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Peter Schiff 3/16/09 - Schiff Report Video Blog


5122 Track 19/3 2009 19:45
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Peter Schiff 3/16/09 - Schiff Report Video Blog



19/3 2009 19:48 Track 05123



Der var lidt problemer med video linket - prøver igen:






20/3 2009 10:46 le 05183



interessant video

men jeg er ikke enig med peter schiff

han er en af dem, der gentager en mantra om at der altid er problemer i den amerikanske økonomi

og jeg kan ikke lide manden

han ved ikke hvad han snakker om



20/3 2009 10:52 le 05185



især er hans analyse af kina helt hen i vejret

han focuserer på kinas financiering af usa's gæld og lignende

faktum er jo at kina her deres evne til at investere i amerikanske statsobligationer pga deres eksport til usa og usa's forbrug og selvfølgelig også til europa og japan

han vender det hele på hovedet og virker en smule dum



20/3 2009 13:10 Track 05197



Det er naturligvis rigtig nok at pengene kommer fra USA og EU i form af betaling for varer. Men kinerserne lægger jo trods arbejdskraften til, så USA og EU forærer jo ikke pengene til kineserne?

Hvis man så også ser på det faktum, at USA faktisk printer en masse penge, som i praktisk faktisk er ren foræring for USA, så ser perspektivet jo lidt overledes us - synes jeg...

Men, på et punkt vil jeg give dig fuldkommen ret og det er at både USA og EU har foræret Kina og andre Asiatiske lande en enorm mængde viden og uddannelse i form af moderne teknologi og infrastruktur produkter. Det synes jeg alle kritikere på begge sider glemmer. På det punkt bør Kina og Asiaterne være mere end taknemmelige for de har fået muligheden for historisk kæmpespring i levestandard, selv efter at de omlægger deres økonomi mere til hjemmemarkedet og Asien. Det betragter jeg som en ren foræring.



20/3 2009 15:24 le 05206



ja og den kinesiske valuta er voldsomt undervurderet

og skal selvfølgelig stige en dag

og det betyder at dollaren overfor kina vil blive devalueret voldsom, men ikke over for europa

det er kinas problem hvordan de vil anbringe de penge de får løbende på grund af handelsoverskuddet og når de endeligt revaluerer kraftigt må de bare acceptere at de ikke kan anbringe pengene nogen steder udover i deres eget hjemland, hvis de ikke ønsker en forringelse af værdien pga revaluering




20/3 2009 17:37 Track 05212



Problematikken omkring Yuan´s værdisætning er jeg også enig i bliver ignoreret og underkendt. Desværre tror den problemstilling er mere omfattende end de fleste inklusiv mig selv er ordentlig opmærksom på.

Har du et link til noget online med en liste over de forskellige konkrete problemer i den forbindelse?



21/3 2009 14:03 le 05241



jeg synes ikke man ser ret meget om det ret mange steder

jeg har haft synspunktet i en række år og selvfølgelig i takt med boomet i kina kunnet se at behovet for en revaluering af yuanen ville og skulle blive større løbende

det man ser mest om er at der blver skrevet så meget om et dollarkollaps, hvor man så glememr at det ikke er over for euro eller yen, men overfor yuan og andre valutaer i hurtigtvoksende lande, hvor man ge af den slags har inflation på et niveau, der modvirker behovdet for revaluering, men kina har jo allerede fået vendt inflationen fra olieprisen, fødevarerne og boomet til en mild form for deflation




21/3 2009 16:06 05256



Lige netop dollar/yuan er jo et intenst politisk spil mellem US og Kina, så derfor skal man kigge efter politiske signaler, der antyder ændring. Jeg synes den er rigtigt spændende at følge, så det kan være jeg bruge lidt tid på det fremover.



21/3 2009 16:53 le 05257



nu hvor geithner er blevet en smule upopulær

skal man hæfte sig ved at han startede med at sige at kina manipulerede yen kursen

hvilket kina benægtede

og det var et tabu emne under bush

så derfor er det nok derfor at ikke så mange har skrevet om det rundt omkring

og han vil nok også være tilbageholdende med at tale mere om det indtil han får mere succes som treasury chef

og jeg tror ikke obama vil udtale sig meget om det og hvad hillary tør sige officielt er nok heller ikke ret meget

men forskellen mellem købekraftskorrigeret GNP i kina og GNP baseret på eksisterende valutakurser siger lidt om hvor meget valutakursen er undervurderet og især er det slet ikke sikkert at den købekraftkorrigerede beregning er korrekt

https://www.cia.gov/library/publications/the-world-factbook/rankorder/2001rank.html

https://www.cia.gov/library/publications/the-world-factbook/fields/2195.html

for målt på produktion i de fleste nøglebrancher er kina op til en faktor 2-4 gange så høj som usa, især boligbyggeriet, hvor det er en faktor 10 målt på areal



21/3 2009 17:05 05258



super indlæg LE, der lærte jeg lige en del nyt



21/3 2009 21:48 le 05267



Milestone for Chinese currency as dollar slips again
By David Barboza Published: April 10, 2008

BEIJING: China's currency, the yuan, rose against the dollar Thursday, reaching a milestone that is just the latest sign of this country's growing economic power.

For the first time in more than a decade, the dollar bought less than 7 yuan, ending the day close to 6.9920, a situation that specialists say will probably make Chinese-made goods more expensive for American consumers and possibly contribute to inflation in the United States and countries with dollar-based currencies.

The gains for the Chinese currency have come after Beijing's decision to end a longstanding peg to the dollar in July 2005, when a dollar bought about 8.3 yuan, also known as renminbi.

Beijing lifted the peg after American and European officials had complained for years that the yuan was set artificially low, making Chinese goods less expensive than they would normally be and giving China an unfair trade advantage.

The result, many officials said, was massive trade surpluses for China and job losses for Americans and Europeans who could not compete.

Today in Business with Reuters
Newly cheap natural gas gains role as economic stimulantU.S. to introduce plan for troubled mortgagesWorld Bank chief sees economy shrinking 1 percent to 2 percent in 2009But this year, partly because of soaring inflation at home and fears the Chinese economy could be overheating, China's leaders have allowed their currency to appreciate more quickly against the dollar.

The yuan has gained about 16 percent against the dollar since the peg ended in 2005, including about 4.5 percent this year.

Some analysts believe the yuan will continue to rise, with the dollar possibly falling to 6.5 yuan by the end of the year.

The changes are coming as the dollar also weakens against other currencies, including the euro, sapping American buying power overseas.

Indeed, despite the yuan's rise against the dollar, the Chinese currency has actually weakened against the euro in the last year. European officials continue to worry about growing trade deficits with China.

For China, though, the yuan's climb against the dollar is partially helping to offset the rising cost of goods it imports - like oil, grains and raw materials - many of which are priced in dollars.

"China wants to slow down the pace of rising commodity prices, and curb inflation," said Li Daokui, an economist at Tsinghua University in Beijing.

"Meanwhile," he said, "the appreciating renminbi is a signal the Chinese government is sending to the export companies to switch away from the United States and other overseas markets and turn toward the domestic market."

Also, the cost of doing business in China just got more expensive for American companies operating Chinese factories that ship goods to the United States.

Many specialists believe the shifting fortunes of the yuan and the dollar are healthy for the global economy because they reflect the reality of a weakening American economy and China's growing wealth.

Before, many economists complained, America was consuming far too much and China was overproducing and not consuming enough.

"This is helping rebalance the global economy," said Dong Tao, an economist at Credit Suisse. "But this is also very significant for China's export sector. We forecast that as many as one third of export manufacturers may close down over the next three years."

The closures, he said, may be the result of a loss of competitiveness for low-cost manufacturers in China, many of whom operate on thin margins and sell low-cost goods to the United States.

For their part, U.S. officials have largely welcomed the rise of the yuan, saying the gains could help dampen America's widening trade deficit with China and also make American goods more attractive to Chinese consumers.

Terms of Use



21/3 2009 21:56 le 05268



et andet synspunkt fra seeking alpha

There is mounting evidence that a freely floating Chinese currency will actually drop in value and make Chinese exports cheaper. In his confirmation hearings, Tim Geithner espoused the U.S. “Conventional Wisdom” that China is an unfair trade competitor because it manipulates its currency down in value so that its exports are artificially cheap. The Conventional Wisdom is that a freely floating Yuan will increase in value making Chinese goods more expensive and helping U.S. manufacturers. But, what if Geithner is wrong and a freely exchangeable Yuan does the opposite of what everyone expects?

Geithner is definitely correct when he says that the Chinese are currency manipulators. After all, the Chinese government decides on Yuan-Dollar exchange rates, and then uses currency controls to ensure that targets are achieved. But, what is unclear is that a freely floating and exchangeable Yuan will increase in value.

The principal evidence supporting Geithner’s view that the Yuan is too cheap is that United States manufacturers have been losing business to Chinese manufacturers for a long time. Economists that support Geithner’s position point to persistent Chinese trade surpluses and conclude that currency manipulation must be taking place. However, a large current account surplus isn’t in of itself sufficient to cause the Yuan to appreciate. For the Yuan to increase in value, investors and Chinese citizens still must want to own Yuan rather than Dollars, Yen or Euros.

Yuan appreciation advocates ignore underlying economic reasons that make Chinese goods cheap - like near slave wages, cost savings at the expense of the environment, poor worker safety and cheap land. On Sunday, February 1, the London Times reported

…a growing number of economists say…that it is not the exchange rate but years of sweatshop wages and income inequality in China, which have distorted global competition and stifled domestic demand.


China critics who accuse the government of being an unfair trade competitor through currency manipulation disregard other facts suggesting China’s currency is overvalued and maybe by a lot.

First, a prerequisite for a strong currency is a strong government that is able to maintain social order. The Sunday London Times article, "Violent unrest rocks China as crisis hits," describes labor unrest, riots, state censorship, violence and class warfare The unmistakable conclusion of the London Times article is that the fabric of Chinese society is starting to come apart. The article provides scary and credible details of scores of events that undercut the Western image of an all-powerful Chinese government in control of society. The images presented by the London Times don’t provide a social backdrop for China, which is a prerequisite for a strong Yuan.

Second, as reported by the New York Times unemployment is soaring among migrant factory workers that make up the backbone of the Chinese manufacturing workforce. Rising unemployment and a crashing manufacturing sector aren’t typically indicators of a currency that is about to appreciate.

Third, investors have been fleeing China and the flow of export earnings into Yuan has slowed. As reported on February 2 in the International Herald Tribune:
In Shanghai, cash-rich Chinese companies are buying high-yield bonds of American companies in distress, and bringing home fewer of the dollars they earn abroad from exports.

And in Hong Kong, wealthy Chinese from the mainland are turning up in growing numbers at jewelry stores here seeking one thing: diamonds, big ones…

… Chinese citizens are starting to send more money out of the country and overseas investors are pulling money out of China while slowing their pace of new investments.

China still has torrents of cash pouring in from trade surpluses, as imports shrank faster than exports in the final months of last year. But that inflow has been nearly balanced in recent months by an unexpected outflow of private cash from the mainland and a slowing of investment into the mainland.

Officials… have said conspicuously little about capital flight in recent weeks.


A sure sign of an overvalued currency is capital flight. When investors, traders and citizens believe that a currency is sound, they do not flee to other currencies, gold, diamonds or U.S. junk bonds.

Fourth, many Sino experts believe that 30 years of currency controls have produced pent up demand in China’s new middle and upper class to invest outside of China. While some exporters and entrepreneurs have figured out ways to avoid government regulations and keep their profits outside of China, for the most part, foreign earnings have been brought back to China and converted into Yuan. However, if exporters were no longer compelled to convert their earnings to Yuan, and were freely allowed to invest outside of China, the floodgates would open and pent-up liquidity would pour out of China and into other currencies. And, the Yuan would depreciate in value.

Finally, on February 2, Reuters reported that a Central Military Commission was convened and determined that there was “slack management” in some of the ranks of the People’s Liberation Army (”PLA”) and that "…[all] military forces should ensure that they “uncompromisingly obey the Party and Central Military Commission’s command at any time and under any circumstances.” The Commission was convened because China faces “…growing unrest and …'multiple security threats.'" The Commission also called for “absolute obedience to the Communist Party."

The fact that the government needed to convene a military commission to make sure that the PLA obeys its orders is surprising. China has two major centers of power, the Chinese Communist Party and the PLA. The Commission’s statements indicate tension between the two organizations and the possibility of conflict within the Chinese establishment. Strong currencies don’t survive when the Army resists following the orders of civilian authorities.

Tim Geithner had better hope that he doesn’t get what he wants, and that the Chinese don’t make the Yuan freely convertible, or its crashing value may be an unwelcome surprise to the U.S. economy.



21/3 2009 22:07 le 05270



lidt historie fra før jeg blev født

The Chinese invented the first paper money in the eighth or ninth century. Earlier there was a rustic bartering system in place. This paper money or Flying Money was a precursor of the widely circulated and highly effective Mongolian Silk Notes of 1294. Highly impressed Marco Polo had written whole chapters on this unique concept. The Ming Dynasty issued paper money called “ Precious Note of Great Ming ” in around 1375. However unlike the silk notes , the circulation of this currency was not handled efficiently, creating enormous inflation . Ironically, Paper money officially returned to China under the European Influence .

The People's Republic of China officially first issued the Renminbi , i.e. People's Currency in December 1948. More popularly known as RMB , the new currency was meant to control the super inflation that happened in the post-Kuomintang era. The basic unit is commonly known as the New Yuan or Renminbi Yuan , Yuan literally meaning “round” in Chinese . The symbol is ¥.

¥0.1 Yuan is known as 1 Jiao .

¥0.01 Yuan is known as 1 Fen .

Initially, the value of >RMB was absurdly high in comparison to the US Dollar . After strict control and check, according to current approximation, 1 USD is equal to 1.8 RMB .

The RMB banknotes have been issued five times since 1948. The Banknotes have a picture of Chairman Mao Zedong and the text “ Zhongguo Renmin Yinhang ” on them.

The peopls's Bank of China introduced the first series during the Chinese Civil War on December 1948. The banknotes ranged from ¥1 to ¥50000 in 12 denominations and 62 designs. These Banknotes are now obsolete and have been withdrawn. In 1955, the second series was introduced. The valuation of the earlier series changed, whereby a ¥10000 banknote from the first series was equivalent to a ¥1 in the new series. The denomination was also printed in Uygur, Tibetan and Mongolian Languages. There were 11 dominations from ¥0.01 to ¥10. The third series was introduced in 1962, there were 7 denominations introduced from ¥0.1 to ¥10. The third series has also been completely phased out. The fourth series was introduced in phases from 1987 to 1997. There were 9 denominations with new banknotes in ¥50 and ¥100. There were also new coins in the denominations of ¥0.1, ¥0.5 and ¥1. The fifth series introduced in 1999 is currently in circulation. The largest denomination is the ¥100 note and the smallest coin having a value of ¥0.1. The new banknotes have pictures of Deng Xiaoping , Sun Yet-sen and Chiang Kai-shek along with Mao Zedong .

From 1979 onwards, China minted special coins to celebrate the New Year. The coins usually feature a famous Chinese monument on one side and the appropriate animal from the Chinese zodiac on the reverse



22/3 2009 12:54 Track 05300



Le, tak for links/baggrund, jeg vender lige tilbage på et tidspunkt omkring CNY og andre valutaer. Valuta devaluering ser ud til at kunne afløse toldmure som vor tids protektionisme, selv schweizerne prøver at devaluere CHF.

Temaet er "hot", som du siger og for få snakker om det, måske fordi alle nu vil devaluere selv for at redde skindet?/! Sjovt hvordan alle politikerne "sværger" til at ville undgå protektionisme. Måske vil de bare undgå de synlige toldmure, men "usynlig" devaluering er OK? Bl.a. ved flere landes nationalbankers opkøb af statsobligationer.



23/3 2009 17:02 le 05429






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