all St Week Ahead - Stocks bulls may hit the pause button
Fri Mar 27, 2009 5:50pm EDT Email | Print | Share | Reprints | Single Page [-] Text [+]
By Ellis Mnyandu
NEW YORK, March 27 (Reuters) - U.S. stocks are set to run into some turbulence next week as investors pause to gauge if profit expectations and economic prospects will justify the market's further advance from the 12-year lows touched earlier this month.
Since hitting those significant lows, the market has rallied strongly, lifting the benchmark S&P 500 .SPX more than 20 percent, amid burgeoning hopes that fallout from the economic slump may be subsiding.
"Consolidation will not be a bad thing," said Sasha Kostadinov, portfolio manager at Shaker Investments in Cleveland, Ohio, referring to the likelihood for the market to pause from the recent run-up next week. "I am continuing to look for signs that things aren't getting worse," he added.
Barring any shocks early in the week, the benchmark S&P 500 could close March with its biggest monthly gain in about two decades. With an even more bullish footing at month's end, the market could be propelled to its best monthly advance in 22 years.
Besides a deluge of economic data, comments from companies in the run-up to the start of the first-quarter earnings reporting season are also expected to command attention. Additionally, any developments from Thursday's G20 Summit in London could also set the tone.
"The market will be looking for continued 'green shoots' that things continue to improve on a marginal basis, either slower rates of decline or actual improvement," said Bucky Hellwig, senior vice president at Morgan Asset Management, in Birmingham, Alabama.
"To the extent that that is reinforced by the data, it should benefit the stock market. But on the other hand, if we get some negative surprises, the whole question of when the economy is turning or if it is turning will be brought back into the discussion," he said.
Reports that have helped fuel hopes of some stabilization in the economy in recent days include unexpectedly strong February new and existing home sales as well as a slightly less dire than expected reading on fourth-quarter gross domestic product.
The release of a long-awaited U.S. government plan to rid bank balance sheets of money-losing "toxic" assets has also been a big spur.
The highlight in the upcoming week's economic calendar is perhaps Friday's March non-farm payrolls report from the Labor Department, along with a March reading on the health of the vast services sector from the Institute for Supply Management (ISM).
February pending home sales, the March ADP employment data and the ISM's gauge of U.S. manufacturing are due on Wednesday. The day before that investors will sift through the March reading on U.S. Midwest manufacturing activity, the January S&P/Case-Shiller home price index and March consumer confidence.
Analysts said there was an emerging consensus that economic data could not get much worse, opening the door to possibly more gains, but the extent of the recent run-up also made it likely that stocks may consolidate gains and see some profit-taking.
"We are now in a position where it is hard for data to come worse than expected," said Chip Hanlon, president Delta Global Advisors, Inc in Huntington Beach, California.
"And from the corporate level we're even seeing positive surprises. Not necessarily good numbers, but not as bad as expected. I don't think next week economic data is a big cause for concern but it would be better if more profit taking took place and we backed up a little bit," he added.
Investors indeed opted to book profits from the recent rally, sending U.S. stocks lower at Friday's closing. But indexes still notched solid gains on the week, with the Dow Jones industrial average .DJI up almost 7 percent, the S&P 500 .SPX up 6.2 percent and the Nasdaq .IXIC up 6 percent.
The quarterly earnings reporting season begins in earnest on April 7 when aluminum producer Alcoa Inc (AA.N) a Dow component posts its results after the market's close.
As such, investors may hang on every word of the corporate outlooks that could come as early as next week.
According to the latest Thomson Reuters data, first-quarter earnings for the S&P 500 should drop 35.6 percent from a year earlier, marking the longest streak of negative growth since Thomson Reuters began tracking the data in 1998. For the earnings diary, see [RESF/US]
The Federal Reserve speakers' roster includes a speech by Chairman Ben Bernanke on Friday, April 3, on the Fed's balance sheet at an event in Charlotte, North Carolina. For the full Fed diary, see [ID:nN2434770] (For the economic diary and the Reuters poll of economists' forecasts, see [ECI/US]) (Wall St Week Ahead runs weekly. Questions or comments on this one can be e-mailed to: ellis.mnyandu(at)thomsonreuters.com)
Fri Mar 27, 2009 5:50pm EDT Email | Print | Share | Reprints | Single Page [-] Text [+]
By Ellis Mnyandu
NEW YORK, March 27 (Reuters) - U.S. stocks are set to run into some turbulence next week as investors pause to gauge if profit expectations and economic prospects will justify the market's further advance from the 12-year lows touched earlier this month.
Since hitting those significant lows, the market has rallied strongly, lifting the benchmark S&P 500 .SPX more than 20 percent, amid burgeoning hopes that fallout from the economic slump may be subsiding.
"Consolidation will not be a bad thing," said Sasha Kostadinov, portfolio manager at Shaker Investments in Cleveland, Ohio, referring to the likelihood for the market to pause from the recent run-up next week. "I am continuing to look for signs that things aren't getting worse," he added.
Barring any shocks early in the week, the benchmark S&P 500 could close March with its biggest monthly gain in about two decades. With an even more bullish footing at month's end, the market could be propelled to its best monthly advance in 22 years.
Besides a deluge of economic data, comments from companies in the run-up to the start of the first-quarter earnings reporting season are also expected to command attention. Additionally, any developments from Thursday's G20 Summit in London could also set the tone.
"The market will be looking for continued 'green shoots' that things continue to improve on a marginal basis, either slower rates of decline or actual improvement," said Bucky Hellwig, senior vice president at Morgan Asset Management, in Birmingham, Alabama.
"To the extent that that is reinforced by the data, it should benefit the stock market. But on the other hand, if we get some negative surprises, the whole question of when the economy is turning or if it is turning will be brought back into the discussion," he said.
Reports that have helped fuel hopes of some stabilization in the economy in recent days include unexpectedly strong February new and existing home sales as well as a slightly less dire than expected reading on fourth-quarter gross domestic product.
The release of a long-awaited U.S. government plan to rid bank balance sheets of money-losing "toxic" assets has also been a big spur.
The highlight in the upcoming week's economic calendar is perhaps Friday's March non-farm payrolls report from the Labor Department, along with a March reading on the health of the vast services sector from the Institute for Supply Management (ISM).
February pending home sales, the March ADP employment data and the ISM's gauge of U.S. manufacturing are due on Wednesday. The day before that investors will sift through the March reading on U.S. Midwest manufacturing activity, the January S&P/Case-Shiller home price index and March consumer confidence.
Analysts said there was an emerging consensus that economic data could not get much worse, opening the door to possibly more gains, but the extent of the recent run-up also made it likely that stocks may consolidate gains and see some profit-taking.
"We are now in a position where it is hard for data to come worse than expected," said Chip Hanlon, president Delta Global Advisors, Inc in Huntington Beach, California.
"And from the corporate level we're even seeing positive surprises. Not necessarily good numbers, but not as bad as expected. I don't think next week economic data is a big cause for concern but it would be better if more profit taking took place and we backed up a little bit," he added.
Investors indeed opted to book profits from the recent rally, sending U.S. stocks lower at Friday's closing. But indexes still notched solid gains on the week, with the Dow Jones industrial average .DJI up almost 7 percent, the S&P 500 .SPX up 6.2 percent and the Nasdaq .IXIC up 6 percent.
The quarterly earnings reporting season begins in earnest on April 7 when aluminum producer Alcoa Inc (AA.N) a Dow component posts its results after the market's close.
As such, investors may hang on every word of the corporate outlooks that could come as early as next week.
According to the latest Thomson Reuters data, first-quarter earnings for the S&P 500 should drop 35.6 percent from a year earlier, marking the longest streak of negative growth since Thomson Reuters began tracking the data in 1998. For the earnings diary, see [RESF/US]
The Federal Reserve speakers' roster includes a speech by Chairman Ben Bernanke on Friday, April 3, on the Fed's balance sheet at an event in Charlotte, North Carolina. For the full Fed diary, see [ID:nN2434770] (For the economic diary and the Reuters poll of economists' forecasts, see [ECI/US]) (Wall St Week Ahead runs weekly. Questions or comments on this one can be e-mailed to: ellis.mnyandu(at)thomsonreuters.com)
28/3 2009 17:58 Stinker 0
6151 Den seneste tids kursstigninger fordeler sig ikke særlig jævnt, og faktisk er det så langt fra alle aktier, der overhovedet har deltaget i rallyet.
For så vidt angår de selskaber, der har klaret sig bedst, men for hvilke der samtidig egentlig ikke er ændret på de fundamentale forhold (eks. Danske Bank), skal der næppe meget til førend investorerne reber sejlene og rømmer skuden. Her kan man vel ligefrem forvente, at dette vil puste nyt liv i spekulationer vedr. rædselsscenarierne.
Konsekvensen kan så blive at aktier, der ikke har taget del i rallyet, vil opleve forøget købsinteresse. Som Genmab-aktionær kan man jo yderligere håbe, at opmærksomheden i denne forbindelse vil rette sig mod mere defensive aktier (med indlagt super-boost, dobbelt turbo og den seneste landvinding fra F1 - KERS).
Kommer der dårlige tal, som kan så tvivl om, hvorvidt vi har passeret bunden i markedet, vil det meste sikkert kunne imødese en krank skæbne.
Omvendt må man forvente at de institutionelle investorer, som tilsyneladende i hovedsagen fortsat opholder sig på sidelinien, vil begynde at få klamme hænder, dersom gode tal fortsætter med at pege mod bedre tider. Skal disse investorer ind i et i forvejen positivt orienteret marked, kan det vel vise sig, at rallyet slet ikke er begyndt endnu.
Med lommen fuld af Gen og Ges har jeg dog tænkt mig at lade hånt om alt det ovenstående, mens jeg krydser fingre og glæder mig til Super-Tuesday!
For så vidt angår de selskaber, der har klaret sig bedst, men for hvilke der samtidig egentlig ikke er ændret på de fundamentale forhold (eks. Danske Bank), skal der næppe meget til førend investorerne reber sejlene og rømmer skuden. Her kan man vel ligefrem forvente, at dette vil puste nyt liv i spekulationer vedr. rædselsscenarierne.
Konsekvensen kan så blive at aktier, der ikke har taget del i rallyet, vil opleve forøget købsinteresse. Som Genmab-aktionær kan man jo yderligere håbe, at opmærksomheden i denne forbindelse vil rette sig mod mere defensive aktier (med indlagt super-boost, dobbelt turbo og den seneste landvinding fra F1 - KERS).
Kommer der dårlige tal, som kan så tvivl om, hvorvidt vi har passeret bunden i markedet, vil det meste sikkert kunne imødese en krank skæbne.
Omvendt må man forvente at de institutionelle investorer, som tilsyneladende i hovedsagen fortsat opholder sig på sidelinien, vil begynde at få klamme hænder, dersom gode tal fortsætter med at pege mod bedre tider. Skal disse investorer ind i et i forvejen positivt orienteret marked, kan det vel vise sig, at rallyet slet ikke er begyndt endnu.
Med lommen fuld af Gen og Ges har jeg dog tænkt mig at lade hånt om alt det ovenstående, mens jeg krydser fingre og glæder mig til Super-Tuesday!
28/3 2009 21:17 alpehue 06156 Uden, at gåe i detaljer, så er rallyet båret af primært US-finans. Det kan man have forskellige holdninger til, om er fundamentalt eller psykologisk baseret.
Jeg mener panik i håb om Obama effekter.
Dansk finans er på rø...
http://borsen.dk/investor/nyhed/154385/
Nedtur mandag (er forberedt solgte 50% fredag morgen).
Først Finans, så dem, der tog mest derefter.
Købskandidater de defensive, herunder Novo, som dog også er steget pænt pga. håbet FDA 2.april.
Genmab er upåvirket, og kan måske hente noget.
VWS er steget trods advarsler, så den går nok lidt ned.
Solenergi er steget for meget, men har en fremtid.
Lidt sidelinje er vel rimeligt fornuftigt lige nu ?
Jeg mener panik i håb om Obama effekter.
Dansk finans er på rø...
http://borsen.dk/investor/nyhed/154385/
Nedtur mandag (er forberedt solgte 50% fredag morgen).
Først Finans, så dem, der tog mest derefter.
Købskandidater de defensive, herunder Novo, som dog også er steget pænt pga. håbet FDA 2.april.
Genmab er upåvirket, og kan måske hente noget.
VWS er steget trods advarsler, så den går nok lidt ned.
Solenergi er steget for meget, men har en fremtid.
Lidt sidelinje er vel rimeligt fornuftigt lige nu ?
29/3 2009 00:12 le 06168 der har været meget store stigninger på kort tid og niveauet er stadig lavt
men det vil være naturligt med noget profittaking i næste uge
og de såkaldte 'gode' nøgletal på bl.a. boligområdet synes jeg ikke er spor gode, tværtimod, de er lige så dårlige som de har været hele tiden
og bilsalget ser ikke ud til at rette sig i marts heller
så man skal nok regne med at den overdrevne optimisme baseret på bankernes bedre udmeldinger og håb om en bedre fremtid med geithners indgreb løber lidt ud i sandet
men det betyder ikke at jeg ikke tror markedet kan fortsætte længere op de næste måneder, men på kort sigt skal vi nok have en korrektion nedad igen først
men nu gør jeg jo ikke så meget i ultrakortsigtede spekulationer og mener derfor stadig man kan samle op i små poster i aktier man synes der er billige og som man tror på på længere sigt
men det vil være naturligt med noget profittaking i næste uge
og de såkaldte 'gode' nøgletal på bl.a. boligområdet synes jeg ikke er spor gode, tværtimod, de er lige så dårlige som de har været hele tiden
og bilsalget ser ikke ud til at rette sig i marts heller
så man skal nok regne med at den overdrevne optimisme baseret på bankernes bedre udmeldinger og håb om en bedre fremtid med geithners indgreb løber lidt ud i sandet
men det betyder ikke at jeg ikke tror markedet kan fortsætte længere op de næste måneder, men på kort sigt skal vi nok have en korrektion nedad igen først
men nu gør jeg jo ikke så meget i ultrakortsigtede spekulationer og mener derfor stadig man kan samle op i små poster i aktier man synes der er billige og som man tror på på længere sigt
29/3 2009 00:38 le 06169 problemet med geithners 'plan' er uden tvivl at det nok ikke kan lade sig gøre at få de private investorer til at deltage i opkøbsplanerne i nævneværdigt omfang, så det hele stadig hænger på budgettet og især på federal reserve
og det vil udløse skuffelser i aktiemarkedet i næste uge
hvor længe det så varer og hvor meget vi kan korrigere nedad igen vil jeg som sagt ikke prøve at spå om, for det ved jeg ikke noget om
og det vil udløse skuffelser i aktiemarkedet i næste uge
hvor længe det så varer og hvor meget vi kan korrigere nedad igen vil jeg som sagt ikke prøve at spå om, for det ved jeg ikke noget om
29/3 2009 23:16 le 06248 iøvrigt mener jeg ikke man skal beskæftige sig med 'hvad aktierne skal gøre i næste uge'
men beskæftige sig med at finde de rigtige aktier i de rigtige sektorer, der vil stige 1000% det næste 1-2 års tid
og så slet ikke gå op i de kortsigtede udsving og bare ignorere dem
dem kan man ikke ramme alligevel og de kommer helt tilfældigt og TA hjælper slet ikke
men beskæftige sig med at finde de rigtige aktier i de rigtige sektorer, der vil stige 1000% det næste 1-2 års tid
og så slet ikke gå op i de kortsigtede udsving og bare ignorere dem
dem kan man ikke ramme alligevel og de kommer helt tilfældigt og TA hjælper slet ikke
