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DANMARKS STØRSTE INVESTORSITE MED DEBAT, CHAT OG NYHEDER

vigtigt - her er de føste tegn på at min tese


952 le 11/1 2009 10:26
Oversigt

vigtigt - her er de føste tegn på at min tese om at man havde skåret lagrene for langt ned op til jul og at julesalget blev meget bedre end ventet bekræftet så nu er lagrene blevet for små og efterspørgslen er større end udbuddet og priser og produktion stiger

så det bliver spændende om det er starten på en ny positiv lagercyklus i elektronik

for så stiger kurserne hurtigt

LCD TV component demand exceeding supply, say IC distributors

9 January 2009]


LCD TV panel makers have placed a significant level of new orders with IC distributors in January because demand during the year-end holiday season was better than expected, according to IC distributors.

Both upstream and downstream companies in the whole electronics industry were clearing inventories in the fourth quarter of 2008 in response to the economic crisis, but some companies may have controlled too far, said the IC distributors

Since LCD TV makers cut orders in December, related driver IC companies saw an at least 30-40% sales decline for the month. However, demand has been stronger than market expectations, and so LCD TV makers are now aggressively rebuilding their inventories, while IC distributors are hurrying to place orders with component makers.






11/1 2009 11:09 le 0953



det er vigtigt at forstå lagercyklen i elektronik sektoren, der er den største sektor i verden og dækker alt fra PC, mobiltelefoner, TV/fladsklrme, stereo anlæg, DVD spillere og megegt andet samt komponneter i andre sektorer, automatisering osv

og de har ret lange fødekæder

medens en detail forhandler i usa kan regulere på sine lagre i forhold til det forventede salg, men stadig skal have produkter i butikken

så kan underleverandørerne i fødekæden og producenterne af de færdige produkter i endnu højere grad regulere på lagrene og enten have for lidt eller for meget på lager afhængig af deres forventninger til fremtiden og den har naturligt nok været meget pessimistisk her siden august/september inden den vigtige opbygning af lagre til julesalget, hvor elektronikprodukter jo efterhånden fører an i det man køber som julegave til familen, børnene eller til sig selv sammen med familien, det er vist meget normalt at man kan finde på at købe enten et fladskærms TV eller et mediecenter baseret på computer, og tilbehør som en fælles gave til hinanden i familien

de lager cykler er tradtionelt meget voldsomme og kommer altid uventet når man mindst regner med det

kernen i forståelsen af den konkrete virkelighed i disse svingninger er at langt det meste produceres i asien, så når amerikanske virksomheder sælger produkter i usa eller resten af verden så kommer de fra asien med et logo der svarer til den amerikanske producent

men det betyder også at konjunktur data ikke er med i de indikatorer man laver i usa for lagre mm eller kun i den grad at grossister og dedtail handelere i usa regulerer deres lagre

og de fleste grossister opererer også globalt og har de fleste lagre omkring produktionen i asien, der gør det vanskeligt at adskille lagre, der skal sendes til usa fra lagre, der skal sendes andre steder hen

de fleste kendte mærker som HP pc'er, Apple iphone og mac mm, alle mulige produkter som blackburry, mobiltelefoner, playstations, fladskærme mm produceres i asien og der er også meget software, der produceres i asien,

dell og nokia er nogle af de få mærker der producerer mest i deres respektive hjemlande, men det er undtagelserne og specielt dell er ved at udbygge produktionen i asien

men alligevel er de fleste komponenter de bruger til deres produkter også produceret i asien uanset om de samles i usa eller finland








13/1 2009 14:57 akademikeren 01009



Tesco on Tuesday confirmed its place towards the bottom end of the league table for UK food retailers over the Christmas period, reporting a 2.5 per cent increase in UK like-for-like sales in the seven weeks to January 10.

Rivals of Britain’s biggest retailer have outstripped Tesco’s sales figures. J Sainsbury last week reported a 5.3 per cent rise in like-for-like sales in the 13 weeks to January 3, while on Monday Aldi, the discount retailer, trumpeted a 25 per cent rise in its total UK sales during 2008.

EDITOR’S CHOICE
Game Group benefits from demise of rivals - Jan-13

Aldi UK sales soar by 25% - Jan-12

Retailers have worst Christmas on record - Jan-13

Morrisons to create 5,000 new jobs - Jan-12

In depth: UK retail results - Jan-13

Tesco’s 2.5 per cent increase was in line with market expectations, however, and the shares opened more than 2 per cent higher before settling back to stand 3.2p ahead at 353½p.

A Tesco executive pointed out that some of its rivals were still recovering from poorer performances in recent years, when Tesco was reporting much higher like-for-like sales. “We always planned for lower like-for-likes, he said. “We’ve set the business up for the conditions we face.”

He said that while the like-for-like figure was the lowest that Tesco had seen since the early 1990s, “it’s no coincidence, we were in recession then too.”

He said with new store openings this year the group would create 10,000 jobs in the UK in 2009, responding to an announcement on Monday from Wm Morrison that it would hire 5,000 extra staff in the UK this year.

Tesco’s international businesses helped the group report an 11.6 per cent rise in total sales in the seven-week period.

Sales outside the UK rose 32.7 per cent, aided on translation into sterling by the decline in the pound. With its international sales and its range of on-line sales and financial services in the UK, the executive said Tesco was a more broadly-based business.

Tesco described its UK performance as “steady” and said the stronger growth in volumes and customer numbers it had reported in its third quarter had continued.

In December it said that 300,000 extra shoppers were coming to Tesco stores every week, in part attracted by a range of “discounter” brands launched in the autumn. The executive said that over the Christmas period, sales of its “Finest” ranges improved as people treated themselves, but “as soon as Christmas was over that reversed” and sales of discount ranges increased.

Sales of non-food items, which had been slightly negative in the third quarter, picked up over Christmas. The recent reduction in VAT also affected the sales figure, and but for the change the rise would have been 3.5 per cent. Sales of laptops, televisions and digital photo-frames did well at Christmas, while duvet sales rose when the cold weather arrived at new year.

Outside the UK, Tesco said economic conditions were worsening in all its markets. Even so. sales in Asia were particularly strong, rising 43 per cent, with the integration of the Homever stores acquired in South Korea going well. European sales rose 24 per cent, a slower rate than in the third quarter, as trading became tougher in central Europe and Ireland.

The Fresh’n’Easy chain in the US was “coping well with a severe downturn in the West Coast markets in which it trades,” Tesco said. Two of its main centres, Las Vegas and Phoenix, were the worst hit parts of the US. The chain is continuing to expand with two stores opening a week and the offer has been adjusted to meet customer reactions.

The chain, opened to much scepticism, was achieving “strongly double-digit” like-for-like growth in the 28 stores which had been open for more than a year, Tesco said.

Analysts’ reaction was muted. The retail team at Oriel Securities called the performance “the worst of the big four”. They said “we expect Tesco to continue to lash out on price. We are concerned about the margin picture for the wider industry.”

Freddie George, at Seymour Pierce, said “the UK figures were disappointing, but in line with expectations.”



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