I de kommende år er der udsigt til 5% årlig vækst i LPG-markedet i Asien. Hvorfor dette markedet er så stort lige nu - og hvor det stiger, fortæller jeg om i udsendelsen (7,40).
https://www.24syv.dk/programmer/millionaerklubben/56371693/qa-med-larsen-og-persson
"Asia LPG market stood at over $ 81.4 billion in 2018 and is projected to grow at a CAGR (Compound annual growth rate) of over 5% to cross $ 109 billion by 2024".
Read the full report: https://www.reportlinker.com/p05813155/?utm_source=PRN
https://www.prnewswire.com/news-releases/asia-liquefied-petroleum-gas-market-by-source-by-application-by-lpg-composition-by-country-competition-forecast--opportunities-2024-300913932.html
Disclaimer: Jeg har aktier i Avance Gas Holding, Bw-LPG og Dorian.
https://www.24syv.dk/programmer/millionaerklubben/56371693/qa-med-larsen-og-persson
"Asia LPG market stood at over $ 81.4 billion in 2018 and is projected to grow at a CAGR (Compound annual growth rate) of over 5% to cross $ 109 billion by 2024".
Read the full report: https://www.reportlinker.com/p05813155/?utm_source=PRN
https://www.prnewswire.com/news-releases/asia-liquefied-petroleum-gas-market-by-source-by-application-by-lpg-composition-by-country-competition-forecast--opportunities-2024-300913932.html
Disclaimer: Jeg har aktier i Avance Gas Holding, Bw-LPG og Dorian.
5/10 2019 12:20 Jens_Langkniv 2
77477 Jeg kan se på Yahoo at Avance i juni 15 var over 140 nkr. Forventer du at den kan komme op i det niveau igen?
https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/AVANCE.OL
https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/AVANCE.OL
5/10 2019 14:54 Helge Larsen/PI-redaktør 477480 Jeg ser et cyklisk rederiselskab, som vil få en god indtjening pga høje rater i et stramt marked i nogle år endnu. Det vil give kursstigninger og gode udbytter. Hvor kursen ender ved jeg ikke. Giver normalt heller ikke bud på den slags.
Det skal nævnes at der på daværende tidspunkt var ca. halvdelen af det antal aktier der er idag. Så du skal dele den kurs med to.
Var det der samme antal skibe? Det vil jeg umiddelbart tro, Avance Gas' skibe er ikke de nyeste, men hvis antallet af skibe er fordoblet, er det ligemeget, at antallet af aktier er fordoblet.
Avance fik i 2015 løbende leveret 8 nybygninger. De har nu 14 VLGC i blandet alder idag. Ved dagens rater giver kurs 140 ca P/E på 6 . I 2015 var P/E ca 3. Der er kursmål ude på omkring 70 nkr hvilket nok er rimeligt.
5/10 2019 15:17 Helge Larsen/PI-redaktør 377481 Som jeg fortalte i Millionærklubben:
"LPG shipping largely unaffected by attack on Saudi Arabia".
https://www.hellenicshippingnews.com/lpg-shipping-largely-unaffected-by-attack-on-saudi-arabia/
"LPG shipping largely unaffected by attack on Saudi Arabia".
https://www.hellenicshippingnews.com/lpg-shipping-largely-unaffected-by-attack-on-saudi-arabia/
5/10 2019 15:28 Helge Larsen/PI-redaktør 277482 Interview på Børsen Play om LPG-rederierne:
http://www.proinvestor.com/debat/77470#77481
http://www.proinvestor.com/debat/77470#77481
Jeg vil kraftigt anbefale Joakim Hannisdahl fra Cleaves Securities, hvis I ikke allerede kender ham.
Han er shippinganalytiker med norsk bias (perfekt!). Han analyserer olietank, tørlast, LPG og LNG. Desværre ikke produkttank.
Joakim Hannisdahl udgiver masser af rapporter, der kan hentes gratis, hvis man registrer sig. Hans track record er uovertruffen. Bemærk dog, at jeg ikke har uafhængig bekræftelse af dette, men jeg hælder til, at Joakim overvejende sandsynligt taler sandt.
Jeg er ret vild med hans kvantitative metode. Han laver prognoser på de fremtidige rater inden for sektorerne, og anvender herefter dette som et hovedindput i analysen af selskaberne.
Her er en et link til hans twitter profil.
https://twitter.com/JHannisdahl
Han er shippinganalytiker med norsk bias (perfekt!). Han analyserer olietank, tørlast, LPG og LNG. Desværre ikke produkttank.
Joakim Hannisdahl udgiver masser af rapporter, der kan hentes gratis, hvis man registrer sig. Hans track record er uovertruffen. Bemærk dog, at jeg ikke har uafhængig bekræftelse af dette, men jeg hælder til, at Joakim overvejende sandsynligt taler sandt.
Jeg er ret vild med hans kvantitative metode. Han laver prognoser på de fremtidige rater inden for sektorerne, og anvender herefter dette som et hovedindput i analysen af selskaberne.
Her er en et link til hans twitter profil.
https://twitter.com/JHannisdahl
jeg var lige inde og checke hans week mail for uge 40
Han skriver dog om produkttank, under afnittet med Oil Tankers: "We expect product tankers to follow suit as coated vessels turning dirty thins the tonnage list."
Så han er ikke helt ignorant overfor produkttank
Han skriver dog om produkttank, under afnittet med Oil Tankers: "We expect product tankers to follow suit as coated vessels turning dirty thins the tonnage list."
Så han er ikke helt ignorant overfor produkttank
6/10 2019 12:07 Delfin 077502 Ok. Sidst jeg tjekkede, var der dog ingen produkttankselskaber, som han analyserede. Men derfor kan han jo godt komme med generelle bemærkninger om produkttankmarkedet.
Nej, nej, jeg tror ikke han har produkttank selskaber på sin liste. Jeg så det bare som en generel kommentar.
Han har det i alt fald ikke som en sektion under shipping, sum du selv skriver det.
Han har det i alt fald ikke som en sektion under shipping, sum du selv skriver det.
Ny Shipping Weekly fra Joakim Hannisdahl oven på en fantastisk uge:
"Dry Bulk Shipping: The BDI fell 5% w/w, with similar losses in the sub-segments. We still believe we are close to a short-term trough, and that Capesize spot rates will rise in the coming months as Brazil again increases its iron ore exports from the current 27mt per month to 34mt tonnes. Panamaxes generally softened in the Atlantic as tonnage continued to build, but the rates ex-USG firmed slightly on rumors of Chinese buyers of grain.
Oil Tankers: What a week! VLCCs surging 71% to reach a 3-year-high. The impact from US sanctions on Chinese owners, a persistent risk premium after the Saudi attacks and scrubber retrofitting are the short-term catalysts. However, do not forget the underlying fundamental trends we have been highlighting for years: The lowest orderbook since 1997, increasing US exports, and the implications from IMO'20 are now highly tangible.
LNG Carriers: LNG carriers also wanting their spot in the limelight this week, with TFDEs quoted +16% w/w to $84k/d as we enter the high-season of the year. MEGI/XDFs now quoted at $100k/d, with Flex LNG (BUY/N185) said to have chartered out two vessels around the $100k/d mark.
LPG Carriers: VLGC spot rates rose 19% w/w to $66k/d amidst another active week in the West. Asian LPG prices have increased lately, raising the regional price differential US vs Asia. This "arbitrage" now supports theoretical VLGC rates of $83k/d, and we see further upside in the near term."
https://www.cleaves.no/single-post/2019/10/06/Shipping-Weekly-412019
"Dry Bulk Shipping: The BDI fell 5% w/w, with similar losses in the sub-segments. We still believe we are close to a short-term trough, and that Capesize spot rates will rise in the coming months as Brazil again increases its iron ore exports from the current 27mt per month to 34mt tonnes. Panamaxes generally softened in the Atlantic as tonnage continued to build, but the rates ex-USG firmed slightly on rumors of Chinese buyers of grain.
Oil Tankers: What a week! VLCCs surging 71% to reach a 3-year-high. The impact from US sanctions on Chinese owners, a persistent risk premium after the Saudi attacks and scrubber retrofitting are the short-term catalysts. However, do not forget the underlying fundamental trends we have been highlighting for years: The lowest orderbook since 1997, increasing US exports, and the implications from IMO'20 are now highly tangible.
LNG Carriers: LNG carriers also wanting their spot in the limelight this week, with TFDEs quoted +16% w/w to $84k/d as we enter the high-season of the year. MEGI/XDFs now quoted at $100k/d, with Flex LNG (BUY/N185) said to have chartered out two vessels around the $100k/d mark.
LPG Carriers: VLGC spot rates rose 19% w/w to $66k/d amidst another active week in the West. Asian LPG prices have increased lately, raising the regional price differential US vs Asia. This "arbitrage" now supports theoretical VLGC rates of $83k/d, and we see further upside in the near term."
https://www.cleaves.no/single-post/2019/10/06/Shipping-Weekly-412019
Sidste gang LPG-raterne var så høje som nu i 2015 udbetalte Avance Gas 1/3 af aktiekursen i udbytte (Fra den amerikanske notering: Aktiekurs 15 USD med 5,01 USD i udbytte).
Lad os håbe på en gentagelse i 2020.
Lad os håbe på en gentagelse i 2020.
7/10 2019 07:58 Helge Larsen/PI-redaktør 177540 Jeg kom desværre fejlagtigt til at sige halvdelen af aktiekursen i Mio-klubben i fredags. Men ok...Overdrivelse fremmer forståelsen. 
Ha, ha, Ja, det var faktisk det, der fik mig til at se på det, Helge. 1/3 er stadig forrygende. Tak for at henlede min opmærksomhed på det. Klassisk John Fredriksen.
Præcis. Herbjørn Hansson fra Nordic American Tankers har den samme "norske" udbyttepolitik med høje næsten uansvarlige udbytter. Jeg forventer mig høje udbytter fra NAT som følge af spotraterne på Suezmax.
Når NAT steg 20 % fredag, tror jeg, at det er fordi, at markedet ikke har glemt, hvordan NAT betaler udbytter i gode tider.
Når NAT steg 20 % fredag, tror jeg, at det er fordi, at markedet ikke har glemt, hvordan NAT betaler udbytter i gode tider.
7/10 2019 10:20 B.Andersen 277551 Cleaves: Kursmål på Avance og BW LPG
LPG Carriers: VLGC spot rates rose 19% w/w to $66k/d amidst another active week in the West. Asian LPG prices have increased lately, raising the regional price differential US vs Asia. This "arbitrage" now supports theoretical VLGC rates of $83k/d, and we see further upside in the near term.
Kursmål:
BWLPG: 89 NOK
Avance: 67 NOK
https://docs.wixstatic.com/ugd/5f38c3_63260fd6a80f488384bb101dac6eb868.pdf
LPG Carriers: VLGC spot rates rose 19% w/w to $66k/d amidst another active week in the West. Asian LPG prices have increased lately, raising the regional price differential US vs Asia. This "arbitrage" now supports theoretical VLGC rates of $83k/d, and we see further upside in the near term.
Kursmål:
BWLPG: 89 NOK
Avance: 67 NOK
https://docs.wixstatic.com/ugd/5f38c3_63260fd6a80f488384bb101dac6eb868.pdf
8/10 2019 16:42 Helge Larsen/PI-redaktør 377606 LPG: Kursfesten forsætter i et rødt marked.
Både Avance og BW-LPG løfter sig op i slutauktionen og slutter stærkt igen i dag.
Avance Gas Holding er steget med 223% i år.
BW LPG er steget med 127%.
Både Avance og BW-LPG løfter sig op i slutauktionen og slutter stærkt igen i dag.
Avance Gas Holding er steget med 223% i år.
BW LPG er steget med 127%.
9/10 2019 09:21 Helge Larsen/PI-redaktør 277641 ASS:EIA OPPJUSTERER ANSLAG FOR AMERIKANSK NATURGASSPRODUKSJON
08:44
Oslo (TDN Direkt): Det amerikanske energidepartementets statistikkfløy, EIA, oppjusterer anslagene for amerikansk naturgassproduksjon for 2019 og 2020.
Det fremgår av EIAs seneste Short Term Energy Outlook-rapport 2019, publisert tirsdag kveld, sammenlignet med rapporten måneden før.
EIA venter nå en tørr naturgassproduksjon på 91,63 milliarder kubikkfot pr dag i 2019, mot tidligere anslag på 91,39 milliarder.
For 2020 ventes det nå en naturgassproduksjon på 93,50 milliarder kubikkfot, mot 93,19 milliarder i forrige rapport.
I 2019 venter EIA fortsatt en propanproduksjon på 1,59 millioner fat oljeekvivalenter pr dag i snitt, fra 1,58 forrige rapport
I 2020 ventes det nå en propanproduksjon på 1,70 millioner fat pr dag, mot tidligere anslag på 1,68 millioner fat.
Butanproduksjonen i 2019 anslås fortsatt til 0,85 millioner fat pr dag, mens butanproduksjonen i 2020 anslås til 0,90 millioner fat pr dag, mot tidligere 0,89 millioner fat pr dag.
ØT, finans@tdn.no
TDN Direkt, +47 21 95 60 70
© TDN delayed
08:44
Oslo (TDN Direkt): Det amerikanske energidepartementets statistikkfløy, EIA, oppjusterer anslagene for amerikansk naturgassproduksjon for 2019 og 2020.
Det fremgår av EIAs seneste Short Term Energy Outlook-rapport 2019, publisert tirsdag kveld, sammenlignet med rapporten måneden før.
EIA venter nå en tørr naturgassproduksjon på 91,63 milliarder kubikkfot pr dag i 2019, mot tidligere anslag på 91,39 milliarder.
For 2020 ventes det nå en naturgassproduksjon på 93,50 milliarder kubikkfot, mot 93,19 milliarder i forrige rapport.
I 2019 venter EIA fortsatt en propanproduksjon på 1,59 millioner fat oljeekvivalenter pr dag i snitt, fra 1,58 forrige rapport
I 2020 ventes det nå en propanproduksjon på 1,70 millioner fat pr dag, mot tidligere anslag på 1,68 millioner fat.
Butanproduksjonen i 2019 anslås fortsatt til 0,85 millioner fat pr dag, mens butanproduksjonen i 2020 anslås til 0,90 millioner fat pr dag, mot tidligere 0,89 millioner fat pr dag.
ØT, finans@tdn.no
TDN Direkt, +47 21 95 60 70
© TDN delayed
11/10 2019 07:00 Helge Larsen/PI-redaktør 177748 BankW-LPG: Swedbank med kursmål 74 NOK
D. 10 oktober 2019
UPPDATERING
Kursuppgång efter betydande kassaflöde på en stark LPG-marknad
Fundamenta i LPG-marknaden fortsätter att utvecklas ungefär i linje med våra förväntningar. Vi har haft en positiv vy sedan mars 2018, som fortfarande drivs av överlägsenheten i USA:s kolväteproduktion. Även om andelen ökar med 110% hittills i år, handlar vi fortfarande under vårt prognostiserade värde på 68 MUSD för en femårig VLGC. Vi prognostiserar fraktrater på mer än 40 000 USD/dag för de kommande fyra kvartalen och förväntar oss att den starka kassagenereringen kommer att stödja aktien. Vi upprepar Köp och riktkursen på 74 NOK.
Investment case
LPG-sjöfarten fortsätter att vara ett renodlat spel på USA, med dess överlägsenhet inom kolväteproduktion. De långsiktiga utsikterna för amerikansk LPG-produktion fortsätter att se bra ut. Därför förväntar vi oss att transportbehovet kommer att växa snabbare än utbudet, vilket resulterar i fraktrater på mer än 40 000 USD/dag under 2020-2021p.
Vår värdering förutsätter P/NAV på 0,8x
Den implicita värderingen i dagens aktiekurs är 57 MUSD för en femårig VLGC. Detta är under det 15-åriga genomsnittet på 69 MUSD och konsensus på 68 MUSD. Vårt NAV-värde per aktie uppgår till 94 NOK, vilket fortutsätter en värdering på 68 MUSD för en fem år gammal VLGC.
Katalysatorer och risker
De nuvarande fraktraterna innebär en fri kassaflödesavkastning på 60% för BW LPG. För varje månad som dessa fraktrater kan upprätthållas är kassagenereringen tillräckligt betydande för att behålla den positiva aktieutvecklingen. Vi upprepar Köp och riktkursen till 74 NOK.
D. 10 oktober 2019
UPPDATERING
Kursuppgång efter betydande kassaflöde på en stark LPG-marknad
Fundamenta i LPG-marknaden fortsätter att utvecklas ungefär i linje med våra förväntningar. Vi har haft en positiv vy sedan mars 2018, som fortfarande drivs av överlägsenheten i USA:s kolväteproduktion. Även om andelen ökar med 110% hittills i år, handlar vi fortfarande under vårt prognostiserade värde på 68 MUSD för en femårig VLGC. Vi prognostiserar fraktrater på mer än 40 000 USD/dag för de kommande fyra kvartalen och förväntar oss att den starka kassagenereringen kommer att stödja aktien. Vi upprepar Köp och riktkursen på 74 NOK.
Investment case
LPG-sjöfarten fortsätter att vara ett renodlat spel på USA, med dess överlägsenhet inom kolväteproduktion. De långsiktiga utsikterna för amerikansk LPG-produktion fortsätter att se bra ut. Därför förväntar vi oss att transportbehovet kommer att växa snabbare än utbudet, vilket resulterar i fraktrater på mer än 40 000 USD/dag under 2020-2021p.
Vår värdering förutsätter P/NAV på 0,8x
Den implicita värderingen i dagens aktiekurs är 57 MUSD för en femårig VLGC. Detta är under det 15-åriga genomsnittet på 69 MUSD och konsensus på 68 MUSD. Vårt NAV-värde per aktie uppgår till 94 NOK, vilket fortutsätter en värdering på 68 MUSD för en fem år gammal VLGC.
Katalysatorer och risker
De nuvarande fraktraterna innebär en fri kassaflödesavkastning på 60% för BW LPG. För varje månad som dessa fraktrater kan upprätthållas är kassagenereringen tillräckligt betydande för att behålla den positiva aktieutvecklingen. Vi upprepar Köp och riktkursen till 74 NOK.
11/10 2019 07:13 B.Andersen 177749 LPG-Candidate for best-performing segment through 2020.
The most overlooked and underfollowed segment that I cover could be a legitimate "dark horse" candidate for best-performing segment through 2020.
In a recent Value Investor's Edge exclusive report, I detailed how the LPG segment was able to shake off one of the most negative trade flow shifts and demand-side developments in recent times.
Strong organic global growth is underpinning the bullish outlook for this segment in a big way, to the point that LPG spot rates continued to climb in the face of this massive headwind.
The negative story, of course, was the US-China trade war.
As China shunned US LPG, substitutes had to be found, straining existing alternate suppliers, and volume growth inevitably suffered as they struggled to replace existing US cargoes. Looking at VLGC cargoes illustrated this point.
https://seekingalpha.com/article/4295843-shippings-notorious-problem-becoming-biggest-blessing
The most overlooked and underfollowed segment that I cover could be a legitimate "dark horse" candidate for best-performing segment through 2020.
In a recent Value Investor's Edge exclusive report, I detailed how the LPG segment was able to shake off one of the most negative trade flow shifts and demand-side developments in recent times.
Strong organic global growth is underpinning the bullish outlook for this segment in a big way, to the point that LPG spot rates continued to climb in the face of this massive headwind.
The negative story, of course, was the US-China trade war.
As China shunned US LPG, substitutes had to be found, straining existing alternate suppliers, and volume growth inevitably suffered as they struggled to replace existing US cargoes. Looking at VLGC cargoes illustrated this point.
https://seekingalpha.com/article/4295843-shippings-notorious-problem-becoming-biggest-blessing
Præcis. Som medlem af J. Mintzmyers Value Investor's Egde fik jeg denne artikel for nogle dage siden. Og jeg bed også mærke James Catlins sætning om LPG:
"The most overlooked and underfollowed segment that I cover could be a legitimate "dark horse" candidate for best-performing segment through 2020."
"The most overlooked and underfollowed segment that I cover could be a legitimate "dark horse" candidate for best-performing segment through 2020."
Delfin hvor kan man registrer sig er vildt meget intereseret i denne branche på forhånd tak
Følge Joakim Hannisdahl på twitter.
https://twitter.com/JHannisdahl
Registrer dig på Seeking Alpha og følg J. Mintzmyer og Joeri van der Sman. Så er du dækket ind.
https://seekingalpha.com/
https://twitter.com/JHannisdahl
Registrer dig på Seeking Alpha og følg J. Mintzmyer og Joeri van der Sman. Så er du dækket ind.
https://seekingalpha.com/
Et godt råd er at følge raterne MEGET tæt !
Joakim har et glimrende skriv hver uge hvor de bliver fremlagt og du kan følge futures her : https://www.cmegroup.com/trading/energy/freight/freight-route-lpg-baltic-futures.html
Du ganger prisen med kapasitet på 84000 m3 for VLGC og dividerer med 100 så har du dagsraten i $
Joakim har et glimrende skriv hver uge hvor de bliver fremlagt og du kan følge futures her : https://www.cmegroup.com/trading/energy/freight/freight-route-lpg-baltic-futures.html
Du ganger prisen med kapasitet på 84000 m3 for VLGC og dividerer med 100 så har du dagsraten i $
13/10 2019 19:42 Helge Larsen/PI-redaktør 177835 LPG: Nordea øker kursmålet i Avance Gas til NOK 49 (38) og BW LPG til NOK 75 (67), kjøp gjentas for begge.
14/10 2019 08:58 Helge Larsen/PI-redaktør 277841 Nye kursmål i Avance og BW-LPG.
Cleaves:
Avance: 81 NOK. (fra 67)
BW-LPG: 108 NOK (fra 89)
Cleaves:
Avance: 81 NOK. (fra 67)
BW-LPG: 108 NOK (fra 89)
14/10 2019 13:29 Helge Larsen/PI-redaktør 177844 DNB: LPG stocks upgraded to BUY (HOLD)
We have raised our target prices to NOK75 (NOK50) for BW LPG, NOK52 (NOK31) for Avance Gas, and USD16.3 (USD9.8) for Dorian LPG. We have applied a 20% discount to our 1-year forward NAVs, so if stocks were to trade to 1.0x our 1-year forward NAV there could be further upside potential.
We have raised our target prices to NOK75 (NOK50) for BW LPG, NOK52 (NOK31) for Avance Gas, and USD16.3 (USD9.8) for Dorian LPG. We have applied a 20% discount to our 1-year forward NAVs, so if stocks were to trade to 1.0x our 1-year forward NAV there could be further upside potential.
17/10 2019 18:16 Helge Larsen/PI-redaktør 278030 Her er så forklaringen hvorfor Avance to dage i træk er blevet banket ned efter flotte morgenstigninger.
STOLT-NIELSEN GAS LTD, a company controlled by STOLT-NIELSEN LIMITED, has sold a total of 2,252,800 shares of AVANCE GAS HOLDING in market trades. As a result of these trades, STOLT-NIELSEN GAS LTD has today, October 17, 2019, passed below the 5% notification threshold. The holding following this sale is 3,225,999 shares, corresponding to 4.99% of the shares in AVANCE GAS HOLDING.
STOLT-NIELSEN GAS LTD, a company controlled by STOLT-NIELSEN LIMITED, has sold a total of 2,252,800 shares of AVANCE GAS HOLDING in market trades. As a result of these trades, STOLT-NIELSEN GAS LTD has today, October 17, 2019, passed below the 5% notification threshold. The holding following this sale is 3,225,999 shares, corresponding to 4.99% of the shares in AVANCE GAS HOLDING.
Stolt Nielsen er nede på 2.47 procent her til morgen 4-11 de har temligt sikkert solgt ud inden 29-11 hvor q3 bliver fremlagt. Jeg tror på en højre belægning og opnåede rater end Dorian Og Bw igen iøvrigt og et guide for Q4 som vil være kanon stærkt. Kursfesten skal helt sikkert fortsætte den er bare lige på hold for nuværende.
5/11 2019 08:11 Helge Larsen/PI-redaktør 278727 LPG shipping sector is flying high
It's hard to deploy trade barriers against highly fungible commodities; they simply reflow like a brook around a stone. Consider propane. China needs a lot of it, both for heating and for its propane dehydrogenation (PDH) plants as a feedstock for propylene, which is used to manufacture plastics.
China slapped a 25% retaliatory tariff on U.S. liquefied petroleum gas (LPG), including propane, in mid-2018. You might think U.S LPG exports would have suffered. They haven't - they're growing rapidly.
The large majority of the world's LPG is exported from either the U.S. or the Middle East. All the Chinese tariffs have done is redirect the flows.
Most of China's LPG now comes from the Middle East. U.S. cargoes go primarily to Japan and Korea via the Panama Canal - and those volumes are increasing because China's LPG buys in the Middle East leave less supply from that source for Japan and Korea. If Chinese tariffs were curbing U.S. exports, Panama Canal transits would decrease, but LPG volumes transiting the waterway rose 8% in the fiscal year that ended Sept. 30.
The long-haul LPG routes are served by vessels called very large gas carriers (VLGCs), which have a capacity of 84,000 cubic meters each. The largest U.S.-listed owner of VLGCs - with a fleet of 21 owned ships plus one chartered-in - is Dorian LPG (NYSE: LPG). On Oct. 31, Dorian reported net income of $40.7 million for the second quarter of its fiscal year compared with a loss of $8.2 million in the same period last year. Adjusted earnings in the most recent period were $0.75 per share, well above the consensus forecast of $0.59.
VLGC spot rates are currently averaging the equivalent of around $60,000 per day, higher than they usually are at this time of year. The winter months typically herald lower VLGC spot rates. Buyers of LPG generally bring in cargoes for the winter ahead of time, while higher winter propane commodity pricing in Asia makes it more attractive to import naphtha as an alternate feedstock for propylene production.
During the conference call with analysts on Oct. 31, Dorian CEO John Hadjipateras highlighted the unusually strong spot rates for LPG (which are measured in dollars per ton, not dollars per day).
"On this date last year, the Baltic rate [for LPG spot shipping] was $41 a ton and the year before it was $30," said Hadjipateras. "Today, the Baltic is above $70. The market appears to have reached a degree of stability, having traded above $50 a ton since April of this year. And just this quarter, the Baltic struck its highest level since 2015, at $81 a couple of weeks ago."
Dorian President John Lycouris highlighted the broader market positives. "Seaborne LPG has grown 15% year to date over 2018, while U.S. export volumes in recent months have for the first time ever taken the global supply lead over Middle East exports. This might be a direct result of the attacks last month in Saudi Arabia, which affected lifting volumes in September and October."
Dorian President John Lycouris highlighted the broader market positives. "Seaborne LPG has grown 15% year to date over 2018, while U.S. export volumes in recent months have for the first time ever taken the global supply lead over Middle East exports. This might be a direct result of the attacks last month in Saudi Arabia, which affected lifting volumes in September and October."
He continued, "U.S. LPG supply has grown by 4.8 million tons year-over-year and the rest of the world supply has kept pace, growing 4.4 million tons year-over-year."
Lycouris added, "During the third quarter, we saw 187 VLGC liftings out of the U.S. - about six monthly cargoes on average more than last year - and we expect an increased number of liftings in the fourth quarter and next year on account of expanding U.S. export capacity."
On the demand front, he pointed to two new PDH units recently opened in China and facilities in South Korea that have operations with increased propane feedstock intake capacity.
Source: FreightWaves, Greg Miller
https://www.freightwaves.com/news/tag/greg-miller
It's hard to deploy trade barriers against highly fungible commodities; they simply reflow like a brook around a stone. Consider propane. China needs a lot of it, both for heating and for its propane dehydrogenation (PDH) plants as a feedstock for propylene, which is used to manufacture plastics.
China slapped a 25% retaliatory tariff on U.S. liquefied petroleum gas (LPG), including propane, in mid-2018. You might think U.S LPG exports would have suffered. They haven't - they're growing rapidly.
The large majority of the world's LPG is exported from either the U.S. or the Middle East. All the Chinese tariffs have done is redirect the flows.
Most of China's LPG now comes from the Middle East. U.S. cargoes go primarily to Japan and Korea via the Panama Canal - and those volumes are increasing because China's LPG buys in the Middle East leave less supply from that source for Japan and Korea. If Chinese tariffs were curbing U.S. exports, Panama Canal transits would decrease, but LPG volumes transiting the waterway rose 8% in the fiscal year that ended Sept. 30.
The long-haul LPG routes are served by vessels called very large gas carriers (VLGCs), which have a capacity of 84,000 cubic meters each. The largest U.S.-listed owner of VLGCs - with a fleet of 21 owned ships plus one chartered-in - is Dorian LPG (NYSE: LPG). On Oct. 31, Dorian reported net income of $40.7 million for the second quarter of its fiscal year compared with a loss of $8.2 million in the same period last year. Adjusted earnings in the most recent period were $0.75 per share, well above the consensus forecast of $0.59.
VLGC spot rates are currently averaging the equivalent of around $60,000 per day, higher than they usually are at this time of year. The winter months typically herald lower VLGC spot rates. Buyers of LPG generally bring in cargoes for the winter ahead of time, while higher winter propane commodity pricing in Asia makes it more attractive to import naphtha as an alternate feedstock for propylene production.
During the conference call with analysts on Oct. 31, Dorian CEO John Hadjipateras highlighted the unusually strong spot rates for LPG (which are measured in dollars per ton, not dollars per day).
"On this date last year, the Baltic rate [for LPG spot shipping] was $41 a ton and the year before it was $30," said Hadjipateras. "Today, the Baltic is above $70. The market appears to have reached a degree of stability, having traded above $50 a ton since April of this year. And just this quarter, the Baltic struck its highest level since 2015, at $81 a couple of weeks ago."
Dorian President John Lycouris highlighted the broader market positives. "Seaborne LPG has grown 15% year to date over 2018, while U.S. export volumes in recent months have for the first time ever taken the global supply lead over Middle East exports. This might be a direct result of the attacks last month in Saudi Arabia, which affected lifting volumes in September and October."
Dorian President John Lycouris highlighted the broader market positives. "Seaborne LPG has grown 15% year to date over 2018, while U.S. export volumes in recent months have for the first time ever taken the global supply lead over Middle East exports. This might be a direct result of the attacks last month in Saudi Arabia, which affected lifting volumes in September and October."
He continued, "U.S. LPG supply has grown by 4.8 million tons year-over-year and the rest of the world supply has kept pace, growing 4.4 million tons year-over-year."
Lycouris added, "During the third quarter, we saw 187 VLGC liftings out of the U.S. - about six monthly cargoes on average more than last year - and we expect an increased number of liftings in the fourth quarter and next year on account of expanding U.S. export capacity."
On the demand front, he pointed to two new PDH units recently opened in China and facilities in South Korea that have operations with increased propane feedstock intake capacity.
Source: FreightWaves, Greg Miller
https://www.freightwaves.com/news/tag/greg-miller
Avance Gas ' har det ælste skib ud af 14 til salg for 40 mill $ kunne de sælge hele flåden til 45 mill $ stk i snit = 5600 mill nkr trække kontant beholdning ved årsskifte fra gæld ( 180 mill $ - 380 = 200 ) 1800 mill nrk aktuel børsværdi 2700 mill nrk = 4500 mill nrk forskel 1100 mill nrk i forhold til dagen kurs på skibsværdien alene hurtigt regnet ! Men hvorfor dog sælge når de næste år fremover bliver kanon gode ' 3Q d. 29-11 bliver spændende.
3/1 2020 21:56 Helge Larsen/PI-redaktør 180603 Hovedet på blokken - "same procedure as last year"!
Som vanligt har jeg givet mit bud på kursraketter i det kommende år. Senest i december 2019 i Dansk Aktionærforenings medlemsblad. Mit bud blev som forrige år LPG-rederierne Avance Gas Holding og BW-LPG. De steg i 2019 henholdvis 350% og 211% i kurs.
2020 har har startet formiddabelt.
På de første to børsdage i januar har Avance Gas Holding steget 15% og BW-LPG 12,39%.
Disclaimer: Jeg har aktier i begge selskaber.
Som vanligt har jeg givet mit bud på kursraketter i det kommende år. Senest i december 2019 i Dansk Aktionærforenings medlemsblad. Mit bud blev som forrige år LPG-rederierne Avance Gas Holding og BW-LPG. De steg i 2019 henholdvis 350% og 211% i kurs.
2020 har har startet formiddabelt.
På de første to børsdage i januar har Avance Gas Holding steget 15% og BW-LPG 12,39%.
Disclaimer: Jeg har aktier i begge selskaber.
