Redeye RESEARCH UPDATE 2024-02-05
Hansa Biopharma: Improved sales prospects
https://www.redeye.se/research/974575/hansa-biopharma-improved-sales-prospects
Hansa Biopharma: Improved sales prospects
https://www.redeye.se/research/974575/hansa-biopharma-improved-sales-prospects
5/2 2024 16:56 ProInvestorNEWS 1
118551 Diverse analytikerkommentarer og analyse. (Klik på billerne for at gøre dem større).
5/2 2024 17:01 ProInvestorNEWS 1118554 Financial update for 4Q. Hansa Biopharma recorded a total revenue of SEK 50.4M (SEK 43M in product sales and SEK
7M under agreement with Sarepta) in 4Q23, much higher than our estimate of SEK 41.3M and representing a ~63% increase
compared to SEK30.8M in 4Q22. The total revenue of Idefirix sales reached SEK 103.7M vs SEK 86.7M. The total revenue in
2023 was WEK 134.1M, lower than SEK 154.5M in 2022, due to the decrease in contract revenue of SEK 30.4M compared to
SEK 67.8M in 2022. The company posted a loss per share of SEK 2.40 in 4Q23 and SEK 15.86 in 2023, both lower than our
estimate of loss per share. In 4Q22 and 2022, the EPS losses were SEK 3.22 and SEK 13.6, respectively. SG&A expenses
rose to SEK 106M in 4Q23 (v.s. SEK 83.7M in Q422), and the expenses for 2023 rose to SEK 450.5M (v.s. SEK 337.9M), lower
than our estimate of SEK 127M and SEK 471M, respectively. The increase in SG&A expenses was mainly driven by expanded
commercial activities and organizational expansion related to the launch of Idefirix in Europe. R&D grew to SEK 108.3M in
4Q23(vs. SEK 92.3M in 4Q22) and SEK 411.3M in 2023 (SEK 337.9M in 2022), in line with our estimate of SEK 106M and
SEK 409M, respectively. The expenses were driven by conducting the U.S. ConfldeS study, EMA post-approval commitments,
anti-GBM phase 3 study, and HNSA-5487 program development. At the end of 2023, the company's cash, cash equivalents,
and investments stood at SEK 732.1M.
Valuation and Risks. Our Buy rating and price target for Hansa of SEK174 are based on our sum-of-the-parts NPV valuation
for each of the company's indications for imlifidase: highly sensitized kidney transplants, Goodpasture syndrome, Ab mediated
kidney rejection, Guillain-Barré syndrome, and as a pretreatment for Sarepta's (SRPT; not rated) gene therapies in LimbGirdle
and Duchene muscular dystrophy. Our DCF model utilizes a terminal decline rate of 5% and a discount rate of 10.4%, based
on the company's WACC (Beta of 1.1, risk-free rate of return of 3.5% and market premium of 6.3%). We adjust each pipeline
asset for the probability of success (PoS) with highly sensitized kidney transplants at 75% as a Phase 3 asset already approved
in the EU, Goodpasture syndrome at 60% as a Phase 3 study was initiated last year, Ab mediated kidney rejection at 35% as
the asset has generated positive data in Phase 2 studies, GuillainBarré syndrome at 60% as Phase 2 studies are progressing
and the mechanism of action appears well suited for this indication, and pretreatment for gene therapies at 45% because while
we believe imlifidase is going to be highly efficacious at removing anti-vector Abs, we have some reservations about Sarepta's
gene therapy program. For the time being, we do not include other early-stage programs or collaborations but look to do so in
the future. Risks include (i) financial, because the company has capital needs that exceed current cash balance; (ii) dilutive,
as Hansa is likely going to need to raise additional capital; (iii) reimbursement, because the high cost of imlifidase may cause
payors to resist coverage; (iv) regulatory, because imlifidase only has conditional approval in the EU and no US approval; and
(v) partnership, as the Sarepta agreement, a major component of our valuation, depends heavily on Sarepta's ability to execute.
Hansa Biopharma AB February 5, 2024
H.C. WAINWRIGHT & CO. EQUITY RESEARCH
20240202_HNSA_WB_Strong_Fourth_Qua..20240205_HNSA_HCW_4Q_Strength_Prov..
7M under agreement with Sarepta) in 4Q23, much higher than our estimate of SEK 41.3M and representing a ~63% increase
compared to SEK30.8M in 4Q22. The total revenue of Idefirix sales reached SEK 103.7M vs SEK 86.7M. The total revenue in
2023 was WEK 134.1M, lower than SEK 154.5M in 2022, due to the decrease in contract revenue of SEK 30.4M compared to
SEK 67.8M in 2022. The company posted a loss per share of SEK 2.40 in 4Q23 and SEK 15.86 in 2023, both lower than our
estimate of loss per share. In 4Q22 and 2022, the EPS losses were SEK 3.22 and SEK 13.6, respectively. SG&A expenses
rose to SEK 106M in 4Q23 (v.s. SEK 83.7M in Q422), and the expenses for 2023 rose to SEK 450.5M (v.s. SEK 337.9M), lower
than our estimate of SEK 127M and SEK 471M, respectively. The increase in SG&A expenses was mainly driven by expanded
commercial activities and organizational expansion related to the launch of Idefirix in Europe. R&D grew to SEK 108.3M in
4Q23(vs. SEK 92.3M in 4Q22) and SEK 411.3M in 2023 (SEK 337.9M in 2022), in line with our estimate of SEK 106M and
SEK 409M, respectively. The expenses were driven by conducting the U.S. ConfldeS study, EMA post-approval commitments,
anti-GBM phase 3 study, and HNSA-5487 program development. At the end of 2023, the company's cash, cash equivalents,
and investments stood at SEK 732.1M.
Valuation and Risks. Our Buy rating and price target for Hansa of SEK174 are based on our sum-of-the-parts NPV valuation
for each of the company's indications for imlifidase: highly sensitized kidney transplants, Goodpasture syndrome, Ab mediated
kidney rejection, Guillain-Barré syndrome, and as a pretreatment for Sarepta's (SRPT; not rated) gene therapies in LimbGirdle
and Duchene muscular dystrophy. Our DCF model utilizes a terminal decline rate of 5% and a discount rate of 10.4%, based
on the company's WACC (Beta of 1.1, risk-free rate of return of 3.5% and market premium of 6.3%). We adjust each pipeline
asset for the probability of success (PoS) with highly sensitized kidney transplants at 75% as a Phase 3 asset already approved
in the EU, Goodpasture syndrome at 60% as a Phase 3 study was initiated last year, Ab mediated kidney rejection at 35% as
the asset has generated positive data in Phase 2 studies, GuillainBarré syndrome at 60% as Phase 2 studies are progressing
and the mechanism of action appears well suited for this indication, and pretreatment for gene therapies at 45% because while
we believe imlifidase is going to be highly efficacious at removing anti-vector Abs, we have some reservations about Sarepta's
gene therapy program. For the time being, we do not include other early-stage programs or collaborations but look to do so in
the future. Risks include (i) financial, because the company has capital needs that exceed current cash balance; (ii) dilutive,
as Hansa is likely going to need to raise additional capital; (iii) reimbursement, because the high cost of imlifidase may cause
payors to resist coverage; (iv) regulatory, because imlifidase only has conditional approval in the EU and no US approval; and
(v) partnership, as the Sarepta agreement, a major component of our valuation, depends heavily on Sarepta's ability to execute.
Hansa Biopharma AB February 5, 2024
H.C. WAINWRIGHT & CO. EQUITY RESEARCH
20240202_HNSA_WB_Strong_Fourth_Qua..20240205_HNSA_HCW_4Q_Strength_Prov..