Continued...






5/4 2009 17:11 le 07117



kina opsving PMI indeks

China says manufacturing expanded in March
China's economy is showing signs of recovering, the nation's statistics chief said as government data indicated manufacturing activity expanded in March for the first time in six months. The official Purchasing Managers' Index, or PMI, for China's manufacturing sector rose to 52.4 in March, up from 49 in February, the China Federation of Logistics and Purchasing said in data released late Thursday. A reading above 50 means the manufacturing sector is expanding, while a reading below 50 indicates an overall decline. It was the first time the official PMI had moved into positive territory since it hit 51.2 in September. It sank to a record low of 38.8 in November. "The PMI not only shows the government economic stimulus package has begun to take obvious effect, but also indicates a stabilising and warming economy," National Statistics Bureau director Ma Jiantang said. Ma was referring to a four-trillion-yuan (584.8-billion-dollar) stimulus package announced in November last year. He also attributed the lift to incentive programmes for rural home appliance purchases and other measures of support for key industries. The government PMI reading contradicted a reading released on Wednesday by independent brokerage CLSA Asia-Pacific Markets, which indicated manufacturing activity had declined, with its index falling to 44.8 in March from 45.1 in February. JP Morgan economist Qian Wang said the different directions shown in the two readings could be due to the larger sample size of the official survey, which covers 700 companies, compared with the CLSA's 400. "We suspect that there could be more state-owned-enterprises and large-sized firms in the NBS sample, which is clearly benefiting more than the private and small-medium enterprises from the government's aggressive fiscal stimulus and commercial banks' credit expansion," Wang said. Economists echoed Ma's comments, saying the latest PMI figures suggested China's manufacturers may have seen the worst of the economic crisis. "The Chinese economy may have already hit its rock bottom in the March quarter," Sherman Chan, an economist for Moody's Economy.com said. "Thanks to a power government -- in terms of its financial might and also influence on various sectors of the economy -- the fiscal stimulus package is yielding desired results," she said. Nomura economist Mingchun Sun said China could be seeing the start of a "V-Shaped" recovery, and economic growth would likely meet the government target of eight percent for 2009. "The reading has broken through the boom-bust line of 50, suggesting that an economic recovery is underway," Sun wrote in a research note. Both output and orders rose above the break-even point, while the data indicated inventories of raw materials also continued to rise, he said. However Goldman Sachs sounded a note of caution. "At least some of the rebound has been based on the expected rise in demand which could be overly optimistic," the investment bank said in a research note. "While we remain optimistic about China's growth trajectory in the coming quarters, there are likely to be fluctuations on the way up." Manufacturing accounts for more than 40 percent of the economy in China, which has been hit hard by evaporating demand for its products in key export markets such as the United States and Europe.




8/4 2009 09:37 le 07308



China Stimulus Stimulates Whole Globe

http://www.cnbc.com/id/30015757/?__source=yahoo%7Chea..

Posted By: Lee Brodie
Topics:China | Stock Market | Stock Picks
Companies:Potash Corporation of Saskatchewan Inc. | Hess Corp | Conocophillips | Exxon Mobil Corp | IBM | United States Steel Corporation | Joy Global Inc.


It seems that China’s stimulus package might already be working some magic. China’s stock market touched 7-month highs on reports that both housing sales and construction starts are on a mild upswing.

And the New York Times says construction is also well underway on new highways and rail lines.

This is crucial because the world's metal and oil markets are dependent on Chinese demand; and not surprisingly, both experienced a jolt.

Not only are there signs that China’s stimulus is starting to work but some pundits feels that China is in an enviable position for the years to come.

They say, as compared to many other countries including the US, China has piles of cash and a strong banking system. That could ultimately make China an even stronger competitor than it was before the crisis.

What’s the trade?

Joe Terranova thinks a large number of American companies stand to benefit and he recommends long positions in the following: Joy Global [JOYG 23.53 -0.48 (-2%) ], US Steel [X 24.50 -1.37 (-5.3%) ], IBM [IBM 100.80 -1.42 (-1.39%) ], Exxon Mobil [XOM 69.03 -1.41 (-2%) ], ConocoPhillips [COP 40.99 -1.37 (-3.23%) ], Hess [HES 56.77 -2.99 (-5%) ], and/or Potash [POT 82.60 -3.11 (-3.63%) ].

Or if you’re looking for a currency play Terranova suggests getting long Australia’s dollar through the FXA [FXA 71.03 -0.57 (-0.8%) ].

And in case you’re wondering Terranova is putting his money where his mouth is. Following are his disclosures: Terranova Owns (JOYG), (X), (IBM), (XOM), (COP), (HES), (POT).



You can see our entire conversation with Joe Terranova at the end of the Word On The Street video to your left.




8/4 2009 09:50 le 07313



ifølge kinas statistik er investeringerne steget 26% i jan-feb, og det er samme vækstrate som i 2008 og de foregående år

det er ret imponerende, man skal lige prøve at forestille sig hvis investeringerne var steget 26% et enkelt år i danmark eller usa/europa - det har man slet ikke fantasi nok til

og det viser at kina er ved at trække den globale økonomi op, især det omkringliggende asien, også australien

geografisk er fordeling som tidligere at bejing og shanghai har hhv fald eller stagnation, men kun udgør 7-8% af den samlede kinesiske økonomi og at de fleste regioner har vækstrater på 30-40%

http://www.stats.gov.cn/english/statisticaldata/month..



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